Extreme Events and Natural Hazards : The Complexity Perspective

PREFACE......Page 7
Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences: An Overview......Page 8
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 9
2. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS, COMPLEXITY,AND EXTREME EVENTS......Page 10
3. EARTH SCIENCES: EARTHQUAKESAND LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS......Page 12
4. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN SCIENCES......Page 13
5. HYDROLOGIC SCIENCE:FLOODS AND DROUGHTS......Page 15
6. SPACE WEATHER: SOLAR ACTIVITY,MAGNETOSPHERE, IONOSPHERE,AND SOCIETAL IMPACTS......Page 16
7. OVERARCHING ISSUES: INTERDISCIPLINARYAPPROACH, DATA, AND LARGE-SCALESIMULATIONS......Page 18
8. CONCLUSION......Page 19
REFERENCES......Page 20
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 24
2. GR SCALING VERSUS CHARACTERISTIC EARTHQUAKES CES......Page 25
4. CHARACTERISTIC EARTHQUAKES AT PARKFIELD......Page 26
5. SIMULATIONS......Page 30
REFERENCES......Page 31
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 34
2. THE METHOD AND THE DATA......Page 35
3. CHANGE IN THE RATE OF EARTHQUAKES IN THE GENERALIZED VICINITYOF A STRONG EARTHQUAKE......Page 36
THE b VALUE CHANGE IN THE GENERALIZED VICINITY OF A STRONG EARTHQUAKE......Page 38
5. CHANGE IN EARTHQUAKE SOURCE CHARACTERISTICS......Page 40
6. CONNECTION WITH THE CRITICAL PROCESSES AND WITH THE CRITICAL SLOWING-DOWN EFFECT......Page 43
REFERENCES......Page 44
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 47
2. MODEL......Page 48
3.1. Effective Dissipation......Page 49
3.3. Large Events and Site Connectedness......Page 53
3.4. Length Scales......Page 54
4.1. Numerical Distributions of Site Dissipation Parameters......Page 55
4.2. Gutenberg-Richter Scaling......Page 56
REFERENCES......Page 57
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 61
2. MAPPING SEISMIC CHARACTERISTICS: POWER LAW RELATIONS......Page 64
2.2. Frequency-Magnitude Relation b Value......Page 65
3.1. Fractal Dimension......Page 66
REFERENCES......Page 67
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 69
2. SEISMICITY OF THE GUJARAT REGION......Page 70
4. TRIGGERED EARTHQUAKES IN SAURASHTRA......Page 71
5. GPS AND INTERFEROMETRIC SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR MEASUREMENTS......Page 72
6. POSTSEISMIC DEFORMATION......Page 75
7. DISCUSSIONS......Page 77
8. CONCLUSIONS......Page 78
REFERENCES......Page 79
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 80
2.1. Model Description......Page 83
2.2. Interaction of Blocks Along Fault Planes and With the Underlying Medium......Page 84
3.2. Long-Range Interaction Between Synthetic Earthquakes......Page 86
3.3. Transformation of the Frequency-Magnitude Relationship Prior to the Extreme Event......Page 87
4. INTERMEDIATE-DEPTH SEISMICITY IN VRANCEA......Page 88
5. EARTHQUAKES IN THE SUNDA ISLAND ARC REGION......Page 92
6. EARTHQUAKES IN THE TIBET-HIMALAYAN REGION......Page 94
7. PERSPECTIVES IN EARTHQUAKE SIMULATIONS AND STUDIES OF EXTREME SEISMICITY......Page 97
REFERENCES......Page 98
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 104
2. DATA AND METHODS DEVELOPED......Page 105
2.2. Automated Detection of Polar Lows in Long-Term RegCM Data......Page 106
3. RESULTS......Page 108
3.1. Changes of North Atlantic Polar Low Frequency Over the Past Six Decades......Page 109
3.2. Comparison With Other Studies and Observations......Page 110
3.3. Changes of North Atlantic Polar Low Frequency in a Presumed Warmed Atmosphere......Page 112
4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 113
REFERENCES......Page 114
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 116
