Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2020

Table of contents
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Acronyms and abbreviations
Executive summary
Overview
Chapter 1: Macroeconomic assessment and economic outlook
	Introduction
	Other key points of the economic outlook and assessment
	Recent developments and near-term outlook
	Risks persist for Emerging Asia’s exports amid global trade instability
	Export weakness is accompanied by falling investment as manufacturing struggles
	Current account balances are under stress but remain largely stable
	Headline inflation remains subdued but food prices are rising in some countries
	Central banks take strong steps to prop up growth and investment sentiment
	Enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy in Emerging Asia
	The flattening of the Phillips curve in Southeast Asia
	Governments favour gradual and contained fiscal expansion
	Challenges to the Outlook
	Assessing the economic impact of natural disasters: Local data change the picture
	New approaches to disaster risk management are needed, including at the local level
	Notes
	References
Chapter 2: Upgrading education for the digital era
	Introduction
	Boosting digital readiness in Emerging Asia
	Vocational and lifelong learning as paths to digital inclusion
	Conclusion
	Notes
	References
Chapter 3: Structural policy country notes
	ASEAN-5
		Indonesia
		Malaysia
		Philippines
		Thailand
		Viet Nam
	Brunei Darussalam and Singapore
		Brunei Darussalam
		Singapore
	CLM
		Cambodia
		Lao PDR
		Myanmar
	China and India
		China
		India
Annex A. Statistical annex
Figures
	Figure 1. Real GDP growth in Southeast Asia, China and India
	Figure 2. Growth in goods imports of China and United States by partner, 2017-19
	Figure 3. Real growth in selected GDP components in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, 2018-19
	Figure 4. The Phillips curve for Thailand and Singapore
	Figure 6. Current and future skills demand and supply in three Emerging Asian countries - simulation
	Figure 7. Employment in the ICT sector in Emerging Asia
	Figure 8. Change in adult learning participation rates in Emerging Asia since 2009
	Figure 9. Countries collecting information by type of outcome in Emerging Asia
	Figure 1.1. Real GDP growth in Southeast Asia, China and India
	Figure 1.2. Contribution to GDP growth in Indonesia, 2017-19
	Figure 1.3. Contribution to GDP growth in Malaysia, 2017-19
	Figure 1.4. Consumer confidence indices in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, 2017-19
	Figure 1.5. Contribution to GDP growth in the Philippines, 2017-19
	Figure 1.6. Contribution to GDP growth in Thailand, 2017-19
	Figure 1.7. Contribution to GDP growth in Viet Nam, 2017-19
	Figure 1.8. Insured losses from natural disasters in Asian countries, 2012-18
	Figure 1.9. Contribution to GDP growth in Brunei Darussalam, 2017-19
	Figure 1.10. Contribution to GDP and total demand growth in Singapore, 2017-19
	Figure 1.11. Business expectations and leading indicator indices in Singapore, 2017-19
	Figure 1.12. Contribution to GDP growth in Cambodia, 2016-18
	Figure 1.13. Contribution to GDP growth in Lao PDR, 2016-18
	Figure 1.14. Contribution to GDP growth in Myanmar, 2016-18
	Figure 1.15. Contribution to GDP growth in China, 2017-19
	Figure 1.16. China’s shadow banking continues to shrink
	Figure 1.17. Purchasing managers’ and confidence indices in China, 2017-19
	Figure 1.18. Contribution to GDP growth in India, 2017-19
	Figure 1.19. Purchasing managers’ and confidence indices in India, 2017-19
	Figure 1.20. Growth in goods exports of Emerging Asia, 2017-19
	Figure 1.21. Growth in goods imports of China and the United States by partner, 2017-19
	Figure 1.22. Private consumption, exports and fixed investment real growth
	Figure 1.23. Manufacturing and services real growth
	Figure 1.24. Current account balance and net exports of Emerging Asia, 2017-19
	Figure 1.25. Current account balance, 2019-24
	Figure 1.26. Foreign direct investment in Emerging Asia, 2017-19
	Figure 1.27. Headline, core and food inflation in Emerging Asia, 2017-19
	Figure 1.28. Consumer price index weights
	Figure 1.29. Monetary policy actions in selected Emerging Asian economies in 2019
	Figure 1.30. Benchmark bond yield and term differentials
	Figure 1.31. Portfolio and other investment liability inflows in Emerging Asia 2017-19
	Figure 1.32. Nominal effective exchange rate in selected Emerging Asian economies, 2019
	Figure 1.33. Returns on benchmark equity indices in Emerging Asia, 2018-19
	Figure 1.34. Growth in house price indices of selected Emerging Asian economies, 2018-19
	Figure 1.35. Headline inflation in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand
	Figure 1.36. The Phillips curve for Thailand and Singapore
	Figure 1.37. Target inflation band and actual inflation in Thailand
	Figure 1.38. Target inflation band and actual inflation in Indonesia and the Philippines
	Figure 1.39. Recorded occurrences of natural disasters in Emerging Asia, 1950-2018
	Figure 1.40. Occurrence of tsunamis in Emerging Asia in the last 50 years
	Figure 1.41. Three-year average growth rates of selected variables after a natural disaster, based on principal component analysis (PCA) approach
	Figure 1.42. Annual new internal displacement associated with disasters, 2013-18 average
	Figure 2.1. Current and future skills demand and supply in three Emerging Asian countries – simulation
	Figure 2.2. Employment in the ICT sector in Emerging Asia
	Figure 2.3. Socio-economic gap in digital access in schools, 2012
	Figure 2.4. PISA 2015 performance and ICT use at school
	Figure 2.5. ICT in education in the Philippines, 2012
