Environmental Change, Climate and Health: Issues and Research Methods

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Contributors......Page 9
Foreword......Page 13
1.1 Introduction......Page 17
1.2 “Environment”: the wider dimension......Page 18
1.3.1 Hunter-gatherers......Page 21
1.3.3 Commerce, conquest and microbial confluence......Page 22
1.3.6 An increasingly full world: the advent of global environmental change......Page 23
1.4 Environment and health: recent developments......Page 24
1.5 Challenges to population health research......Page 26
1.5.1.2 Uncertainties......Page 27
1.5.1.3 Vulnerability and adaptation......Page 28
1.5.2.2 Empirical studies of early health effects......Page 29
1.5.2.4 Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing......Page 30
1.6 Conclusions......Page 31
References......Page 32
2.1 Environmental medicine before epidemiology......Page 34
2.1.1 The Scientific Revolution and the “terraqueous globe”......Page 36
2.1.2 Climate and disease during the early modern centuries: perceptions and realities......Page 37
2.2 Thinking locally, acting globally......Page 38
2.2.1 Miasm versus contagion......Page 39
2.2.2 Enter cholera, enter Snow......Page 40
2.2.3 Global environmentalism, 1850–1914......Page 44
2.2.4 The West takes the rest......Page 46
2.3 Conquering heroes, stubborn foes......Page 47
2.3.1 Tropical medicine and the germ theory misfits......Page 48
2.3.2 Epidemiology at war: 1920–1950......Page 50
2.3.3 When was the revolution in epidemiology?......Page 53
2.4.1 Horizontal epidemiology......Page 54
2.4.2 Vertical epidemiology......Page 56
2.4.3 Problems in the epidemiology of “disease campaigns”......Page 58
2.5 Conclusion......Page 59
References......Page 61
Bibliography......Page 66
3.2 Environment and health: prologue......Page 68
3.2.1 Historical survey......Page 69
3.2.2 Causal webs of environmental risk factors......Page 75
3.3 Environment in the current health context......Page 79
3.3.1 What is “environmental”?......Page 80
3.3.2 What is “ill-health”?......Page 83
3.3.3 What is “attributable risk”?......Page 87
3.3.4 Global environment–health connections today......Page 89
3.4.1 Avoidable risk......Page 92
3.4.1.1 Temporal factors modifying avoidable risk......Page 93
3.4.1.2 The SALY (sustainability-adjusted life year)......Page 98
3.4.2 Where do future dangers lie?......Page 101
3.5 Conclusion: beyond redefining and reconceptualizing......Page 105
References......Page 108
4.1 Introduction......Page 112
4.2.1 Complex interactions......Page 113
4.2.2 Modelling living systems......Page 115
4.3 Models......Page 117
4.4.1 Concavity and convexity......Page 125
4.4.2 Signed digraphs (loop analysis)......Page 128
4.4.3 Time averaging......Page 131
4.5 Summary......Page 133
References......Page 134
5.1 Introduction......Page 136
5.2 Epidemiological study designs......Page 137
5.3 Population-level or ecological studies......Page 138
5.4.2 Case–control studies......Page 141
5.4.2.1 Hantavirus and El Niño: a case–control design linking climate, ecology and infectious disease through the use of…......Page 142
5.4.3 Cohort studies......Page 143
5.5 Surveillance......Page 144
5.7 Exposure assessment......Page 145
5.8.1 Time series analysis......Page 147
5.8.2 Examples of other innovative statistical methods......Page 148
5.9 Health impact assessment methods......Page 151
5.9.1 Modelling future risks to health......Page 153
5.10 Conclusion......Page 156
References......Page 157
6.1 Introduction......Page 160
6.2 Climate change, climate variability and epidemiology......Page 161
6.3 Analogues: a definition......Page 171
6.3.2 Analogues using long-term changes in mean climate variables......Page 172
6.3.3 Event analogues......Page 174
6.3.4 Spatial analogues......Page 175
6.3.4.1 Analogues for temperature-related mortality and acclimatization......Page 176
6.3.5 Situation analogues......Page 177
6.4.1 The El Niño climate phenomenon......Page 178
6.4.2 El Niño and health studies......Page 179
6.4.3 El Niño and mosquito-borne disease......Page 180
6.4.3.1 Malaria......Page 181
6.4.3.2 Murray Valley encephalitis and Ross River virus disease in Australia......Page 184
6.4.3.3 Dengue......Page 185
6.5 Is El Niño a useful analogue for climate change?......Page 186
