Future Oceans Warming Up, Rising High

The Future Oceans –Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour cover......Page 1
Members of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) (as on 1. January 2006)......Page 2
Title Page......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Acknowledgements......Page 5
Contents......Page 7
Tables......Page 10
Figures......Page 11
Boxes......Page 12
Bolstering the resilience of marine ecosystems......Page 13
Adopting innovative instruments of internationallaw for refugees from sea-level rise......Page 14
Imposing strict conditions upon methane hydrate mining......Page 15
Complementing the existing financing mechanisms......Page 16
Introduction 1......Page 17
The guard rail concept......Page 18
2.1.1 Rising water temperatures......Page 19
2.1.2 Retreat of Arctic sea ice......Page 20
2.1.3 Changes in ocean currents......Page 21
2.2.1 Natural climate variability......Page 23
2.2.2.1 Effects of water temperature on the physiology of marine organisms......Page 24
2.2.2.2 Phytoplankton and global primary production......Page 25
2.2.2.3 Zooplankton......Page 26
2.2.2.5 Ecosystem impacts......Page 27
2.3.1 Changes in fish populations......Page 28
2.3.2 Regional prognoses of impacts on fisheries......Page 29
2.4 In focus: Climate and coral reefs......Page 30
2.4.1 Warming impact on corals......Page 31
2.4.3 Measures for coral conservation......Page 32
2.5.2 Rationale and feasibility......Page 33
2.6 Recommendations for action: Improving the management of marine ecosystems......Page 34
Box 2.6-1 Maritime zones under international law......Page 39
2.6.2.6 Recommendations for action relating to marine protected areas......Page 40
2.6.1 Fisheries management......Page 35
2.6.2 Marine protected areas 2.6.2.1 Definition and motivation......Page 36
2.6.2.3 Present international law......Page 37
2.6.2.4 Marine protected areas in the high seas......Page 38
2.7 Research recommendations......Page 42
3.1.1.1 Lessons from Earth’s history......Page 45
3.1.1.2 Dynamics of the continental ice masses......Page 46
3.1.1.4 New estimates of sea-level rise......Page 48
3.1.2 Stronger tropical cyclones......Page 50
3.2.1 Biogeophysical impacts 3.2.1.1 Inundation due to sea-level rise......Page 52
3.2.1.2 Flooding as a result of storm surges......Page 53
3.2.1.3 Coastal erosion......Page 55
3.2.1.5 Biological impacts......Page 56
3.2.2 Socio-economic impacts 3.2.2.1 Impacts on people......Page 57
3.2.2.2 Economic damage......Page 60
3.3.2 Rationale......Page 61
3.3.3 Feasibility......Page 63
3.4.1.1Adaptation options: Classification and assessment......Page 64
Box 3.4-1
Potential for conflict over resettlement......Page 66
3.4.1.3 Implementing adaptation strategies......Page 67
Box 3.4-2
Coastal management on the German North Sea
coast......Page 68
3.4.1.4 Future challenges......Page 69
3.4.1.5 Financing adaptation measures in developing countries......Page 70
3.4.2.2 Submersion of (island) states......Page 72
3.4.2.4 Compensation for loss of land......Page 73
3.5 Research recommendations......Page 74
4.1.1
CO2 input......Page 77
4.1.2 Change in the carbonate budget......Page 78
4.2 Future development of the oceans as a carbon sink......Page 79
4.3.2 Effects on calcifying organisms......Page 81
4.3.3 Ecosystem structure and higher trophic levels......Page 82
4.4.1
Proposed guard rail......Page 84
4.4.2 Rationale and feasibility......Page 85
4.5.1 Reappraising the role of CO2 in climate protection policy......Page 86
4.5.2 Taking shipping sector emissions into account......Page 87
4.6 Research recommendations......Page 88
5.1.1 Potential and costs......Page 89
5.2 Ocean storage......Page 90
5.2.2 Impacts of CO2 storage on deep-sea organisms......Page 91
 5.3.1 CO2 injection into the geological sub-seabed......Page 92
Box 5.3-1 The Sleipner project......Page 93
Box 5.3-2
Marine renewables......Page 95
5.3.3.1 Provisions under the international law of the sea......Page 94
5.3.3.3 Instruments to regulate CO2 storage in the seabed......Page 96
5.4.1Prohibiting CO2 injection into the ocean......Page 97
5.5 Research recommendations......Page 98
6.1 The methane hydrate reservoir......Page 101
6.2.2 Effects of climate change on methane hydrates......Page 102
6.2.3 Mining of methane hydrates......Page 104
6.3 Possible results of methane release......Page 105
6.4 Recommendations for action: Preventing methane release......Page 106
6.5 Research recommendations......Page 107
Adopting innovative instruments of international law for refugees from sea-level rise......Page 109
Halting ocean acidification in time......Page 110
References 8......Page 111
Back Cover
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