Estimating Software-Intensive Systems: Projects, Products, and Processes

Contents......Page 6
Preface......Page 16
Acknowledgments......Page 23
About the Author......Page 25
Part 1: The Essentials......Page 26
 Chapter 1: Introduction......Page 28
  1.1 Reasons to Estimate and Measure......Page 29
  1.2 Specific Quantities to Estimate and Measure......Page 32
  1.3 The Nature of Estimation......Page 33
  1.4 Unprecedented Systems......Page 40
  1.5 Why Software Is Especially Hard to Estimate......Page 43
  1.6 A Practical Approach......Page 45
  1.8 Summary......Page 48
 Chapter 2: Planning a Warehouse Inventory System......Page 52
  2.1 Warehouse Inventory Management System......Page 53
  2.2 Recording the Information......Page 55
  2.3 Discussion of the Example......Page 60
  2.4 Doing Better: A Planning Workbook......Page 69
  2.6 Summary......Page 72
 Chapter 3: A Basic Estimating Process: The Linear Method......Page 74
  3.1 Criteria for "Good" Estimates......Page 75
  3.2 Types of Resources......Page 78
  3.3 Proxy-Based Estimation......Page 79
  3.4 The Linear Method: A Simple Process......Page 82
  3.5 Using the Linear Method......Page 89
  3.6 Documenting Your Estimates......Page 94
  3.7 Standard Forms......Page 98
  3.8 Managing Your Information......Page 101
  3.9 Recommended Reading......Page 103
  3.10 Summary......Page 104
 Chapter 4: Measurement and Estimation......Page 106
  4.1 Reasons to Measure......Page 107
  4.2 Measuring Size and Productivity (Direct and Indirect Measures)......Page 108
  4.3 Criteria for "Good" Measures......Page 116
  4.4 Operational Definitions......Page 118
  4.5 Choosing Useful Measures......Page 122
  4.6 Recommended Reading......Page 124
  4.7 Summary......Page 126
 Chapter 5: Estimating Techniques......Page 128
  5.1 Expert Judgment: The Delphi Technique......Page 129
  5.2 Additive and Multiplicative Analogies......Page 133
  5.3 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)......Page 137
  5.4 An Example: Using PERT Values......Page 140
  5.5 Using the PERT Values to Estimate Risk Reserve......Page 142
  5.6 Algorithmic Analogy Estimation......Page 145
  5.7 Recommended Reading......Page 148
  5.8 Summary......Page 149
  6.1 The Maintenance Process......Page 150
  6.2 Building the Estimation Model......Page 160
  6.3 Calibrating the Model......Page 166
  6.4 Tracking and Updating......Page 167
  6.5 Improving the Estimation Model......Page 169
  6.6 Recommended Reading......Page 174
  6.7 Summary......Page 176
Part 2: The Details......Page 178
 Chapter 7: Preparing to Estimate (Precursors of Estimation)......Page 180
  7.1 The Precursors of Estimation......Page 181
  7.2 How to Understand the Overall Job: The Key Diagrams......Page 182
  7.3 The Operational Concept......Page 184
  7.4 Identifying Products and Services......Page 187
  7.5 Product Requirements......Page 190
  7.6 Product Architecture......Page 196
  7.7 Project Goals and Constraints......Page 199
  7.9 Summary......Page 202
 Chapter 8: Estimating Software Size: The Basics......Page 204
  8.1 The Sizing Process......Page 205
  8.2 Example: Using the Operational Concept......Page 211
  8.3 Sizing Hardware......Page 216
  8.4 Accounting for Size Growth and Volatility......Page 219
  8.5 Tracking Size......Page 221
  8.6 Implementation Guidance......Page 228
  8.8 Summary......Page 230
 Chapter 9: Estimating Software Size: The Details......Page 232
  9.1 Requirements......Page 233
  9.2 UML-Based Sizing and Use Case Points......Page 234
  9.3 Application Points......Page 238
  9.4 Web Objects and Internet Points......Page 241
  9.5 Function Points......Page 242
  9.6 Simplified Ways to Count Function Points......Page 253
  9.7 Object-Oriented Size Measures......Page 263
  9.8 Defining Source Lines of Code (SLOC)......Page 264
  9.9 Estimating New Code......Page 269
  9.10 Sizing Reused Source Code......Page 276
  9.11 "Sizing" Commercial Off-the-Shelf Software Components......Page 289
  9.12 The COCOTS Model......Page 290
  9.13 Recommended Reading......Page 292
  9.14 Summary......Page 295
 Chapter 10: Production Processes (Project Life Cycles)......Page 298
  10.1 Elements of a Project Life Cycle Model......Page 299
  10.2 The Spectrum of Software Life Cycles......Page 300
  10.3 Choosing an Appropriate Project Life Cycle......Page 312
  10.4 Extending the Basic Development Life Cycle Models......Page 313
  10.5 Production and Delivery Activities......Page 324
  10.6 Recommended Reading......Page 329
