Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set, Volume 1-4: A Treatise in Population

front cover......Page 1
Copyright Volume I......Page 5
Contents Volume I......Page 8
Contributors Volume I......Page 22
SECTION I POPULATION DYNAMICS Introduction to Volume I......Page 38
Volume I......Page 2
Contents of Volumes II, III and IV......Page 16
General Introduction......Page 26
PART I POPULATION GROWTH......Page 40
I. Number and Composition......Page 42
II. Size, Composition, and Dynamics: State and Change......Page 43
I. Exogenous Replacement: Entries and Exits by Migration......Page 46
II. Endogenous Replacement: Births, Deaths......Page 49
I. Total Population Increase......Page 52
II. Natural and Migratory Increase......Page 55
CHAPTER 4 Population Dynamics: Movement and Structure......Page 60
I. The Age-Sex Structure......Page 61
II. Crude Rates and Age-Specific Rates......Page 74
III. The Relationship between Age-specific Rates, Age Structure, and Population Growth......Page 80
PART II THE LONGITUDINAL APPROACH  Description of Demographic Processes in a Birth Cohort......Page 86
CHAPTER 5 Variation Through Time of Age-Specific Rates......Page 88
I. Time, Age, Cohort......Page 92
II. The Lexis Diagram......Page 94
III. Elements for Computing a Rate, According to the Classification Mode of Events......Page 98
I. Attempts at Three-Dimensional Representation......Page 106
II. Contour Lines......Page 108
I. Types of Events and Population States......Page 116
II. Repeatable Events: Rates and Frequencies......Page 118
III. Nonrepeatable Events, Probabilities, and Occurrence/Exposure Rates......Page 119
IV. Single and Multiple Decrement......Page 123
V. The Force of Attrition......Page 124
I. The Condition of Independence......Page 126
II. The Condition of Continuity......Page 128
I. Individual and Cohort Data......Page 130
II. The Longitudinal Approach: Descriptive Measures......Page 133
I. Calculating a Cohort’s Probabilities of Dying......Page 140
II. Construction and Main Functions of the Table......Page 149
III. From the Discrete to the Continuous: Entering the Table Via the Force of Mortality......Page 154
IV. The Oldest-Ages Problem and Table Closure......Page 156
V. The Special Case of Infant Mortality......Page 162
I. Analyzing Cohort Fertility from Retrospective Data......Page 168
II. Cohort Fertility from Vital Registration Data......Page 176
III. Fertility by Marriage Cohorts......Page 179
IV. Fertility by Parity Cohorts......Page 180
V. Fertility by Age, Marriage Duration, and Birth Interval......Page 182
CHAPTER 13 Cohort Approach to External Migration Flows......Page 186
I. The Data Constraint......Page 187
II. Age-Specific Inflow and Outflow Rate......Page 188
III. Estimating Net Migration: A Robust Approach Despite Its Limits......Page 190
PART III PERIOD ANALYSIS REVISITED The Hypothetical Cohort and its Relations with Actual Birth Cohorts......Page 198
I. The Period Life Table......Page 200
II. Hypothetical Intensity and Tempo of Fertility......Page 208
III. External Migrations......Page 223
I. Confounding Variables......Page 234
II. Interaction Between Causes......Page 236
III. Standardization and the Problem of Summary Indices......Page 237
I. How Differences in Age-Specific Mortality Affect a Difference in Life Expectancy......Page 246
II. Tempo Effect and Intensity Effect on the Difference Between Two TFRs......Page 249
I. The Need for Both Cohort and Period Analysis......Page 252
II. Early Expressions by Ryder for the Case of Age-Specific Fertility......Page 253
III. Expressions for Nonrepeatable Events......Page 255
IV. The Bongaarts/Feeney Method for Tempo Adjustment of Period Fertility......Page 256
V. Numerical Illustrations......Page 257
CHAPTER 18 Age-Period-Cohort Models in Demography......Page 264
I. Theoretical Motivation......Page 265
II. Age-Period-Cohort Models......Page 266
PART IV A TENTATIVE SYNTHESIS OF THE COMPONENTS OF DYNAMICS From Reproduction to Population Models......Page 274
I. Female Reproduction......Page 276
II. Male Reproduction and the Sex-Reconciliation Issue......Page 282
I. Lotka’s Theory......Page 286
II. Moving Towards a Stable State Via the Projection Matrix......Page 289
III. A Special Case: The Stationary Population......Page 291
IV. Some Applications of the Stable Population Model......Page 292
V. The Problem of the Two Sexes......Page 296
VI. From Semistable and Quasi-Stable Populations to Generalized Stable Equations......Page 298
