Fiscal Resilience to Natural Disasters

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Acronyms and abbreviations
Executive Summary
	Key findings
	Policy recommendations
Introduction
	Notes
Part I: Synthesis
	Chapter 1.  Understanding the economic and fiscal impacts of disasters
		The economic impacts of disasters: Disaster losses and damages on the rise
			Inverse relation of disaster impacts to income
		The fiscal impacts of disasters: Understanding the key determinants
			The determinants of fiscal impacts of disasters
			Disaster impacts on government spending: Explicit contingent liabilities
			Disaster impacts on government spending: Implicit contingent liabilities
			Disaster impacts on government revenues
			Indirect fiscal impacts of disasters
		Past fiscal impacts of disasters
		Fiscal impacts of major historical disasters
			The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
			The 2010–11 Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
			The 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire in Canada
		Notes
		References
	Chapter 2.  Boosting financial resilience against disasters:  Towards better management of disaster-related contingent liabilities
		Introduction
		Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Distinguishing explicit from implicit contingent liabilities
			Explicit government commitments for disaster assistance: A range of policies and practices
			Commitments for recovering and replacing central versus subnational public infrastructure assets
			Limited government assistance for state-owned enterprises or PPPs
			Varying government commitment to support household recovery
			The role of post-disaster financial support to businesses in limiting a disaster’s economic impact
			Governments’ limited effort to encourage disaster prevention by businesses
			Tailored support to the agricultural sector
			A rising trend in implicit government commitments due to extreme events
			Tendency of implicit contingent liabilities to be greater where explicit commitments ex ante are limited
		Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Direct estimation of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimation of disaster-related contingent liabilities through probabilistic modelling
			Governments’ compilation of information to estimate their liabilities
		Estimation of fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and their integration in overall fiscal forecasting and fiscal risk assessments
			Practices showing strong recognition of major disasters in overall fiscal management
			Benefits of increasing visibility in the fiscal policy-making process
		Disclosing government’s disaster-related contingent liabilities
		Notes
		References
	Chapter 3.  Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks: Policy lessons
		Cost-sharing mechanisms between central and subnational governments
		Cost-sharing mechanisms between government and private actors
		Managing remaining fiscal risk through multi-pronged financial protection strategies
		References
Part II: Case Studies
	Australia
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impacts of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		Notes
		References
	Canada
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impact of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
				Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
				Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
				For assistance distributed to agricultural producers via the AgriRecovery framework, provincial and territorial governments can launch a request to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the federal agency charged with administration of this programme. Th...
		Notes
		References
	Colombia
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impacts of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
				Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
				Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
				Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		References
	Costa Rica
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impacts of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		References
	France
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impact of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance pay-outs
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimation of fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and their integration in overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		Notes
		References
	Japan
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impact of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		Notes
		References
	Mexico
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impacts of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Disclosure of information on disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		Notes
		References
	New Zealand
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Past fiscal impacts of disasters
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		Notes
		References
	Peru
		Prevalence of natural hazards
		Managing disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Identification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
				Explicit contingent liabilities
				Implicit contingent liabilities
				Estimation of insurance payouts
			Quantification of disaster-related contingent liabilities
			Estimating the fiscal impacts of disaster-related contingent liabilities and integrating them into overall fiscal forecasting
			Implementation arrangements for providing post-disaster financial assistance
			Mitigating disaster-related contingent liabilities and financing residual risks
		References