2. VARIABILITY OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY......Page 117
3. PDI DISTRIBUTION AND POWER LAW FITS......Page 120
4. GAMMA DISTRIBUTION OF PDI......Page 123
5. SENSITIVITY OF THE TAIL OF THE PDIDISTRIBUTION TO SST......Page 124
6. INFLUENCE OF EL NIÑO, THE NAO, THE AMO, AND THE NUMBER OF STORMS ON THE PDI......Page 126
7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 127
APPENDIX A: RELATION BETWEEN PDI AND DISSIPATED ENERGY......Page 128
REFERENCES......Page 129
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 131
2.1. Calculating Shoreline Change......Page 133
2.2. Insights From Fair-Weather Shoreline Survey Comparisons......Page 134
3.2. Shoreline Behavior at Large Scales......Page 135
3.3. Controls on Long-Term Shoreline Evolution......Page 139
REFERENCES......Page 140
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 143
3. LINEAR CORRELATIONS......Page 146
4. NONLINEAR CORRELATIONS AND MULTIFRACTALITY......Page 148
5. PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION......Page 149
6. HAZARD FUNCTION......Page 150
7. PREDICTION ALGORITHM AND EFFICIENCY......Page 152
REFERENCES......Page 154
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 157
2.1. Data......Page 158
3. LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS......Page 159
4. RAINFALL......Page 162
5. SURFACE TEMPERATURE......Page 167
6. SUMMARY......Page 170
REFERENCES......Page 172
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 173
2. RECONSTRUCTED TREE RING TEMPERATURE RECORD......Page 174
4. SPECTRAL ANALYSES OF EOFPRINCIPAL COMPONENTS......Page 175
5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION......Page 177
REFERENCES......Page 179
2. LONG-TERM CORRELATIONS......Page 181
3. QUANTITIES OF INTEREST......Page 184
4. NUMERICAL ESTIMATION OF THE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY......Page 187
5. APPLICATION TO CLIMATE DATA......Page 189
6. CONCLUSION......Page 191
REFERENCES......Page 192
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 195
2. SEARCHING FOR SUBSYSTEMS......Page 196
3. INTERACTION BETWEEN SUBSYSTEMS......Page 204
4. CONCLUSIONS......Page 209
REFERENCES......Page 210
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 213
2. THE HURST PHENOMENON: REVIEW OF THEORETICAL AND ESTIMATION CONCEPTS......Page 215
3. STOCHASTIC CLIMATE MODELING AND LONG-TERM MEMORY......Page 219
4. REVIEW OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS THEORY......Page 222
5. LONG-TERM STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE IN A SIMPLE CLIMATE MODEL WITHOUT NOISE......Page 224
6. LONG-TERM STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE IN A SIMPLE HYDROCLIMATIC DAISYWORLD MODEL WITHOUT NOISE......Page 227
7. LONG-TERM STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE IN A SIMPLE CLIMATE MODEL WITH NOISE......Page 229
8. CONCLUDING REMARKS......Page 230
REFERENCES......Page 231
1.1. What Is the Climate?......Page 235
1.2. Using the Type of Scaling Variability to Determine the Dynamical Regime......Page 236
2.1. Discussion......Page 237
2.3. Temporal Spectral Scaling in the Low-Frequency Weather-Climate Regime......Page 238
2.4. The Weather Regime, Space-Time Scaling, and Some Turbulence Theory......Page 239
2.6. The Transition Time Scale From Weather to Low-Frequency Weather Using “First Principles?......Page 241
2.7. Ocean “Weather? and “Low-Frequency Ocean Weather?......Page 242
3.1. What Is Climate Change?......Page 243
3.3. Fluctuations and Structure Functions......Page 244
3.4. Application of Haar Fluctuations to Global Temperature Series......Page 245
4.1. Intermediate-Scale Multiproxy Series......Page 247