	Figure 2.6. Vocational teachers with satisfactory computer skills in Viet Nam, 2017
	Figure 2.7. Teachers’ attitudes towards the use of ICT for teaching
	Figure 2.8. Access to basic services at public lower secondary schools
	Figure 2.9. Internet users in China’s rural and urban areas, 2014-17
	Figure 2.10. ICT usage indicators in selected Emerging Asian countries, 2017
	Figure 2.11. Share of secondary students enrolled in vocational programmes, 2016
	Figure 2.12. The education system in Finland
	Figure 2.13. The education system in the Philippines
	Figure 2.14. Change in adult learning participation rates in Emerging Asia since 2009
	Figure 2.15. Countries collecting information by type of outcome in Emerging Asia
	Figure 3.1.1. Levels of education in Indonesia
	Figure 3.1.2. Main weaknesses of SMKs as perceived by employees in Indonesia
	Figure 3.1.3. SMK teachers’ level of education in Indonesia
	Figure 3.2.1. Proportion of enterprises per 1 000 people in Malaysia
	Figure 3.3.1. Participation of non-high school graduates in the Philippine labour force, 2012-18
	Figure 3.4.1. The main sources of income for elderly people in Thailand, 2007 and 2017
	Figure 3.4.2. Average sources of income for older people for OECD countries, 2014 or latest available year
	Figure 3.6.1. Share of workforce with tertiary education as highest educational attainment, 2017
	Figure 3.7.1. Child-to-teacher ratios in early childhood education and care in 2017
	Figure 3.7.2. Public spending on ECEC per child, 2016
	Figure 3.8.1. Labour force distribution in Cambodia by education level, 2010-16
	Figure 3.9.1. Organic farming area in ASEAN, 2017
	Figure 3.9.2. Global organic markets by region, 2008-17
	Figure 3.11.1. Contribution to growth 2000-18: A key role for investment in China
	Figure 3.11.2. China’s current account balance, saving rate and investment rate, 1997-2018
	Figure 3.11.3. China’s capital stock relative to selected countries
Tables
	Table 1. Country-specific challenges for digital education in Emerging Asia
	Table 2. Structural policy challenges in Emerging Asian countries
	Table 1.1. Real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2018-24
	Table 1.2. Quarterly real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2018-19
	Table 1.3. Tariff measures and reprieves, United States and China, 2018-19
	Table 1.4. Economic benefits of coral reefs
	Table 1.5. Conventional vs. smart approaches to disaster risk management
	Table 2.1. Country-specific challenges for digital education in Emerging Asia
	Table 2.2. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Indonesia
	Table 2.3. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Malaysia
	Table 2.4. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in the Philippines
	Table 2.5. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Thailand
	Table 2.6. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Viet Nam
	Table 2.7. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Brunei Darussalam
	Table 2.8. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Singapore
	Table 2.9. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Cambodia
	Table 2.10. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Lao PDR
	Table 2.11. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in Myanmar
	Table 2.12. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in China
	Table 2.13. Key figures on ICT and education sectors in India
	Table 2.14. Examples of initiatives on ICT use in TVET
	Table 2.15. Purposes and sources of the Informatisation Promotion Fund
	Table 3.3.1. Budget spending of the Department of Education
	Table 3.5.1. Digital payments in Viet Nam
	Table 3.5.2. ICT development index for Viet Nam and selected Asian countries
	Table 3.12.1. Mechanisms employed to manage the flow of road traffic
	Table 3.12.2. Examples of vehicle ownership and road-use charges
	Table A.1. Real GDP growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2018-24
	Table A.2. Current account balances of ASEAN, China and India, 2019-24
	Table A.3. General government fiscal balances of ASEAN, China and India, 2019-24
Boxes
	Box 1.1. Key assumptions of the medium-term outlook to 2024
	Box 1.2. Strengthening the disaster risk insurance market in ASEAN
	Box 1.3. Shadow banking in China
	Box 1.4. Recent developments in the US-China trade tensions
	Box 1.5. Consumer price index composition in Emerging Asia
	Box 1.6. The Phillips curve: Thailand and Singapore
	Box 1.7. The case for installing tsunami detection buoys
	Box 1.8. The economic benefits of coral reefs in reducing natural disaster risks
	Box 1.9. Recent reforms to disaster risk management frameworks at the national level
	Box 1.10. Community involvement in disaster risk management
	Box 1.11. The effect of natural disasters on internal migration
	Box 1.12. Early warning steps in the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-15
	Box 1.13. Education to prepare for natural disasters
	Box 2.1. Teaching digital skills to rural women in Thailand
	Box 2.2. ICT use in schools: How much is too much?
	Box 2.3. Malaysia’s Smart School Initiative
	Box 2.4. Perspective on teachers’ digital skills from OECD economies
	Box 2.5. Making TVET more attractive
	Box 2.6. Financial literacy strategies and digitalisation
	Box 2.7. The Estonian digital education framework
	Box 2.8. Korea’s ICT human resource development policy
	Box 3.1.1. Indonesia’s education system
	Box 3.1.2. Harmonising certification system and improving non-formal institutions
	Box 3.2.1. Human capital and innovation programmes for SMEs in Malaysia
	Box 3.4.1. KiwiSaver’s strategies for boosting people’s propensity to save
	Box 3.5.1. Ride-sharing apps in Viet Nam
	Box 3.8.1. Recent programmes to develop human capital in Cambodia