Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of global warming

Cover\r......Page 1
 Evidence-Based Climate Science: Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as......Page 2
 Copyright......Page 3
Preface......Page 4
1 Introduction......Page 91
1 Introduction......Page 220
2 Is Global Warming Real?......Page 7
3.1 Ice Sheets......Page 10
3.1.1 Greenland Ice Sheet......Page 11
3.1.2 Antarctic Ice Sheet......Page 12
3.1.3 Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice......Page 14
4 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide......Page 18
4.1.2 Global Cooling Occurred from 1945 to 1977 While CO2 Emissions Soared......Page 21
5 Lessons from Past Global Climate Changes......Page 22
5.1 Magnitude and Rate of Abrupt Climate Changes......Page 24
5.1.1 Holocene Climate Changes (10,000 Years Ago to Present)......Page 25
5.1.1.1 Early Holocene Climate Changes......Page 26
5.1.1.5 Climate Changes Over the Past 500 Years......Page 28
5.1.1.6 The Medieval Warm Period (900 A.D. to 1300 A.D.)......Page 29
The Hockey Stick Trick......Page 30
5.1.1.7 The Little Ice Age (1300 A.D. to the 20th Century)......Page 32
5.2 Significance of Previous Global Climate Changes......Page 38
6 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)......Page 39
6.1 The Cool Phase of the PDO is Now Entrenched and ‘Global Warming’ (1977–1998) is Over......Page 40
7 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)......Page 42
8 Solar Variability and Climate Change......Page 43
8.1 Global Temperature Change, Sunspots, Solar Irradiance, 10Be and 14C Production......Page 47
9.1 IPCC Predictions......Page 48
9.2 Predictions Based on Past Climate Patterns......Page 49
 References......Page 51
1 Introduction......Page 55
2 Late Pleistocene Climate Oscillations Recorded by Glaciers......Page 56
2.1.2 Glacial Geomorphology......Page 58
2.1.3 Methods......Page 60
2.1.4.1 Elk Meadow Morainal Group......Page 61
2.1.4.2 Salmon River Morainal Group......Page 62
2.1.5.1 Redfish Lake Morainal Group......Page 63
2.1.8 Correlations......Page 65
2.2.1 Cordilleran Ice Sheet......Page 68
2.2.3 Wallowa Lake, Cascade Range, Oregon......Page 69
2.2.7 Northern Switzerland......Page 71
2.2.9 Australia......Page 73
2.3.2 Cordilleran Ice Sheet......Page 74
2.3.5 Younger Dryas in the Western U.S.......Page 75
2.3.5.1 Wind River Range, Wyoming......Page 76
2.3.5.4 Mt. Rainier, Washington......Page 77
2.3.5.5 Icicle Creek, Cascade Range, Washington......Page 78
2.3.5.6 San Bernadino Mts., California......Page 79
2.3.6 Swiss Alps......Page 80
2.3.8 Southern Alps, New Zealand......Page 81
 Acknowledgments......Page 85
 References......Page 86
2 The Global Data Centers......Page 92
3 The Golden Age of Surface Observation......Page 96
4 Vanishing Stations......Page 98
5 See For Yourself – The Data is a Mess......Page 101
6.2 New Zealand and Australia......Page 103
6.3 Turkey......Page 104
8 Along Comes ‘Modernization’......Page 106
10.1 Urban Heat Island......Page 110
11 U.S. Climate Data......Page 111
12 U.S. State Heat Records Suggest Recent Decades are not the Warmest......Page 113
13 Major Changes to USHCN in 2007......Page 114
14 Hadley and NOAA......Page 119
15 Final Adjustments – Homogenization......Page 125
16 Problems with Sea Surface Temperature Measurements......Page 131
17 Long-Term Trends......Page 132
18 Summary......Page 137
 Acknowledgments......Page 138
 References......Page 139
4 2010—The Hottest Year on Record?......Page 143
1 Comparisons vs. 1998......Page 146
2 The Data......Page 309
3 What is GISS Doing Wrong?......Page 148
4 Was 2010 a Record Hot Year?......Page 150
5 What Caused the Positive Anomalies in Early 2010?......Page 153
6 Some History About Dr. James Hansen......Page 155
7 Conclusion......Page 156
1 Introduction......Page 158
2 The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)......Page 159
2.1 Nino 3.4 Anomalies......Page 160
3 The ACRIM-GAP: 15/07/1989–03/10/1991......Page 161
4 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)......Page 162
5 Frequency and Strength of ENSO and the PDO......Page 163
7 ENSO vs. Temperatures......Page 167
8 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)......Page 168
9 North Atlantic Oscillation, The Arctic Oscillation, and The AMO......Page 169