PART V FROM HOMOGENEITY TO HETEROGENEITY New Ways Forward for Demographic Analysis......Page 306
II. Compositional Change......Page 308
IV. Frailty Models......Page 309
VI. Methods of Parameter Estimation......Page 313
I. Concepts of Mobility......Page 316
III. Migratory Moves, Registers, and Surveys......Page 318
IV. Mobility Over Time......Page 320
V. Mobility, Space, and Spatial Models......Page 324
VI. Multistate Models......Page 326
I. From Longitudinal Analysis to Event History Analysis......Page 330
II. Statistical Formalization......Page 332
III. Applications of These Methods in Various Research Fields......Page 334
IV. Future Developments......Page 336
I. Individual and Aggregate Measures: Contextual Analysis......Page 340
II. Introducing Group Effects: Multilevel Models......Page 342
III. Generalization of the Analysis......Page 348
SECTION II DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY Introduction......Page 350
PART I A PRECONDITION OF FERTILITY Union Formation......Page 352
CHAPTER 25 Analysis of Couple Formation and Dissolution......Page 354
I. Principles of Cohort Analysis......Page 355
II. The Nuptiality Table......Page 356
III. Proxy Measures of the Nuptiality Table......Page 357
IV. Period Measures......Page 358
V. Divorce Table......Page 360
VI. Widowhood Table......Page 361
VIII. Unions and Marriage......Page 362
IX. Nuptiality and Fertility......Page 364
X. Male and Female Nuptiality......Page 367
I. Complexity of Marital Statuses: From Consensual Unions to Polygamy......Page 376
II. Nuptiality Analysis and Event-History Analysis......Page 379
III. First Marriage, Divorce, and Polygamy in Dakar......Page 384
I. Nuptiality in Africa: Diversity and Change......Page 392
II. Does Polygamy Still Matter?......Page 396
I. Nuptiality, Alliance, and Reproduction......Page 410
II. Age of Access to Sex and Age at Marriage......Page 415
III. Couple Formation and the Choice of Partner: From Social Control to Personal Decision......Page 421
IV. Life and Death of Unions......Page 425
CHAPTER 29 Marital and Nonmarital Fertility......Page 434
I. The Ancien Regime......Page 435
II. Demographic Transition......Page 436
III. Foundations of Marital-Fertility Analysis......Page 437
IV. Posttransition Societies......Page 439
V. New Family Structures and the Measurement of Fertility: The Problem of Heterogeneity......Page 440
VII. Fertility Outside Marriage and Adolescent Female Fertility......Page 444
PART II BIOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL FACTORS OF FERTILITY AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUALS AND COUPLES......Page 448
I. Fertility and Fecundity: The Vocabulary......Page 450
II. From One Birth to the Next: The Components of Birth Intervals......Page 454
IV. Fecundability......Page 455
V. Duration of Pregnancy......Page 457
VI. The Postpartum Nonsusceptible Period......Page 458
I. Ages at Menarche and at Menopause......Page 460
II. Fecundability......Page 461
IV. Breastfeeding......Page 462
V. Contraception......Page 465
CHAPTER 32 Fetal Mortality......Page 472
I. Fetal Mortality Levels......Page 473
II. Influence of Data Collection Methods......Page 475
III. Intrauterine Mortality Rates by Gestation Duration......Page 476
IV. The Determinants of Fetal Mortality......Page 478
V. Health-Care Provision and Fetal Mortality......Page 483
VI. Induced Abortion and Fetal Death......Page 487
I. From Infertility to Sterility......Page 494
II. Sterility and Age......Page 495
III. The Causes of Sterility......Page 497
IV. Measuring Treatment Effectiveness......Page 498
VI. Estimating the Demand for Treatment......Page 499
VII. The Demand for Treatment: Stocks and Flows......Page 501
I. The “Intermediate Variables”......Page 504
II. Results: Levels of Fertility......Page 511
I. Abortion During the Demographic Transition......Page 516
I. Demography’s Difficult Inclusion of Sexuality......Page 528
II. Demographic Observation of Sexuality: Concepts, Indicators, Limitations......Page 530
III. Sexuality and the Transformation of Conjugal Trajectories......Page 532
IV. Gender Relations and Sexuality......Page 533
V. Cross-Cultural Comparison of Sexual Behavior: The Contribution of Demography......Page 535
PART III SOCIOECONOMIC AND CULTURAL FACTORS OF FERTILITY......Page 540
I. Supply and Demand: A Framework of Factors Influencing Fertility......Page 542
II. Economic Explanations of Fertility Behavior......Page 545
