Extreme events: observations, modeling, and economics

Content: Contributors vii     Preface xi     Acknowledgments xiii     1 Introduction Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia  ]Fucugauchi 1     Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7     2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis Gwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 9     3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events Catherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 23     4 Skill of Data  ]based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies Stefan Siegert, Jochen Brocker, and Holger Kantz 35     5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points Timothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 51     6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach Michael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63     Part II: Extreme Events in Earth   s Space Environment 79     7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 81     8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary Jaime Urrutia  ]Fucugauchi and Ligia Perez  ]Cruz 93     Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113     9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States Andrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 115     10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma Edgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez  ]Ortiz, Ismael Marino  ]Tapia, and Angelica Felix 125     11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Kazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 137     12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation Michael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153     Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163     13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach Maria  ]Teresa Ramirez  ]Herrera, Nestor Corona, and Gerardo Suarez 165     14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 177     15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment Servando De la Cruz  ]Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza  ]Rosas 195     Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205     16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory Richard W Katz 207     17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach Mario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 219     18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts Suzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 303     19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy Andreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stephane Hallegatte 343     Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361     20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts Lubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 363     21 High  ]Tech Risks: The 2011 Tohoku Extreme Events Heriberta Castanos and Cinna Lomnitz 381     22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach
 Prediction Algorithms
 Applications to Disaster Preparedness Vladimir Keilis  ]Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391     Index 407