6.6 Discussion and conclusions......Page 190
References......Page 191
7.1 Introduction......Page 196
7.2 Assessing the evidence for climate-change impacts on disease......Page 199
7.3 Detecting climatic changes, changes in disease vectors and human health......Page 200
7.3.1 Climatic changes......Page 201
7.3.2 Detection of climate (change) effects on vectors......Page 202
7.3.3 Detection of climate (change) effects on human disease......Page 203
7.3.4 Changes in disease distribution, transmission intensity and seasonality......Page 205
7.4.1 Shifting isotherms and shrinking glaciers......Page 207
7.4.3 Insects and ticks......Page 208
7.4.4 Mosquito-borne diseases......Page 210
7.4.5 Extreme weather events and infectious diseases......Page 211
7.5 Implications for future research......Page 212
7.6 Conclusions......Page 213
References......Page 214
8.1 Introduction......Page 221
8.2 Integrated Assessment......Page 222
8.3 Integrated Assessment models......Page 224
8.4 IA modelling of population and health......Page 228
8.4.1.1 Future food production and risk of hunger......Page 229
8.4.1.2 Stratospheric ozone depletion, ultraviolet irradiation and skin cancer incidence......Page 230
8.4.1.3 Climate change and vector-borne diseases......Page 231
8.4.2 Economic analysis of health impacts in IAMs......Page 233
8.5 Critical methodological issues in IA modelling of human health......Page 237
8.5.1 Validation in the absence of good data......Page 238
8.5.2 Cumulating uncertainties......Page 239
8.5.3 Blending qualitative and quantitative knowledge......Page 241
8.5.4 A matter of scale......Page 242
8.6 The way ahead......Page 244
References......Page 246
Acronyms......Page 250
9.2 Background......Page 251
9.3.1 Remote sensing......Page 254
9.3.2 Resolution......Page 256
9.3.3 Geographical Information Systems......Page 259
9.3.4 Spatial analysis: tools......Page 261
9.4.1 Low resolution......Page 263
9.4.2 High resolution......Page 264
9.4.4 Malaria......Page 265
9.4.6 Tsetse flies......Page 266
9.5 Future systems, future applications......Page 267
9.6 Conclusions......Page 268
References......Page 270
10.1 Introduction......Page 277
10.2 Background......Page 278
10.3.1 Early detection of health impacts of climate change......Page 279
10.3.2 Indirect health impact assessment......Page 281
10.3.3 Improved understanding of vulnerability......Page 283
10.3.4 Generation and validation of predictive mathematical models......Page 284
10.4 Which health impacts should be monitored?......Page 285
10.5.1 Climate......Page 288
10.5.2 Health outcomes......Page 289
10.5.3 Intermediate stages and environmental data......Page 290
10.5.5 Other confounding variables and effect modifiers......Page 291
10.6 Direct effects of thermal extremes on health......Page 292
10.7 Natural disasters caused by extreme weather events: storms and floods......Page 293
10.7.1 Currently available information......Page 294
10.8.1 Food-borne illness......Page 295
10.8.1.1 Currently available information......Page 296
10.8.2 Water-related illness......Page 297
10.9 Vector-borne disease......Page 299
10.9.1 Lyme borreliosis......Page 300
10.9.2 Tick-borne encephalitis......Page 301
10.9.2.1 Currently available information......Page 302
10.9.3 Leishmaniasis......Page 303
10.9.4 Malaria......Page 304
10.9.4.1 Currently available information......Page 306
10.10 Conclusions......Page 307
References......Page 309
11.1 Introduction......Page 314
11.2.1 General features of environmental epidemiology......Page 315
11.2.2 Some shortcomings......Page 318
11.3.1 Definitions......Page 320
11.3.2 Manifestations......Page 321
11.3.3 Causes of vulnerability......Page 324
11.3.4 Implications for epidemiology......Page 328
11.4 Conclusion......Page 331
References......Page 332
12.1 Introduction......Page 335
12.2 Classifying “uncertainties”......Page 336
12.3 Risk, duty-of-care and adaptive action: the policy-making landscape......Page 340
12.3.1 The example of climate change and its impacts......Page 342
12.4 Dealing with risks......Page 343
12.4.1 The changing interpretation of risk......Page 344
12.4.2 Implications for science......Page 346
12.4.3 Deliberative and inclusionary science......Page 348
12.5 Conclusion......Page 352
References......Page 354
Bibliography......Page 357
Index......Page 358