Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters

Front-Matte_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-D
	Front Matter
Copyright_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-Dis
	Copyright
Contributor_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-D
	Contributors
Preface_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-Disas
	Preface
Chapter-1---Some-relevant-issues-in-volcan_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for
	Some relevant issues in volcanic hazard forecasts and management of volcanic crisis
		Introduction
		Volcanoes as complex dynamic systems
		Volcanic alert levels at high-risk volcanoes
		Forecasting eruption size at reawakening volcanoes
		Forecasting the impacted areas
		Best practices
		Global volcanic hazards
		References
Chapter-2---A-review-of-seismic-methods-_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-V
	A review of seismic methods for monitoring and understanding active volcanoes
		Introduction
		Seismic sources and related signals
			High-frequency events
			Long-period events
			Volcanic tremor
			Very-long period events
			Explosions and other volcanic signals
		Seismic monitoring
			Instrumentation for recording of seismicity
				Distributed acoustic sensing
				Rotational sensors
			Signal detection
			Classification
			Location
				Coherence-based methods
				Back-propagation methods
				Amplitude-based methods
				Time-reverse location methods
				Array methods
		Methods for source studies
			Remarks on moment-tensor inversion of volcanic LP and VLP sources
		Subsurface investigation
			Seismic tomography from earthquakes and active sources
			Shallow velocity structures from surface wave dispersion
			Ambient noise tomography
			Temporal changes of medium properties
		Conclusions and future opportunities
		Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-3---Volcano-geodesy--A-critical-tool-fo_2021_Forecasting-and-Plannin
	Volcano geodesy: A critical tool for assessing the state of volcanoes and their potential for hazardous erupti ...
		The ups and downs of volcanoes
		Measuring deformation and gravity change
			``Classic´´ volcano geodesy
			``Modern´´ volcano geodesy
		Forecasting volcanic activity with geodesy
			Eruption onset
			Eruption evolution
			Forecasting challenges
		Limitations of geodetic data
			Data collection
			Data interpretation
		Beyond the subsurface: Novel uses of geodetic data
			Surface change
			Detection and characterization of volcanic plumes
			Properties of magma and magmatic systems
		Case studies
			Agung, Indonesia: Geodetic insights into pre- and co-eruptive volcanic activity and hazards
			Saba and St. Eustatius, Dutch Antilles: Preemptive geodetic response at historically dormant volcanic islands
		The future of geodesy applied to volcanic hazards
		Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-4---Geochemical-monitoring-of-vol_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-
	Geochemical monitoring of volcanoes and the mitigation of volcanic gas hazards
		Introduction
			Magmatic degassing and the tenet of geochemical monitoring
		Measurements of fumarolic/vent emissions, volcanic plumes, soil gases, and springs
			High-temperature gases from fumaroles and active vents
			Low temperature, hydrothermal emissions
			Stable isotopes and noble gases
			Gas flux measured in volcanic plumes and clouds
			Soil gas monitoring
		Volcanic gas hazard and risk
		Limits to knowledge and future developments
		References
Chapter-5---A-review-of-the-physical-and-mecha_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning
	A review of the physical and mechanical properties of volcanic rocks and magmas in the brittle and ductile regimes
		Introduction
		Physical properties of volcanic materials
			The porosity of volcanic rocks and magmas
			Permeable pathways in volcanic rocks and magmas
			Ultrasonic velocity in volcanic materials
		Thermo-mechanical properties of volcanic rocks
			The mechanical properties of volcanic rocks under unconfined conditions
			The mechanical properties of volcanic rocks under confined conditions
			Thermal expansivity, thermal stressing, and thermal microcracking
			Thermal-sensitivity of mineralogical assemblages: the importance of secondary mineralization and devolatilization re ...
