FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Rapid Change

Cover
Contents
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Part I: Personal Traps: Individual Biases and Blocks to Seeing and Understanding Change
	Chapter 1: Looking Through Alien Eyes
		Figure-Ground
		Example #1: Male/Female
		Example #2: Youth/Aging
		Example #3: Able/Challenged
		Example #4: Stability/Transition
		Children Can Be Aliens
		The Lesson of Alien Eyes
	Chapter 2: Trend/Countertrend
		Example #1: No Responsibility Self-Reliance
		Example #2: The Sociology of Apology
		Example #3: The Emerging Diseases of Affluence
		Example #4: Technology, Thy Name Is Poetry
		Example #5: Consuming Versus Saving Safety
		Example #6: The Decline of Community and the Rise of a New Consumer Durable
		So Newton Was a Futurist
	Chapter 3: Substituting the Spiral for the Pendulum
		Example #1: The Social Fabric
		Example #2: Cycles in Business Oversight
		Example #3: The Markets
	Chapter 4: The Extremes Inform the Middle
		Example #1: Corporate Social Responsibility Versus Free-Market Capitalism
		Example #2: The Techies Versus the Luddites
		Example #3: Free Speech Versus Censorship
		Example #4: Traditional Versus Nontraditional Gender Roles
		How to Study and Use the Extremes
Part II: Organizational Traps: Institutional Biases and Blocks to Responding to Change
	Chapter 5: Efficiency Breeds Vulnerability
		Example #1: Acceleration Through Electronics
		Example #2: Efficiency in Government
		Example #3: Warped Speed
		The Continuing Importance of Redundancy
	Chapter 6: The Multiplier Effect of New Distribution Channels
		Example #1: Media
		Example #2: Print Versus the Internet
		Example #3: The Campus Versus Online Learning
		Example #4: Retailing
		Example #5: Health Care
		Choices and Options
		How Multiplication Can Help You See the Future
		Attention Is the Monetary Unit
	Chapter 7: Entropy
		Example #1: Taxation
		Example #2: The Internet
		Example #3: Addiction to Adrenaline
		Complexity and Entropy
	Chapter 8: Integrity Begets Quality 105 Example #1: Getting and Keeping a Customer
		Example #1: Getting and Keeping a Customer
		Example #2: Apple Juice Should Be Made from Apples
		Example #3: Do Unto Others...
		Surface Social Responsibility Is Not Integrity
		Stewardship and Integrity
Part III: Springing the Trap:Seeing the Big Picture
	Chapter 9: The Law of Large Numbers
		Example #1: Critical Mass
		Example #2: Peer Pressure
		Example #3: Bell-Shaped Curves
		What Lies Ahead
	Chapter 10: Demography
		Example #1: Demography and Islam
		Example #2: Why the Number of Youths Matters
		Example #3: Asian Demographics
		Example #4: Immigration
		Example #5: Aging
		Age and Relevance
		Example #6: “Ymigration”
		Example #7: The U.S. Becomes the Southern Hemisphere
		Example #8: The Burgeoning Global Middle Class
		Example # 9: Women
		Example #10: Marketing to Children
		Example #11: Where People Go
		Caveat on Demography
		Beware of Extrapolation
	Chapter 11: Compromise Versus Lowest Common Denominators
		Example #1: Employee Diversity
		Example #2: Majority Rules
		Example #3: International Conflict
		Example #4: When the Denominators Are 4 and 8
		Example #5: What’s in a Definition?
		Example #6: John and Mary Public
		The Bottom Line
Part IV: Imagining the Way: Using Metaphors to Free Your Mind
	Chapter 12: The Three-Legged Stools of the Political Agenda
		Example #1: The Foundation of the Republic
		Example #2: The Political Parties
		Example #3: The Male/Female Perspective
	Chapter 13: Right-of-Way
		Example #1: Customer-Centered Versus Sale-Centered
		Example #2: Tunnel Vision
		Example #3: The Infrastructure Dilemma
		Example #4: The Amazon River
		What Are Your Potential Rights-of-Way?
	Chapter 14: Football Meets Shopping
		We Always Shopped
		First Down
		Second Down
		Third Down
		Fourth Down
	Chapter 15: Managing by Harnessing Evolution
		The New Natural
		Example #1: Cross-Breeding to Manage the Biosphere
		Example #2: Evolution and the Management of Health and Social Services
		Example #3: Managing Telecom
		Example #4: Managing Biotech
		Example #5: The Business of Managing Human Evolution
		Survival of the Fittest
		The Next Big Management Tool
	Chapter 16: Self-Defeating and Self- Fulfilling Prophecies
		Example #1: Orwell and Gates
		Example #2: Government and Nongovernmental Organizations
		Example #3: Your Mind and Body
		Example #4: How to Make It Happen
Conclusion
	Anticipation Is Key
	What Type of Business Will Succeed?
	Question Consensus
References
Index
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