Developments in dual system estimation of population size and growth

Contents......Page 6
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Preface......Page 15
Introduction......Page 17
1.1 The need for improved demographic data......Page 20
1.2 An overview of the available techniques......Page 21
1.3 The theory behind the PGE/ ERAD/ ECP technique......Page 27
1.4 The PGE handbook and some essential PGE/ ERAD/ ECP features......Page 29
1.5 An ideal PGE/ ERAD/ ECP exercise......Page 31
1.6 An overview of the world uses of the PGE/ ERAD/ ECP technique......Page 32
1.7 Modes of securing the advantages of the technique......Page 44
1.8.b: Matters affecting matching procedure......Page 46
1.8.d: Matters affecting organization......Page 47
1.10 The paucity and importance of costing data......Page 48
1.11 The past history and the probable future of the technique......Page 67
Discussion......Page 68
2.1 Introduction......Page 72
2.2.a: Some general sampling considerations......Page 73
2.2.b: The need for realistic parameters......Page 74
2.2.d: Some aids to improved estimation......Page 75
2.3.a: The essential elements of a dual collection system......Page 76
2.3.b: The continuous recording procedure......Page 77
2.3.c: The household survey procedure......Page 80
2.3.d: Matching procedures......Page 82
2.3.e: Field identification procedures and other factors common to both collection procedures......Page 83
Discussion......Page 88
3.2 Pooling cross section and time series data......Page 93
Estimator 1......Page 94
Estimator 2......Page 95
Estimator 3......Page 96
Discussion......Page 98
4.2 Counting rules......Page 100
4.3 Multiplicity estimators......Page 101
4.4 Dual system multiplicity estimators......Page 102
4.6 Relative precision of different rules......Page 103
4.7 Conclusion......Page 105
Appendix B to chapter 4: Simplification of Ω[sub(r)]......Page 106
Discussion......Page 108
5.2 Some observations......Page 111
5.3 Some undertakings in Madagascar......Page 113
5.4 The Tunisian experiment......Page 114
5.6 An endeavour in Algeria......Page 115
5.7 Morocco: an extended experiment......Page 116
5.8 Dual collection in Liberia......Page 118
Discussion......Page 119
6.2 Study design......Page 123
6.3 Findings of the study......Page 125
6.4 An evaluation of the estimates......Page 127
6.5 Conclusion......Page 128
Discussion......Page 129
7.1 Moroccan demography......Page 132
7.3 Cluster size and some consequences......Page 133
7.4 The efficiency of personnel: resident and outside......Page 134
7.5 The numbering of structures......Page 135
7.6.c: Events in medical institutions......Page 136
7.6.d: The problem of supervision in the field......Page 137
Discussion......Page 138
8.1 Features of field work most relevant to matching......Page 141
8.2 The purpose of matching......Page 142
8.3 Experimental matching: procedure used......Page 143
8.4 Experimental matching: problems encountered......Page 145
8.5 Production matching......Page 147
8.5.a: Vital rates......Page 148
8.5.b: Field verification......Page 151
8.6 Conclusion......Page 152
8.A.2 Data available from an experimental matching study......Page 154
8.A.3 The variances of the estimator and its estimation......Page 156
8.A.4 Comparison of matching rules......Page 158
8.A.5 A proposal for a decision process......Page 160
9.2 Some African experiences with the PGE/ ERAD/ ECP......Page 164
9.3 Analytic techniques......Page 167
9.4 Some African experiences with analytic techniques......Page 169
Discussion......Page 172
10.1 The importance of publishing a census evaluation......Page 175
10.2 Methods of census evaluation and their biases and variances......Page 176
10.3 Internal and external consistency analysis......Page 177
10.4 Dual system estimation......Page 178
10.5 The two types of PES (post-enumeration survey)......Page 180
10.6 A PES with a PGE/ ERAD/ ECP approach......Page 181
10.7 Out-of-scope error in a PES......Page 183
10.8 Widening the available options for census evaluation......Page 184
PGE/ ERAD/ ECP issues......Page 185
General survey research issues......Page 186
10.A.1 Introduction to the Korean and Paraguayan results......Page 187
10.A.2 Overall results: Korea......Page 189
10.A.3 Overall results: Paraguay......Page 190
10.A.5 Differences in completeness between types of area......Page 192
10.A.6 Completeness differences correlated with sex and age......Page 193
10.A.7 Differences in completeness related to household composition and migration status......Page 200
10.A.8 Post-stratification......Page 204
10.A.9 Handling of migrants with \"insufficient information for matching\"......Page 205
11.1 The traditional PES approach......Page 208
11.2 Dual system estimation......Page 210
11.3 Independence......Page 212
11.4 Other biases......Page 215
11.5 Handling of migrants......Page 216
11.6 Use of one-way matching......Page 217
11.8 PES results......Page 218
11.9 Some defects of the Liberian PES......Page 219
11.10 Conclusion......Page 221
12.1 C. Scott on Sources of error in the dual system approach......Page 224
12.2 V.H. Muhsam on The bias of the PGE/ ERAD/ ECP estimates due to overenumeration......Page 227
Discussion......Page 229
Appendix: International Association of Survey Statistians Meeting, Vienna, 1973: Organizer\'s Report......Page 234
C......Page 237
D......Page 238
E......Page 239
G......Page 240
M......Page 241
O......Page 243
R......Page 244
S......Page 246
W......Page 247
About the Authors......Page 248
References......Page 254
B......Page 267
C......Page 268
G......Page 270
M......Page 271
P......Page 273
Q......Page 274
S......Page 275
V......Page 276
W......Page 277