Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes

- List of Boxes
- List of Tables
- List of Figures
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
1. Basic Concepts and Measures
1.1. Meaning of “Population”
1.2 The Balancing Equation of Population Change
1.3. The Structure of Demographic Rates
1.4 Period Rates and Person-years
1.5. Principal Period Rates in Demography
1.6 Growth Rates in Demography
1.7. Estimating Period Person-years
1.8 The Concept of a Cohort
1.9 Probabilities of Occurrence of Events
2. Age-specific Rates and Probabilities
2.1 Period Age-specific Rates
2.2 Age-standardization
2.3 Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions
2.4 The Lexis Diagram
2.5 Age-specific Probabilities
2.6 Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year
3. The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes
3.1 Period Life Tables
3.2 Strategies for Choosing a Set of n_a_x Values and/or for Making the n_m_x->n_q_x Conversion
3.3 The Very Young Ages
3.4 The Open-ended Age Interval
3.5 Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction
3.6 Interpreting the Life Table
3.7 The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population
3.8 Mortality as a Continuous Process
3.9 Life Table Construction Revisited
3.10 Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies
3.11 Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes
- Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation
4. Multiple Decrement Processes
4.1 Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort
4.2 Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods
4.3 Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes
4.4 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data
4.5 Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies
4.6 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data
4.7 Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement
5. Fertility and Reproduction
5.1 Period Fertility Rates
5.2 Decomposition of Period Fertility
5.3 Cohort Fertility
5.4 Birth Interval Analysis
5.5 Reproduction Measures
6. Population Projection
6.1 Projections and Forecasts
6.2 Population Projection Methodology
6.3 The Cohort Component Method
6.4 Projections in Matrix Notation
6.5 Population Forecasts
6.6 The USBOC Projection of the US Population
6.7 Alternative Forecasting Methods
6.8 Accuracy and Uncertainty
6.9 Other Uses of Population Projections
7. The Stable Population Model
7.1 A Simplified Example of a Stable Population
7.2 Lotka's Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population
7.3 The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population
7.4 The “Stable Equivalent” Population
7.5 The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate
7.6 The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates
7.7 The Momentum of Population Growth
7.8 Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation
8 Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations
8.1 An Illustration
8.2 Relations in Continuous Age and Time
8.3. Extensions of the Basic Relations
8.4 Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate
8.5 Age Structural Dynamics
8.6 Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation
9 Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events
9.1 Model Age Patterns of Mortality
9.2 Age Patterns of Nuptiality
9.3. Age Patterns of Fertility
9.4 Model Age Patterns of Migration
10 Methods for Evaluating Data Quality
10.1 Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors
10.2 Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors
10.3. Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality
11. Indirect Estimation Methods 
11.1. Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method
11.2 Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood
11.3 The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality
11.4 Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories
11.5 Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distributions at Two Censuses
12 Increment—Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin) 
12.1. Introduction 
12.2. Increment-Decrement Life Tables 
12.3 Estimation of Increment—Decrement Life Tables 
12.4 Formalization and Generalization of Relations 
12.5 The Simplest Case: A Two-state System 
12.6 Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates 
12.7 Programs for the Calculation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables 
- References 
- Index 

Boxes:
1.1 The balancing equation of population change
1.2 Principal period rates in demography
1.3 Illustration of calculation of growth rates and person-years
2.1 Example of age-standardization
2.2 Decomposition of differences between rates
2.3 Calculating rates and probabilities
2.4 Conventional measures of fetal and early-infancy mortality
3.1 Period life table construction
3.2 Interpreting the life table
3.3 The life table conceived as a stationary population
3.4 Age decomposition of differences in life expectancies at birth
3.5 Application of life table construction to analysis of marital histories
4.1 Multiple decrement life table
4.2 Associated single decrement life table for causes of death other than neoplasms
4.3 Age and cause decomposition of difference in life expectancies at birth
4.4 Associated single decrement tables from current-status data: calculation of singulate mean age at marriage
5.1 Example of computation of age-specific fertility rates and total
5.2 fertility rate
5.2 Computation of Coale's fertility indexes I_m, I_f, I_g
5.3 Contraceptive failure rates using associated single decrement life tables
5.4 Calculation of parity progression ratios
5.5 Calculation of period gross and net reproduction rates
6.1 Cohort-component female-dominant projection in a population closed to migration
6.2 Cohort-component female-dominant projection with migration
7.1 Identification of the intrinsic growth rate
7.2 Construction of a stable-equivalent population
8.3  Estimation of population momentum
8.1 Estimation of marital survival using variable-r
8.2 Application of the death-based variable-r method for estimating mortality
8.3 Computation of the probability that a marriage will end in divorce
9.1 Fitting a Gompertz law of mortality to estimate survivors at older ages
9.2 Estimation of parameters of Brass relational model of mortality
9.3. Estimation of M and m
10.1. Brass method for estimating completeness of death registration
11.1. Estimation of child mortality from information on children ever born and children surviving (Brass method)
11.2 Estimation of adult mortality from information on orphanhood, Hill and Trussell variant
11.3. The sisterhood method for estimating maternal mortality
11.4 Estimation of intercensal mortality by using projection and cumulation