III. A Sociological View......Page 549
IV. Questions About Fertility and Society......Page 551
CHAPTER 38 The Geography of Fertility: Maps, Narratives and Demographic Innovation......Page 566
I. A Narrative of the Historical French Fertility Decline......Page 567
II. The Narrative of Belgian Demographic Innovation......Page 575
III. Other Narratives: An Invitation for New Research......Page 580
IV. Narratives and Theories of Demographic Innovation......Page 581
CHAPTER 39 Fertility: Theories, Frameworks, Models, Concepts......Page 586
I. The Structure and Development of Fertility Theory......Page 587
index......Page 608
Volume II......Page 693
Copyright Volume II......Page 696
Contents Volume II......Page 697
Contents of Volumes I, III and IV......Page 703
Contributors Volume II......Page 709
SECTION I DETERMINANTS OF MORTALITY Introduction......Page 713
PART I HEALTH, MORBIDITY AND CAUSES OF DEATH......Page 715
I. Health......Page 717
II. Sickness......Page 719
III. Death......Page 722
CHAPTER 41 Measuring the State of Health......Page 725
I. How to Measure Health Status......Page 726
II. The Medical Model: Measuring Morbidity......Page 727
III. The Functional Model: The Measure of Disability......Page 730
IV. The Subjective Model: Perceived Health and Quality of Life......Page 735
I. Collecting, Classifying, and Coding......Page 741
II. Analytical Instruments......Page 748
I. Background......Page 757
II. The Verbal Autopsy Method......Page 758
III. Uses of the Verbal Autopsy......Page 760
IV. Problems and Limitations of the Verbal Autopsy......Page 761
V. Other Techniques......Page 764
II. Independence or Dependence Among Causes of Death......Page 769
I. Definitions......Page 773
II. Measures of Maternal Mortality......Page 775
III. Means of Estimating Maternal Mortality......Page 776
IV. Levels of Maternal Mortality......Page 778
I. Determinants of Which Infant Mortality?......Page 783
II. A Complex Phenomenon to be Analyzed at Different Levels......Page 785
III. Causes, Determinants, and Differential Risk......Page 787
IV. From Mortality to Health: A Question Of Weight, Height, and Gestational Age......Page 789
II. Monitoring Morbidity......Page 793
III. Morbidity Processes and Causes of Death......Page 794
IV. Relationships that Link Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality in a Cohort......Page 796
PART II ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS MORTALITY......Page 805
CHAPTER 48 From Endogenous Mortality to the Maximum Human Life Span......Page 807
I. Gompertz’s Law: A Measurement for Biological Aging......Page 808
II. Jean Bourgeois-Pichat: Search for the “Hard Rock”......Page 809
III. Is There a Limit?......Page 814
IV. Does Gompertz’s Law Apply to the Oldest Ages?......Page 822
I. Methods and Problems in Human Genetics......Page 829
II. Genetic Diseases......Page 830
III. Theories on Aging and the Lifespan......Page 834
IV. Sex......Page 835
V. Biometric Models......Page 836
VI. Perspectives......Page 837
CHAPTER 50 The Environmental Factors of Mortality......Page 841
I. Physical Factors......Page 842
II. Chemical Factors......Page 845
III. Infectious Diseases Linked to the Environment......Page 850
I. Behavior that Influences Health and Mortality......Page 855
II. Sociocultural Factors and Attitudes Regarding the Body and Health......Page 863
CHAPTER 52 The Medical Response: Medical Technologies and Public Expectations......Page 883
I. Medical Technology’s Contribution to Mortality Decline......Page 884
III. Bridging Natural Science and Anthropology......Page 885
PART III THE INTRICACY OF DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY FACTORS......Page 887
I. A Plausible Natural Advantage......Page 889
II. Advantage that is Reduced or Inversed by an Unfavorable Social Status......Page 892
III. From Regaining the Original Advantage to Obtaining a New Privilege......Page 894
IV. From the Negative Effects of Male Behavior to the Positive Effects of Female Behavior......Page 897
V. When Geography Contradicts History but Confirms the Previous Hypothesis......Page 901
I. National Studies on Social Mortality Differences and Methods Used......Page 907
II. Mortality Differences by Age......Page 911
IV. Why are the Social Differences in Mortality Less Among Women than Among Men?......Page 912
V. Explanations of Social Inequalities in Mortality......Page 913
VI. International Comparisons......Page 914
VII. Trends in Social Mortality Differences......Page 915