10 Synchronized Dance of the Teleconnections......Page 171
11 Short-term Warm/Cool Cycles from the Greenland Ice Core......Page 175
12 Where are we Headed During the Coming Century?......Page 176
12.1 Predictions Based on Past Climate Patterns......Page 177
 References......Page 178
6 Setting the Frames of Expected Future Sea Level Changes by Exploring Past Geological Sea Level Records......Page 182
2 Modeling Principles......Page 343
3 Frames of Glacial Eustatic Rise in Sea Level......Page 183
4 Field Evidence in the Maldives......Page 186
5 Setting the Frames of Future Sea Level Changes......Page 187
7 The State of Fear......Page 189
 Acknowledgments......Page 191
 References......Page 192
1 Introduction......Page 194
2 The Maldives Sea Level Project......Page 196
3.1 A Tree Cannot Lie......Page 197
3.3 The Governmental Attitude in Male......Page 198
3.5 The Moscow Meeting in 2004......Page 199
3.6 The President Enters the Scene......Page 200
4.3 Tide-Gauge Records......Page 201
4.4 Minicoy, Just North of the Maldives......Page 203
5 Conclusions and Ramifications......Page 204
 Acknowledgments......Page 205
1 Introduction......Page 207
2.1 The Sun Plays a Role in Our Climate in Direct and Indirect Ways......Page 247
9 Have Increases in CO2 Contributed to the Recent Large Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricanes Since 1995?......Page 219
2 Causes of the Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricane Activity Since 1995......Page 221
3 Why CO2 Increases are not Responsible for Atlantic SST and Hurricane Activity Increases......Page 223
3.1 Confusing Time Scales of SST Influences......Page 224
3.2 CO2 Influence on Hurricane Activity......Page 225
4.1 Theory of Human-Induced Increases Due to Rising CO2 Levels......Page 227
4.2 Theory of the THC (OR AMO)......Page 228
5.1 US Landfall Observations......Page 229
7 Special Characteristics of the Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Basin......Page 232
8 Variations in Strength of the THC......Page 236
9 Storage of West-Atlantic Sub-tropical Salinity......Page 240
10 Summary......Page 242
References......Page 244
1 Introduction......Page 246
2.2 Correlations with Total Solar Irradiance......Page 248
2.3 Warming Due to Ultraviolet Effects Through Ozone Chemistry......Page 250
2.4 Tropical Effects......Page 256
2.6 Solar Winds, Cosmic Rays and Clouds......Page 258
2.6.1 Throwback Solar Cycle 23......Page 260
2.7 Secular Cycles – Combined Natural Factors......Page 262
3 Summary......Page 266
 References......Page 267
 Index......Page 270
2 The Current Minimum......Page 271
3 Summary......Page 280
1 Introduction......Page 281
2 SMM/ACRIM1 vs. NIMBUS7/ERB......Page 285
4 SMM/ACRIM1 vs. UARS/ACRIM2......Page 296
5 UARS/ACRIM2 vs. ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3......Page 297
6 Three updated ACRIM TSI Composites......Page 298
7 TSI Proxy Secular Reconstructions......Page 300
8 Phenomenological solar signature on climate......Page 302
9 Conclusion......Page 304
 References......Page 306
3 Analysis and Results......Page 311
4 Discussion......Page 315
5 A Note on the Planck Parameter......Page 317
6 Conclusions......Page 318
 ISCCP FD and ERBE Satellite Radiative-flux Data Sources......Page 319
 Determination of Short-wave Flux Trends......Page 321
 References......Page 323
1 Introduction......Page 326
2 Approach......Page 328
3 Method......Page 331
3.1 Barycenter Ephemeris Preparation......Page 332
4 Result......Page 333
4.1 Details......Page 336
5.1.1 Rotation......Page 338
5.2 Predictions......Page 339
 References......Page 340
15 A Simple KISS Model to Examine the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 Concentration,and Ocean & Land Surface Temperatures,Taking into Consideration......Page 342
3.1.1 Endogenous/Dependent Variables of the KISS System......Page 344
3.1.2 Exogenous/Independent Variables of the System......Page 347
4.1 AMO Temperature Equation Estimation......Page 349
4.2 CO2 Equation Estimation......Page 353
4.3 The AMO Equation......Page 355
4.4.1 U.S. Temperature Equation......Page 359
4.5 KISS Model Forecasts and Validation......Page 362
4.6 KISS Model 2001–2030 Simulations......Page 363
 Acknowledgments......Page 370
 References......Page 371
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