Developing senior Navy leaders : requirements for flag officer expertise today and in the future

Cover......Page 1
Preface......Page 4
Contents......Page 6
Figures......Page 10
Tables......Page 12
Summary......Page 14
Recommendations......Page 20
Acknowledgments......Page 22
Abbreviations......Page 24
CHAPTER ONE   Introduction......Page 26
Organization of This Monograph......Page 28
CHAPTER TWO   Background......Page 30
Flag Officers Serve in a Wide Range of Billets......Page 31
What Kinds of Officers Lead the Navy?......Page 33
CHAPTER THREE  A Framework for Understanding Flag Officer Billet Requirements......Page 44
Domain Expertise......Page 45
Leadership, Management, and Enterprise Expertise......Page 48
Identifying the Requirements for Expertise......Page 49
The Job Book Documents Area-of-Expertise and Other Billet Requirements......Page 50
Flexibility in Primary Area of Expertise......Page 52
Secondary Areas of Expertise......Page 54
Importance of Leadership, Management, and Enterprise Expertise......Page 55
Relating Expertise Requirements to Pre-Flag Officer Development......Page 59
Flag Officer Requirements Have Critical Bottlenecks......Page 61
Reconciling the Constraining Requirements......Page 66
CHAPTER FIVE  Matching Domain Expertise to Billets in the Navy Flag Officer Force......Page 68
Modeling the Average Flows of Inventory in the Flag Officer Ranks......Page 69
Application of the Data in the Model......Page 72
Upper Bounds on Promotion Probabilities and Thresholds on Promotion Rates......Page 75
Some Results from a Sample Run of the Model......Page 76
Exploring Annual Promotion Rates......Page 78
Concluding Remarks......Page 83
Characterizing the Supply......Page 86
Can All the Identified Expertise Pairs Be Used?......Page 87
A Final Word on the Gap Analysis......Page 92
CHAPTER SEVEN  An Exploration of Future Requirements......Page 94
How We Derived Future Expertise Requirements......Page 95
Summary of Future Significant Impacts on Required Areas of Expertise......Page 96
Ship-Related Force Structure......Page 98
Information Warfare......Page 99
Space Warfare......Page 100
Intel and Foreign Area Officers......Page 101
Ballistic Missile Defense......Page 102
Special Warfare, Expeditionary Warfare, and Littoral Warfare......Page 103
Stability Operations......Page 104
Shifts in Advanced Education......Page 105
Shifts in Training: High-Tech Ships with Smaller Crews......Page 106
Operational Strategy Changes......Page 107
Technology Acquisitions......Page 110
Information Technology Acquisitions......Page 111
Submarine Warfare Acquisitions......Page 112
Surface Warfare Acquisitions......Page 115
Expeditionary Warfare Acquisitions......Page 116
Counter-Mine Warfare Acquisitions......Page 119
The Relevance of Current Expertise for the Future......Page 120
Potentially Uncaptured Areas of Expertise......Page 121
Conclusions......Page 124
Recommendations......Page 127
APPENDIX A  Flag Billet Titles......Page 130
APPENDIX B  Definitions of Domain Expertise......Page 144
APPENDIX C Cross-Functional Expertise......Page 150
APPENDIX D  Survey Screenshots and Additional DefinitionsUsed in the Survey......Page 154
APPENDIX E  Formulation of the Mathematical Program to Determine Average Flows of Inventory Through the Flag Officer Ranks......Page 166
References......Page 174