  10.7 Summary......Page 330
 Chapter 11: Bottom-Up Estimating and Scheduling......Page 332
  11.1 Summary of the Process......Page 333
  11.2 The Work Breakdown Structure......Page 335
  11.3 Creating Your WBS......Page 340
  11.4 Scheduling......Page 345
  11.5 Building the Network: Cards on the Wall Method......Page 357
  11.6 Recommended Reading......Page 362
  11.7 Summary......Page 363
 Chapter 12: Top-Down Estimating and Allocation......Page 366
  12.1 Relating Effort, Duration, and Staffing......Page 367
  12.2 Planned Versus Actual Availability......Page 371
  12.3 Schedule Compression......Page 374
  12.4 Allocating Effort and Time......Page 377
  12.5 Some Examples......Page 394
  12.7 Summary......Page 398
  13.1 Types of Parametric Models......Page 402
  13.2 Core Effort and Schedule......Page 403
  13.3 A Simple Parametric Model......Page 405
  13.4 Adding Missing Phases and Activities......Page 407
  13.5 Adjusting for Different Characteristics......Page 408
  13.6 Handling Size, Cost, and Schedule Constraints......Page 412
  13.7 Evaluating a Hardware/Software Trade......Page 414
  13.8 Calibrating Parametric Models......Page 416
  13.9 Parametric Models for Hardware Costs......Page 426
  13.10 Selecting an Automated Estimation Tool......Page 428
  13.11 Helping Nonestimators Provide Good Parameter Values......Page 430
  13.12 Recommended Reading......Page 442
  13.13 Summary......Page 443
 Chapter 14: Estimating Risk Reserves......Page 446
  14.1 Concepts......Page 447
  14.2 The Risk Management Process......Page 449
  14.3 Identifying Risks and Mitigation Actions......Page 451
  14.4 Analyzing and Prioritizing Risks: Risk Impact......Page 458
  14.5 Calculating the Risk Reserve......Page 463
  14.6 Planning: Deciding to Defer Mitigation Tasks......Page 465
  14.8 Other Approaches......Page 468
  14.9 Recommended Reading......Page 469
  14.10 Summary......Page 470
 Chapter 15: Calculating Cost and Price: The Basics......Page 472
  15.1 Direct and Indirect Costs......Page 473
  15.2 Calculating Direct Costs......Page 474
  15.3 Calculating Indirect Costs......Page 476
  15.5 Calculating the Loaded Cost......Page 479
  15.6 Management Reserves......Page 480
  15.7 Cash Flow and Interest Costs......Page 481
  15.8 Opportunity Cost......Page 483
  15.9 Determining the Selling Price for a Product6......Page 484
  15.10 Evaluating the Total Ownership Cost......Page 486
  15.11 Evaluating a Product or Project......Page 489
  15.12 Reducing the Cost or Price......Page 491
  15.13 The Need for Multiple Models......Page 495
  15.14 Recommended Reading......Page 496
  15.15 Summary......Page 497
Part 3: Closing the Feedback Loop......Page 500
  16.1 Why Should You Even Collect Historical Data?......Page 502
  16.2 Collecting Data......Page 503
  16.3 Data Collection Templates......Page 504
  16.5 Collecting Effort and Cost Data......Page 525
  16.6 Recommended Reading......Page 527
  16.7 Summary......Page 528
 Chapter 17: Tracking Status......Page 530
  17.1 Assessing Status......Page 531
  17.2 Tracking Test Status......Page 532
  17.3 Tracking Size and Productivity......Page 538
  17.4 Tracking Size with Error Bars......Page 541
  17.5 Trendlines......Page 542
  17.6 Regression Fitting......Page 544
  17.7 Other Ways to Detect Trouble......Page 546
  17.9 Summary......Page 548
 Chapter 18: Updating Estimates......Page 550
  18.1 Reasons to Update Estimates......Page 551
  18.3 When to Prepare Updated Estimates......Page 553
  18.4 Preparing Updated Estimates......Page 555
  18.5 Preparing an Estimate to Complete......Page 559
  18.7 Summary......Page 564
 Chapter 19: Consolidating and Applying Your Knowledge......Page 566
  19.1 Review of Estimation and Measurement......Page 567
  19.2 Implementing Estimation and Measurement......Page 568
  19.3 Defining an Estimation Process......Page 569
  19.4 Establishing an Integrated Estimation Process......Page 571
  19.5 Useful Resources......Page 575
  19.6 Addressing New Technologies and Processes......Page 576
  19.7 Recommended Reading......Page 578
  19.8 Summary......Page 579
Part 4: Handling Large Projects......Page 582
 Chapter 20: Crafting a WBS......Page 584
  20.1 The Work Breakdown Structure: Additional Concepts......Page 585
  20.2 A Generic WBS (HW, SW, Data, Services)......Page 587
  20.3 Examples of Alternate Partitioning......Page 600
  20.4 Customizing Your WBS......Page 605
  20.5 Recommended Reading......Page 607
  20.6 Summary......Page 609
  21.1 Concepts......Page 610