I. A Great Diversity of Situations......Page 919
II. Components of Geographic Inequality in Matters of Mortality......Page 928
III. Permanence and Change......Page 932
IV. The Factors Behind Geographic  Inequalities......Page 938
PART IV THEORIES AND FRAMEWORKS OF MORTALITY......Page 947
CHAPTER 56 Theories and Frameworks for the Study of Child Mortality......Page 949
I. From Hypotheses to Theories......Page 950
II. Frameworks for Child Mortality......Page 951
CHAPTER 57 The Health Transition: Trends and Prospects......Page 959
I. From the Epidemiologic Transition to the Cardiovascular Revolution......Page 960
II. The Health Transition and Future Prospects......Page 967
SECTION II THE DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION Introduction......Page 973
PART I MAJOR MIGRATION STREAMS AND THEORIES OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION......Page 977
CHAPTER 58 International Migration in the 20th Century: The Case of the Western Countries......Page 979
I. The Great Migration at the Turn of the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries......Page 981
II. The New Migrants: Between Regulation and Prohibition......Page 983
III. Forced Migrations from the End of the First World War to the 1950s......Page 985
IV. The Globalization Process and International Migration......Page 987
V. The Acceleration of Migratory Movements in Europe and North America......Page 989
VI. Immigrants in European Countries at the End of the Twentieth Century......Page 990
VII. Recent Immigration to Canada and the United States......Page 998
VIII. Integration: The End of the Journey......Page 1001
I. The Economic Approach......Page 1005
III. The Mobility Transition......Page 1010
IV. The Contribution of Political Science......Page 1012
V. The Systems Approach......Page 1013
VI. Comparison of Existing Theories of Migration......Page 1014
PART II THE PRINCIPAL FACTORS OF MIGRATION......Page 1019
I. Migration as an Equilibrium Process......Page 1021
II. In Search of a General Theoretical Framework......Page 1024
III. Methodological Implications......Page 1028
I. Cities and Urbanization......Page 1031
II. Defining the Limits of Urban Entities......Page 1033
III. The Urban Transition......Page 1035
IV. The Dynamics of Settlement Systems......Page 1037
V. Migrations and Urbanization......Page 1040
I. The Roots......Page 1045
II. The International System for Managing Refugee Migration......Page 1046
III. Growth in the Number of Refugees in the World......Page 1047
IV. Data Quality......Page 1048
VI. The Destination of the Flow of Refugees......Page 1049
VII. Asylum Seekers......Page 1050
VIII. Asylum Policy......Page 1051
X. Informal Asylum......Page 1053
XI. Trends......Page 1054
CHAPTER 63 Individual and Social Motivations for Migration......Page 1057
I. The Complexity of Migration Behavior......Page 1058
II. Toward a Broader Understanding of Migration Behavior......Page 1065
PART III SPECIFIC APPROACHES TO TWO TYPES OF MIGRATION......Page 1071
I. Spatial Interactions and Level of Analysis......Page 1073
II. Macro Approaches......Page 1074
III. Micro Approaches......Page 1080
IV. The Challenges Facing a Unified Approach......Page 1081
I. Census Data......Page 1085
II. Survey Data......Page 1087
III. Population Registers......Page 1090
Index Volume II......Page 1093
Volume III......Page 1178
Copyright Volume III......Page 1181
Contents Volume III......Page 1182
Contents of Volumes I, II and IV......Page 1190
Contributors Volume III......Page 1196
SECTION I POPULATION IN TIME AND SPACE: HISTORY OF POPULATION AND POPULATION FORECASTS Introduction to Volume III......Page 1200
PART I THE HISTORY OF THE HUMAN POPULATION......Page 1202
I. The First Human Populations......Page 1204
II. The Prehistoric Population and Methods of Measurement......Page 1205
III. Estimates of Prehistoric Populations......Page 1208
IV. From Antiquity to Modern Times......Page 1211
I. The Status of Migration in Demography......Page 1218
II. Types of Migration Ancient and Modern......Page 1220
III. The Initial Colonizations of the World: Out of Africa......Page 1222
IV. Population Growth Rates, Colonization, and the “Wave of Advance”......Page 1224
V. Prehistoric Migration of People or Migration of Cultures?......Page 1225
VI. The Effect of Migration On Demographic Regimes......Page 1226
VII. Migration, Warfare, and Organized States......Page 1227
VIII. The Demographic Consequences of the “Migration Period”......Page 1232
