Foreign Trade Reforms and Development Strategy

Book Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Contents......Page 5
Figures......Page 7
Tables......Page 8
Contributors......Page 10
Acknowledgements......Page 12
BACKGROUND TO THE DEBATE: THE STRENGTH OF THE LIBERAL PLEA......Page 13
A few indeterminate points......Page 14
Anti-export bias......Page 16
Tariffs, quotas, rents and DUPes......Page 17
Arguments in favour of export-orientation......Page 18
Tuning-down the tone......Page 19
Outline of a positive case for import-controls......Page 20
PRESENTATION OF CONTRIBUTIONS......Page 22
NOTES......Page 26
REFERENCES......Page 27
BACKGROUND......Page 30
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ‘STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT’ POLICIES......Page 31
EFFECTIVENESS......Page 37
INTER-COUNTRY VARIATIONS IN EXPERIENCE......Page 40
KEY......Page 41
SYNTHESIS AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT......Page 43
REFERENCES......Page 44
Concerns regarding trade policy reforms......Page 45
Overview of developing country trade regimes......Page 47
Policy changes......Page 48
Performance outcomes......Page 52
The supply response......Page 53
SEQUENCING AND TIMING OF REFORMS......Page 54
Trade policy reforms and macroeconomic stabilization......Page 55
Trade policy and domestic reforms......Page 57
Pace of reforms......Page 58
Export policy......Page 59
Import policy......Page 62
POLICIES TOWARDS TRADING PARTNERS......Page 63
CREDIBILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY......Page 64
REFERENCES......Page 65
INTRODUCTION AND RATIONALE......Page 69
THE SEQUENCING OF TRADE POLICY REFORM: A REVIEW OF THE STANDARD ARGUMENT......Page 70
THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY......Page 71
THE SEQUENCING OF TRADE POLICY REFORM WHEN ORGANIZATIONAL VARIABLES ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT......Page 73
(ii) Trade policy reform on neo-liberal lines......Page 74
THE EAST ASIAN EXPERIENCE: SCOPE FOR REPLICATION IN AFRICA?......Page 75
REFERENCES......Page 76
INTRODUCTION......Page 78
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND TRADE POLICY......Page 82
Static efficiency gains and trade policy......Page 83
Dynamic efficiency and trade policy......Page 84
DOMESTIC COMPETITION AND PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE......Page 86
NOTES......Page 88
REFERENCES......Page 89
INTRODUCTION......Page 92
STABILIZATION AND GROWTH IN THE ‘WASHINGTON CONSENSUS’ APPROACH......Page 93
The neoclassical interpretation of the import-substitution strategy of industrialization and the role of the state5......Page 94
The Washington Consensus’s policy recommendation......Page 96
Some unresolved issues of the WC approach......Page 98
The external gap......Page 100
The fiscal gap......Page 105
STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND STABILIZATION WITH GROWTH......Page 116
Stabilization......Page 117
Trade reform, debt and balance of payments......Page 119
APPENDIX 5.1 ADDITIONAL STATISTICAL INFORMATION......Page 122
NOTES......Page 127
REFERENCES......Page 128
INTRODUCTION......Page 131
THE EXTENT OF INCOHERENCE OF NORTH-SOUTH TRADE POLICIES AND THE PROSPECTS FOR EXPORTS OF MANUFACTURES AND FOR PROTECTION IN THE 1990s......Page 132
CONCLUSIONS......Page 144
APPENDIX 6.1 THE DETERMINANTS OF PROTECTION MODEL (DOP)......Page 147
NOTES......Page 158
REFERENCES......Page 159
Initial conceptions of African integration......Page 160
The causes of failure of integration based on infant industry arguments......Page 161
The optimism of expectations concerning the efficiency of educative protectionism......Page 162
The multiplicity of objectives assigned to protection measures......Page 163
The new protection projects......Page 164
Difficulties met by projects of integration through protection of existing activities......Page 165
Sociological and political resistance......Page 166
Theoretical criticisms......Page 167
Dismantling existing protections......Page 168
Persistence of previous protection and integration measures......Page 169
The lack of convergence of national policies......Page 170
CONCLUSION......Page 171
REFERENCES......Page 173
The situation in the early 1980s......Page 174
The New Industrial Policy (NIP) and import-liberalization measures......Page 178
The time-schedule of import liberalization......Page 180
GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF THE EXPERIENCE......Page 181
The effects on industry10......Page 182
CONCLUSION......Page 183
REFERENCES......Page 184
INTRODUCTION......Page 186
THE GROWTH AND STRUCTURE OF IMPORTS......Page 187
EVOLUTION OF THE IMPORT CONTROL REGIME......Page 188
MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF IMPORT CONTROLS......Page 189
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS......Page 191
REFERENCES......Page 193
SOME UNTYPICAL FEATURES OF KENYA......Page 194
OBJECTIVES AND PROBLEMS OF IMPORT LIBERALIZATION......Page 195
The behaviour of total imports......Page 196
Analysis of the structure of imports......Page 197
INPUT SUBSTITUTION AND THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR......Page 198
Imported input availability and input-substitution......Page 199
LABOUR-PRODUCTIVITY, IMPORTED INPUT AVAILABILITY AND MANUFACTURED EXPORTS......Page 200
DEVALUATION FATIGUE?......Page 202
CONCLUSION......Page 203
(a) Total imports......Page 204
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY......Page 205
EXPORT ORIENTATION OF THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR......Page 206
NOTES FOR APPENDIX 10.1......Page 207
REFERENCES......Page 208
 THE CONCEPTS OF IMPORT-SUBSTITUTING AND OF EXPORT-LED INDUSTRIALIZATIONS......Page 211
IMPORT-SUBSTITUTION INDUSTRIALIZATION IN TURKEY: THE PLANNING STAGE 1963–79......Page 212
Export structure and foreign trade deficit......Page 213
EXPORT-INDUCED INDUSTRIALIZATION IN TURKEY 1980–7......Page 215
The sluggishness of structural change in Turkish industry since 1980......Page 216
CONCLUSION......Page 219
Assessment of the exchange rate’s influence on imports......Page 221
REFERENCES......Page 222
THE CONTRACTIONARY AND INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF DEVALUATIONS......Page 224
NOMINAL AND REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES......Page 225
 THE ROLE OF SUBSIDIES......Page 226
THE RATIONALITY OF THE SUBSIDIZED EXPORTS POLICY......Page 228
CONCLUSION......Page 229
REFERENCES......Page 230
Index......Page 231