  21.2 Assessing Overall Project Status......Page 615
  21.3 Converting Schedule Variance to Time......Page 616
  21.4 Interim Milestones......Page 618
  21.5 Earned Value Example......Page 620
  21.6 Prediction Completion Costs......Page 621
  21.7 Recommended Reading......Page 623
  21.8 Summary......Page 624
  22.1 Project Tracking Systems......Page 626
  22.3 Defining "Good" Charge Numbers......Page 628
  22.4 Limitations of Accounting Systems......Page 631
  22.5 Activity-Based Costing......Page 633
  22.6 Tracking Heterogeneous Project Teams......Page 634
  22.7 Tracking IDIQ Contracts......Page 635
  22.8 Recommended Reading......Page 636
  22.9 Summary......Page 637
  23.1 Review of Direct and Indirect Costs......Page 638
  23.2 Rate Types for U.S. Government Contracts......Page 639
  23.3 Financial Risks of U.S. Government Contracts......Page 645
  23.4 Calculating a Bid Price......Page 647
  23.6 Cash Flow and Interest Costs......Page 650
  23.7 Setting a Bid Price......Page 651
  23.8 Reducing the Price......Page 652
  23.10 Summary......Page 655
Part 5: Estimating Products and Processes......Page 656
  24.1 Types of Product Performance......Page 658
  24.2 Estimating and Measuring Software Performance......Page 661
  24.3 Performance Measurement......Page 664
  24.4 Rough Order of Magnitude Calculations......Page 666
  24.5 The Resource Usage Matrix......Page 667
  24.6 Modeling Web-Based Systems......Page 668
  24.7 Queueing Models......Page 674
  24.8 Simulation......Page 690
  24.9 Choosing a Technique......Page 696
  24.10 Performance Engineering Process......Page 698
  24.11 Estimating Costs for Performance Engineering......Page 701
  24.12 Recommended Reading......Page 703
  24.13 Summary......Page 705
  25.1 Why Product Quality Is Important......Page 708
  25.2 Defining Quality......Page 709
  25.3 Determining Quality During a Project......Page 712
  25.4 Estimating Defects During Design and Construction......Page 714
  25.5 RADC Model......Page 715
  25.6 COQUALMO......Page 720
  25.7 Measuring Defects During Testing......Page 722
  25.8 Estimating Software Reliability......Page 723
  25.9 Error Trending......Page 728
  25.11 Observing Defects During Actual Use......Page 731
  25.12 Closing the Loop......Page 732
  25.13 Internal Measures of Software Quality......Page 733
  25.14 Measures of Document Quality......Page 736
  25.15 Recommended Reading......Page 740
  25.16 Summary......Page 741
  26.1 Defining a Process......Page 744
  26.2 Controlling Production Processes......Page 746
  26.3 Measuring Process Performance......Page 748
  26.4 Measuring the Cost of Quality......Page 753
  26.5 Predicting Process Performance......Page 758
  26.6 Statistical Process Control......Page 762
  26.7 Staged Defect Removal Models......Page 766
  26.8 Dynamic Models......Page 775
  26.9 Building Process Performance Models......Page 782
  26.10 Recommended Reading......Page 784
  26.11 Summary......Page 786
 Chapter 27: Ranking and Selecting Items......Page 788
  27.1 Introduction......Page 790
  27.2 Voting Techniques......Page 791
  27.3 A Technique to Handle Two Criteria......Page 797
  27.4 Techniques to Handle Multiple Criteria......Page 799
  27.5 Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)......Page 800
  27.6 The Analytic Hierarchy Process......Page 803
  27.7 Estimating Module Size Using AHP......Page 805
  27.8 Recommended Reading......Page 809
  27.9 Summary......Page 811
Appendix A: Roles and Responsibilities for Estimation......Page 814
 B.1 Measurement and Scale Types......Page 832
 B.2 Statistics and Scale Types......Page 835
 B.3 Statistical Measures......Page 836
 B.4 Recommended Reading......Page 840
 C.1 Statistics of a Set of Estimates......Page 842
 C.2 Statistics of a Time Sequence of Estimates......Page 844
 C.3 Choosing the "Best" Measure of Estimation Accuracy......Page 845
 C.4 Using Excel to Calculate Estimation Error......Page 846
Appendix D: Summation Formulas for Series......Page 848
 E.1 Introduction......Page 850
 E.2 Basic Concepts......Page 853
 E.3 Labeling Spreadsheets and Documents......Page 858
 E.4 Helping Users......Page 862
 E.5 Printing......Page 865
 E.6 Plotting ("Charting")......Page 866
 E.7 Advanced Features......Page 872
 E.8 Macros and Visual Basic for Applications......Page 874
Acronyms......Page 884
 Introduction......Page 892
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  W......Page 922
Bibliography......Page 924
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