4.2. The Holocene Exception: Climate Variability in Time and in Space......Page 248
4.3. Multiproxy Temperature Data, Centennial-Scale Variability, and the Twentieth Century Exception......Page 249
4.4. Twentieth Century Exceptionalism......Page 251
5.2. A Composite Picture of Atmospheric Variability From 6 Hours to 105 Years......Page 252
6. CONCLUSIONS......Page 254
REFERENCES......Page 255
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 259
2. AN EXTREME SPACE WEATHER EVENT AND ITS SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS......Page 260
3. REQUIREMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF FORECASTING EXTREME EVENTS......Page 261
4. NONLINEARITY IN THE SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL SYSTEM......Page 264
5. A VISION FOR SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION......Page 267
REFERENCES......Page 269
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 271
3. MODERN OUTLOOK......Page 272
3.1. Geomagnetic Storms......Page 273
3.2. Case Study of Supermagnetic Storm of 1?2 September 1859......Page 276
3.3. What Is the Probability of Occurrence of Supermagnetic Storms Similar to or Higher Than 1?2 September 1859?......Page 278
GLOSSARY......Page 279
REFERENCES......Page 280
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 283
2. INTERMEDIATE-SCALE IRREGULARITY SPECTRUM......Page 284
3. IONOSPHERIC SCINTILLATION OBSERVATIONS......Page 286
4. ROLE OF E REGION CONDUCTIVITY AND F LAYER HEIGHT......Page 288
5. SUMMARY......Page 293
REFERENCES......Page 294
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 297
3. DATA PREPARATION......Page 298
3.1. Exploring Different Data Binning Techniques......Page 299
3.3. Uritsky Gridding......Page 300
REFERENCES......Page 302
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 303
2.1. Two Tentative “Stylized Facts? of Space PlasmaFluctuations......Page 306
2.3. LFSM: A Self-Similar, Stable, Model......Page 307
4. GENERAL CONSEQUENCES OF ANY SELF-SIMILAR MODEL......Page 308
4.1. Conjecture 1......Page 309
4.2. Conjecture 2......Page 310
5.2. Specific Values of FPT and Survival Exponents Depend on the Underlying Process......Page 311
5.3. Folding in Information About the FPT With the Scaling of Burst Size Versus Duration to Give a Burst Size Distribution......Page 312
6.2. Sign......Page 313
7. CONCLUSIONS......Page 314
REFERENCES......Page 315
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 319
3. CLASSICAL RECORD STATISTICS......Page 321
4. HEAVY-TAILED PROCESSES WITH LONG-RANGE MEMORY......Page 322
4.2. Numerical Simulation of Self-Similar SαS Processes......Page 323
5.1. Extreme Value Statistics......Page 324
5.2. Conditional Extrema and Hazard Assessment......Page 328
5.3. Record Statistics......Page 331
6. APPLICATION: SOLAR POWER INPUT INTO THE EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE......Page 332
6.1. Conditional Extrema and Hazard Assessment......Page 333
6.2. Record Statistics......Page 334
REFERENCES......Page 335
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 339
2. LONG MEMORY......Page 340
3.1. Stretched Exponential Distribution......Page 341
3.2. Stretched Exponential to Weibull......Page 342
4. EARTHQUAKES AND RETURN INTERVALS......Page 344
REFERENCES......Page 346
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 349
2. USE OF TOP-DOWN DOWNSCALING TO DETERMINE RISKS FROM EXTREME EVENTS......Page 351
3. DETECTION TIME OF EXTREME EVENTS......Page 352
4.2. Two Approaches to Assessing Vulnerability Approach......Page 354
5. EXAMPLES OF VULNERABILITY THRESHOLDS FOR KEY RESOURCES......Page 355
5.2. Food......Page 357
5.5. Ecosystem Function......Page 358
REFERENCES......Page 359