IX. European Expansion and its Consequences......Page 1234
X. The Rise of “Modern” Forms of Migration......Page 1235
CHAPTER 68 Europe’s Demographic Transition, 1740–1940......Page 1240
I. An Unprecedented Mortality Decline......Page 1242
II. A Steep Fall in Fertility......Page 1248
III. Structural Consequences: Population Aging and Migrations......Page 1258
IV. Birth of a Theory......Page 1263
CHAPTER 69 From the Globalization of the Transition to the Return of Uncertainty (1940–2000)......Page 1266
I. The Third World Population Explosion and the Generalization of the Demographic Transition......Page 1267
II. Increasing Uncertainty and the Death of the Transition Paradigm......Page 1288
PART II THE GEOGRAPHY OF POPULATION, DIVERSITY OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS......Page 1298
CHAPTER 70 Distribution of the World Population......Page 1300
I. Different Aspects of Settlement......Page 1301
II. Analytical Tools......Page 1302
III. The Settlement Envelope......Page 1304
IV. The Frontiers of the Oikoumene......Page 1307
V. Inhabited Spaces......Page 1309
VI. History of Spatial Distribution......Page 1311
VII. Toward an Interpretation......Page 1316
I. Sources, Indicators, and Geographic Divisions......Page 1322
II. The Transition Patterns from 1950–2010......Page 1323
III. Fertility: Decline Is Widespread, Though at Unequal Paces......Page 1327
IV. Mortality: Improvements but Growing Inequalities......Page 1330
V. From National Averages to Social or Regional Inequalities in the Countries of the South......Page 1334
VI. Age Structures and Demographic Aging......Page 1336
VII. AIDS and its Demographic Consequences......Page 1338
PART III THE FUTURE OF POPULATIONS: DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE......Page 1346
CHAPTER 72 Demographic Projections: History of Methods and Current Methodology......Page 1348
II. Population Projection as Forecasting: The Component Method......Page 1349
IV. Contemporary Methods......Page 1352
I. Derived Forecasts......Page 1360
II. The Flow Method......Page 1362
I. Approaches and Methods of Forecasting Fertility......Page 1366
II. Foreseeability of Fertility and Critical Analysis of the Methods......Page 1369
III. Prospective......Page 1371
I. From Simple to More Complex Models......Page 1376
II. Target Forecasts......Page 1379
III. Different Methods Compared......Page 1380
IV. Hypotheses for Medium and Long-Term Forecasts......Page 1382
CHAPTER 76 Hypotheses for Migration Projections......Page 1388
I. Internal Migration Forecasts......Page 1389
II. International Migration Forecasts......Page 1391
CHAPTER 77 The United Nations’ World Population Projections......Page 1396
I. Between 8 and 11 Billion in 2050?......Page 1397
II. Data Improvement, Technique Refinement, and Evolution of the Hypotheses......Page 1409
III. Do Alternative Approaches Exist?......Page 1415
IV. From Medium to Long Term......Page 1418
V. Projections by Age and Sex and Derived Projections......Page 1423
CHAPTER 78 The Future of Mankind: Looking Ahead After the Transition......Page 1434
I. The Baseline: World Population in 2050......Page 1435
II. From Generation Replacement to the One Child World......Page 1436
III. Life Expectancy: 85 or 150 Years?......Page 1441
IV. The Effects of a Radical Change in Sex Ratio at Birth......Page 1446
SECTION II POPULATION AND SOCIETY Introduction......Page 1458
PART I CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE......Page 1460
I. Demographic and Population Genetic Interrelations in General......Page 1462
II. The Effects of the Modern Demographic Transition on Genetic Diversity......Page 1469
I. Expansion or Compression of Morbidity?......Page 1484
II. Defining and Calculating Health State Expectancies......Page 1486
III. Trends and Differentials in Health State Expectancies......Page 1491
IV. What Conditions Cconstitute the Years Lived in Bad Health or with Disability?......Page 1496
CHAPTER 81 Demographic Trends and Relationships between Generations......Page 1504
I. Seeing the Generations......Page 1505
II. The Coexistence of Generations in the Family......Page 1506
III. Family Inheritance and Relationships between Generations......Page 1513
IV. Transfers Within the Population......Page 1519
V. Social, Professional, and Psychological Distance between Generations......Page 1522
VI. A New Social Contract between Generations......Page 1523
CHAPTER 82 Economic, Social, and Cultural Consequences of the Aging of the Population......Page 1526