			Mechanical properties of volcanic rocks at elevated temperature
		The rheology of magmas
			Silicate melt rheology: Viscosity and the glass transition
			Multiphase magma viscosity
			Crystal plasticity in magmas
			The strength of multiphase magmas
			Magmatic fragmentation
			Criteria for multiphase magma failure
		Material rupture architecture and seismogenicity
		Tribological and frictional properties of volcanic materials
		Concluding remarks
		Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-6---Numerical-modeling-o_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-
	Numerical modeling of magma ascent dynamics
		Introduction
		Conduit models
		Case studies
			Mechanical disequilibrium/outgassing
			Conduit geometry
			Temperature
			Phreatomagmatic interaction
		Conclusions
		Appendix A
		Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-7---Understanding-volcanic-systems-and_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning
	Understanding volcanic systems and their dynamics combining field and physical volcanology with petrology studies
		Introduction
		Reconstructing the evolution of a volcanic system
			Geological mapping and stratigraphic studies
			Geochronological studies
			Physical characterization of eruptions
			Petrology and geochemistry of erupted products
		Studying single-eruption sequences
			Sampling strategies for pyroclastic deposits
			Componentry of pyroclastic deposits
			Internal variability in the products of an effusive eruption
		Petrological constraints to magma genesis and evolution
			The nature and composition of the magma source
			Defining physical and chemical parameters of magmatic processes
			Dynamics of magmatic processes
			Timescales for magma crystallization and degassing
		Experimental constraints on volcano evolution and eruption dynamics
			P-T conditions of magma evolution: Phase equilibrium studies
			Constraints to magma degassing: Volatile solubilities
			Experimental constraints to magma mixing/interaction
			Constraints to the rates of magma ascent: Decompression experiments
			Measuring physical properties of rocks and magmas
		Discussion and conclusions
		References
Chapter-8---Assessment-of-risk-assoc_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volca
	Assessment of risk associated with tephra-related hazards
		Introduction
		Tephra dispersal, fallout and aeolian ash remobilization
		Impacts associated with tephra fallout, dispersal, and aeolian ash remobilization
		Hazard assessment
		Exposure and vulnerability assessment
			Physical vulnerability
			Socio-economic vulnerability
			Systemic vulnerability
		Risk assessment
			Risk assessment at local scale based on in-situ vulnerability analysis
			Exposure-based risk assessment at regional scale
			Exposure-based risk assessment at continental scale for tephra dispersal
		Discussion and conclusions
			Recent developments in hazard and vulnerability assessment of tephra-related phenomena
			Current challenges of risk assessment
			Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-9---The-dynamics-of-explosive-mafic_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-fo
	The dynamics of explosive mafic eruptions: New insights from multiparametric observations
		Introduction
		Volcano monitoring techniques: Acquisition rates, modes, and strategies
			FAMoUS: A Fast, Multiparametric Setup for studying explosive volcanic activity
		Key eruptive processes: Insights from multiparametric measurements
			The ejection of pyroclasts at the vent: Ejection velocity and ejection pulses
			Features and dynamics of eruptive supersonic jets from mafic explosive eruptions
			The growth of eruption plumes from pulsatory, mafic explosive activity
			Volcanic ballistics projectiles
			Vent dynamics and their influence on eruption style
			Towards a more quantitative definition of eruptive styles
		Final considerations
			Technological advancements
			Volcanological perspectives
			Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-10---Recent-basaltic-eruptions-in-I_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-fo
	Recent basaltic eruptions in Iceland and the dynamics of co-eruptive subsurface magma flow
		Introduction
		Volcanism in Iceland
		A mathematical model for magma flow in basaltic eruptions
		Eyjafjallajökull flank (Fimmvöruháls) eruption 2010
		Grímsvötn 2011 eruption
		Bárarbunga 2014-2015
		Discussion
		Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-11---Volcanic-lake-dynam_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-
	Volcanic lake dynamics and related hazards
		Introduction
			The early history of volcanic lake research
			Classification of volcanic lakes
		Mechanisms leading to hazardous events
			From sealing to phreatic eruptions
			Gas hazards and limnic gas burst revisited
				Direct gas emissions
				Gas beracun at hyperacidic lakes: The Kawah Ijen case
				Degassing of geothermally heated caldera lakes and medium activity lakes
				Nyos-type vs anti-Nyos-type vs bioactivity lakes
			The sudden release of water: Floods and lahars
		Impacts and risk perception
			In modern times
			Sociocultural views and aspects
		Monitoring and mitigation strategies
		Conclusive remarks
		References
Chapter-12---Remote-sensing-o_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Haz
	Remote sensing of volcanic impacts
		Introduction
		Remote sensing for volcanic impact assessment
			Preevent impact assessments
			Postevent impact assessments
		Case study: The 2014 eruption of Kelud
		Case study: The 2010 eruption of Merapi
			Change detection
			Time series approach to impact and recovery
		Concluding remarks
		Supplementary material
		Acknowledgments
		References
Chapter-13---A-checklist-for-crisis-o_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volc
	A checklist for crisis operations within volcano observatories
		Introduction
			Definitions-``Volcano observatory,´´ ``volcanic crisis,´´ and ``success´´
		Differences in capabilities, responsibilities, and intensities of crisis operations among observatories
			Observatories that are responsible for many volcanoes and multiple eruptions per year
			Observatories with few volcanoes and/or few eruptions per year
		The crisis timeline
			Continuous progression to eruption
			Little or no time to respond
			Prolonged high-levels of unrest
			Augmenting monitoring networks during crises
			When is an eruption imminent? When is it finished? And who makes the call?
