Frontiers of Climate Modeling

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Preface......Page 9
Contributors......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 12
1.1 Earth’s climate system......Page 13
1.2 Elements of the climate system......Page 14
1.2.1 Physical system......Page 15
1.2.2 Chemical system......Page 21
1.3 Modeling the climate system......Page 23
1.4 Hierarchy of climate models......Page 25
1.5 Practical aspects to climate modeling......Page 27
1.6 Evaluation of Earth-system models......Page 29
1.7.1 Science issues......Page 33
1.7.3 Social issues......Page 35
References......Page 36
2.1 Introduction......Page 38
2.2 Fundamental radiative effects of increased greenhouse gases......Page 41
2.3 Water-vapor and cloud feedback mechanisms......Page 42
2.4 Snow, sea, and land-ice albedo feedbacks......Page 43
2.5 Energy-balance climate-model estimates......Page 44
2.6 Radiative-convective model estimates......Page 45
2.7 Simulations with comprehensive three-dimensional climate models......Page 49
2.8 Summary and discussion......Page 59
References......Page 61
3.1 Introduction......Page 64
3.2.1 Longwave radiation......Page 65
3.2.2 Shortwave radiation......Page 66
3.2.3 Sensitivity......Page 67
3.3 Time dependence......Page 68
3.3.1 Random forcing......Page 69
3.3.2 Albedo feedback......Page 70
3.4.1 Length scale......Page 71
3.4.2 Seasonal cycle......Page 72
3.4.3 Comparison with GCM simulations......Page 73
3.4.4 Tuned simulations with EBCMs......Page 74
3.5.1 Paleoclimatology......Page 75
3.5.3 Signal detection in the climate system......Page 81
References......Page 82
4.1 Introduction......Page 85
4.2 The empirical record......Page 88
4.3.1 Intermediate coupled models......Page 96
4.3.2 Delayed and recharge oscillators......Page 98
4.4 Extra-tropical variability......Page 99
4.4.1 Analogy models......Page 102
4.4.2 Oceanic models with deterministic atmospheric feedback......Page 106
4.4.2.1 Oceanic gyres and Rossby waves......Page 109
4.4.2.2 Antarctic circumpolar wave......Page 110
4.4.2.3 Sub-tropical overturning cell......Page 111
4.4.3 Idealized fluid models with intrinsic variability......Page 112
4.4.3.1 Oceanic thermohaline circulation......Page 114
4.4.3.2 Sea ice......Page 117
4.4.3.3 Oceanic wind gyres......Page 121
4.5 Discussion......Page 124
References......Page 125
5.1 Introduction......Page 131
5.2.1 Evolution of the greenhouse theory......Page 133
5.2.2 Development of quantum theory and spectroscopy......Page 134
5.2.3 Radiation modeling......Page 136
5.3 Cloud-radiative forcing......Page 139
5.3.1 Radiation budget of the twin Earth......Page 140
5.3.3 Regional cloud forcing: cloud systems with large forcing......Page 142
5.4 Atmospheric greenhouse effect: global and regional averages......Page 145
5.5 Understanding water-vapor feedback using radiation budget data: an example......Page 149
5.6.1 Needed improvements in observations......Page 157
5.6.2 Unresolved and emerging issues......Page 158
References......Page 160
6.1 Introduction......Page 164
6.2 Model......Page 166
6.4 Aerosol optical properties......Page 167
6.5 Radiative heating of stratosphere......Page 168
6.6 Stratospheric temperature response......Page 171
6.6.1 Vertical structure of zonal-mean change......Page 172
6.6.2 Tropical versus global mean change......Page 175
6.6.3 Characteristics of the individual member integrations......Page 177
6.7 Summary and discussion......Page 186
References......Page 188
7.1.1 The importance of accurate estimates of solar absorption......Page 191
7.1.2 Implications for modeling of the climate......Page 194
7.2.1 Description of CSM components......Page 198
7.2.2 Description of generic enhanced absorption......Page 201
7.2.3 Selection of values for GEA parameter Lambda......Page 203
7.3.1 Adjustment of atmospheric model for energy balance......Page 204
7.3.2 The climate simulation with GEA......Page 205
7.4 Response of the coupled climate model to GEA......Page 216
7.5 Conclusions......Page 224
Acknowledgments......Page 225
References......Page 226
8.1 Introduction......Page 229
8.2 The nature of cloud feedback......Page 230
8.3 An example of simulated cloud feedbacks......Page 236
8.4 Linear systems analysis of climate feedbacks......Page 238
8.5 Can we simulate cloud–climate feedbacks accurately?......Page 246
8.6 A global radiative–convective feedback......Page 248
8.7 The thermostat feedback......Page 251
8.8 Cloud feedback, water-vapor feedback, and the tropical general circulation......Page 253
8.9 A look ahead......Page 257
References......Page 258
9.1 Introduction......Page 263
9.2 Radiative considerations......Page 264
9.3 Tropical/sub-tropical moisture budgets......Page 265
9.4 Moisture trends......Page 267
9.5 General circulation models......Page 269
9.6 The GISS GCM upper troposphere and sub-tropical water-vapor budgets......Page 272
9.7 The GISS GCM response to specified SST changes......Page 276
9.8 The GISS GCM response in climate change experiments......Page 281
9.9 Discussion......Page 290
Acknowledgments......Page 292
References......Page 293
10.1 Introduction......Page 297
10.2 The global radiosonde network......Page 298
10.3 Satellite remote sensing......Page 303
10.3.1 Solar measurements......Page 304
10.3.2 Thermal-infrared measurements......Page 307
10.3.3 Microwave measurements......Page 311
10.3.4 Infrared and microwave retrieval strategies......Page 314
10.4.1 Emerging satellite systems......Page 316
10.4.3 Combined active and passive sounding......Page 318
10.4.4 Final remarks......Page 319
References......Page 320
11.1 Introduction......Page 324
11.2 Background......Page 325
11.3 Remote sensing of aerosol absorption......Page 328
11.4 Remote sensing of aerosol fluxes and radiative forcing of climate......Page 333
11.4.1 Remote sensing of aerosol fluxes and radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere......Page 334
11.4.2 Remote sensing of aerosol fluxes and radiative forcing at the surface......Page 336
11.5 Conclusions......Page 340
References......Page 341
12.1 Introduction......Page 344
12.2.1 Cloud forcing......Page 345
12.2.2 Sea-surface temperature......Page 347
12.3 Results......Page 351
12.4 Summary......Page 358
References......Page 359
13.1 Introduction......Page 361
13.2.1 Positive feedbacks in the climate system......Page 362
13.2.2 Negative feedbacks in the climate system......Page 364
13.3.1 Runaway greenhouse atmospheres......Page 366
13.4.1 Energy-balance climate modeling......Page 369
13.4.2 Evidence for a snowball Earth......Page 371
13.4.3 Possible triggers for global glaciation......Page 372
References......Page 376
Glossary......Page 379