Econometric Decision Models: New Methods of Modeling and Applications

Front Matter....Pages I-VIII
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Introduction to the conference on econometric decision models: for better balanced research and more interdisciplinary and international cooperation....Pages 3-14
Some Recent Developments in Policy Making with Macroeconometric Models....Pages 15-36
Front Matter....Pages 37-37
Optimal Stabilization with a Macroeconometric Model for Hungary: Investigating the Effects of Different Objective Functions and Time Horizons....Pages 39-50
On Causality and Control in Economic Systems....Pages 51-56
Optimal control of nonlinear stochastic macroeconometric models: An algorithm and an economic example....Pages 57-77
Game Theoretical Approach to Optimal Control of Economic Systems....Pages 79-93
Nonlinear Optimal Control Simulations of Development Strategies....Pages 94-118
On Some Properties of the Solution of the Optimal Control Problem for the Original Long — Term Macroeconomic Model....Pages 119-128
Front Matter....Pages 129-129
Implementing the reference-point approach to multi-criteria decision making in econometric models in the computerprogram LOS....Pages 131-148
Optimal Economic Policy Making With an Econometric Model Using Interactive Methods of Vector Optimization....Pages 149-163
Front Matter....Pages 165-165
Public Preferences and Their Role in the Design of Economic Policy....Pages 167-184
Least squares estimation of quadratic preference functions for econometric decision models based on survey data....Pages 185-204
Operationalizing a Macro-Economic Preference Function....Pages 205-221
On Constructing Objective Functions....Pages 222-247
Optimal dictatorial and multi-dictatorial choice in Arrow’s model with applications to multicriteria decision making....Pages 248-266
Front Matter....Pages 267-267
Rational Versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models....Pages 269-284
The Finnish Rational Expectations Qmed Model: Estimation, Dynamic Properties and Policy Results....Pages 285-304
Qualms About the Linearized Expectations Hypothesis and Variance-Bounds Studies of the Interest Rate Term Structure....Pages 305-319
Front Matter....Pages 321-321
The Power Function of the Likelihood Ratio Test for Cointegration....Pages 323-335
Long—run relations in a well—defined statistical model for the data generating process. Cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP relations for Denmark and Germany....Pages 336-357
Front Matter....Pages 321-321
Interest Rate Linkages Between EC Countries Participating in the European Monetary System: An Application of Cointegration....Pages 358-381
Front Matter....Pages 383-383
Estimating the Second Moments of Random Coefficients....Pages 385-403
Tighter Bounds for the Effects of Arma Disturbances on Tests for Regression Coefficients....Pages 404-418
True VS. Nominal Size of the F-Test in the Linear Regression Model with Autocorrelated Disturbances....Pages 419-428
Asymptotic and Small-Sample Properties of the Fixpoint-Estimator for Rational Expectations Models....Pages 429-458
The analysis of non-metric endogenous variables in latent variable models: The MECOSA approach....Pages 459-472
Econometric Modelling with Interval Coefficients — A Non-Stochastic Approach....Pages 473-484
Front Matter....Pages 485-485
Optimal triangulation of a matrix and a measure of interdependence for a linear econometric equation system....Pages 487-495
Evaluating the number of zero eigenvalues in a dynamic model....Pages 496-501
Forecast and multiplier sensitivity analysis with respect to changes of structural equations and submodels in dynamic systems....Pages 502-515
Structural Sensitivity Analysis in Econometric Models: An Application to the Model of the West German Textile and Apparel Industry....Pages 516-536
Front Matter....Pages 537-537
The Optimum Price of Energy: A Thermoeconomic Analysis....Pages 539-545
Energy Resources Depletion and Economic Growth....Pages 546-550
Econometric methods as an instrument for estimating external costs per unit of emission: the case of a groundwater model....Pages 551-555
Front Matter....Pages 557-557
Microeconometric research at the Sonderforschungsbereich 3....Pages 559-569
Income and Price Policy Making with an Econometric Model of Financial Incomes and Expenditures of Poland’s Population....Pages 570-587
Keynesian or Classical Unemployment in West Germany? — An Empirical Analysis with a Disequilibrium Model —....Pages 588-590
A Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Model for Poland....Pages 591-609
Evaluating econometric models: The 1988 forecast of the RWI-business cycle model in retrospect....Pages 610-625
The Macroeconometric Model of the Deutsche Bundesbank — A Brief Review....Pages 626-633
Back Matter....Pages 635-636