			Postcrisis
		Observatory hazard communications during crises
			Communicating probabilities and uncertainties
			Hazard warnings and volcanic alert levels (VALs)
			Incident management systems (IMS)
			The role of observatory Public Information Officers (PIOs) and daily talking points
		Crisis-driven research and crisis-collaboration plans
			Crisis collaboration plans
			Open access to monitoring data
		Checklists for many workplaces, including volcano observatories
			A brief history of checklists outside volcanology
			Checklists for volcano observatory planning and crisis operations: General considerations
			Suggested checklist: Short version
			Suggested checklist: Details
				Precrisis: Inward-facing
				Precrisis: Outward-facing
				Syn-crisis: Inward-facing
				Syn-crisis: Outward-facing
				Postcrisis: Inward-looking
				Postcrisis: Outward-looking
				Posteruption: Lingering effects, both inward- and outward-looking
		Legal implications
		Closing remarks
		References
Chapter-14---Reducing-the-volcanic-risk-i_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-
	Reducing the volcanic risk in the frame of the hazard/risk separation principle
		Introduction
		Quantifying uncertain scientific information: Hazard analysis
		Moving from hazard to risk
		Decision-making under uncertainty
		The hazard/risk separation principle
		The Campi Flegrei VUELCO simulation exercise
		Final remarks
		References
Chapter-15---Volcanic-hazards-infor_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcan
	Volcanic hazards information and assessment systems
		Introduction
		G-EVER Asia-Pacific region earthquake and volcanic hazards mapping project
			Eastern Asia Earthquake and Volcanic Hazards Information Map
			Asia-Pacific Region Geological Hazards Information System
		Volcanic hazards assessment support system
			Outline of the volcanic hazards assessment support system
			Energy cone simulation
			Titan2D simulation
			Tephra2 simulation
			Advantage of VHASS
		Conclusions
		References
		Further reading
Chapter-16---Raising-awareness-of-populat_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-
	Raising awareness of populations living under volcanic risk--The Colombian case
		Introduction
		Beginnings of volcanology in Colombia, The Case Of The Nevado del Ruíz volcano (VNR)
		Research and monitoring of volcanic activity in Colombia
			Volcanic hazard assessment
			Volcano monitoring
		``ASCG´´ strategies in Colombian volcanoes
		Case studies
			Nevado del Ruiz volcano, 1989-2019
			Nevado del Huila volcano, 2007-2009-2019
			Galeras volcano, 2005-2019
			Chiles--Cerro Negro volcanoes, 2013-2019
		Conclusions
		References
Chapter-17---Volcano-hazards-_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Haz
	Volcano hazards and risks in Chile
		Introduction
		Active volcanoes in Chile
		Volcano hazards
		Exposure, vulnerability, and risk
		Concluding remarks
		References
Chapter-18---Volcano-emergency-pla_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcani
	Volcano emergency planning at Sakurajima volcano
		Volcano emergency planning in Japan
		Sakurajima volcano and its eruptive history
			1914 eruption
			1946 eruption
			Vulcanian eruption at Minami-dake crater in 1955-2005
			Vulcanian eruption at Showa crater in 2006-17
		Monitoring of the volcano and the volcanic alert level
			Monitoring of volcanic activity
			Volcanic alert level
		Scenarios of future activity against which countermeasures are necessary
		Volcano disaster measures
		Enhancement of preparedness
		Disaster emergency measures
			Strategy of forecasting volcanic eruption
			Procedure for setting up the disaster management system
			Plan for shared information between scientific bodies and local authorities
			Announcement of disaster information to the public
			Evacuation plan
			Variety of disaster emergency measures
		Recovery
		Complex disaster measures
			Complex disaster characteristics
			Factors inhibiting evacuation
		Long-term evacuation
			Housing for long-term evacuation
			Collection of information pertaining to long-term evacuation
			Monitoring of existing houses for residents in long-term evacuation
		Massive tephra falls
		Collaboration among organizations
		Necessity of further development of emergency measures
		References
		Further reading
Index_2021_Forecasting-and-Planning-for-Volcanic-Hazards--Risks--and-Disaste
	Index