I. Demographic Context of Aging Societies......Page 1527
II. Some Economic Consequences of Demographic Aging......Page 1529
III. Some Social Consequences of Demographic Aging......Page 1531
IV. Some Cultural Consequences of Demographic Aging......Page 1533
CHAPTER 83 The Economic Consequences of Migration......Page 1536
I. Is Migration Selective?......Page 1537
II. Does Migration Influence Salaries and Employment?......Page 1539
III. Migration and Growth......Page 1544
CHAPTER 84 Immigration and Integration in the Developed Countries: A Conceptual Framework......Page 1548
I. Defining and Measuring Integration......Page 1549
II. Conceptual Framework for Studying the Factors of Integration......Page 1550
III. Influence of the World Context......Page 1551
IV. Contextual Factors in the Countries of Origin and Destination......Page 1552
V. Micro-individual Factors......Page 1553
I. Popular Wisdom and Scientific Uncertainty......Page 1560
II. Some Definitions......Page 1562
III. Empirical Study......Page 1563
IV. The Growth Theory Perspective......Page 1564
V. Demographic Structure and Productivity......Page 1567
VI. Back to Sociology......Page 1568
CHAPTER 86 Population and Development......Page 1572
I. The Global Analyses of the Period 1950–1960......Page 1573
II. Disaggregate Analyses and Structural Studies......Page 1574
III. Micro Analyses......Page 1576
IV. The Internationalization of Relations between Population and Development......Page 1578
CHAPTER 87 The Relationships between Population and Environment......Page 1582
I. A Review of the Works on Population and Environment......Page 1584
II. Why Are Demographers so Little Interested in Environmental Questions?......Page 1587
PART II THE POPULATION IN ITS BIOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND CULTURAL SETTING......Page 1596
CHAPTER 88 From the Life Cycle to Life Paths and to Life Transitions......Page 1598
I. Demographic Regime and Structural Evolution of the Ages of Life......Page 1599
II. Consequences of Changes of the Life Paths and Policy Implications......Page 1606
III. Observation and Analysis of the Life Paths (Towards an Integrated Approach)......Page 1607
IV. Dynamic Information on Biographical States and Life Transitions......Page 1611
V. Relationships between Trajectories and Dependent Variables, Multi-state Transition Tables and Hazard Models......Page 1613
CHAPTER 89 Experiencing Death: A Demographic Approach......Page 1618
I. The Dying: Age and Sex, Cause and Place......Page 1619
II. Death as Experienced by the Dying Person’s Family......Page 1623
I. Household and Family Demography......Page 1634
II. Households and Families in Developing Countries: State of the Art......Page 1640
CHAPTER 91 Households and Families: Developed Countries......Page 1656
I. Definitions and Concepts......Page 1657
II. Measurement of Family and Household Developments......Page 1661
III. Data Sources......Page 1664
IV. Main Trends in Family and Household Developments in Western Europe After World War II......Page 1667
I. Growth of Social-Mobility Studies: Quality of Historical Research......Page 1676
III. France-England: The Dual Origin of the Social-mobility Table......Page 1677
IV. Benini’s Two Indices......Page 1678
VI. Social Mobility and Differential Fertility......Page 1679
VIII. 1953: INSEE Takes Up the Baton and Keeps It......Page 1681
IX. Bourdieu’s Critique and Boudon’s Work......Page 1682
X. Sociology/Demography: Ideological or Institutional Divide?......Page 1683
XI. The “Constant Flow”: Goldthorpe......Page 1685
XII. A Possible Convergence: Differential Mobility and Differential Diffusion......Page 1686
I. Some Definitions......Page 1694
II. From Women’s Studies to Gender Studies in Demography......Page 1695
III. Gender and Family......Page 1696
IV. Gender, Fertility, and Contraception......Page 1697
V. Gender, Health, and Mortality......Page 1698
VI. Gender and Migration......Page 1700
VIII. Data and Methods for the Study of the Gender-Demographic Behavior Relationship......Page 1701
CHAPTER 94 Economic Activity and Demographic Behaviors......Page 1712
I. Importance of Economic Activity in the Study of Demographic Behaviors......Page 1713
II. The Labor Force: Principal Sources of Data and Some Analytical Instruments......Page 1718
III. Economic Activity and Geographic Mobility......Page 1722
CHAPTER 95 Demography and Ethnicity: An Ambiguous Relationship......Page 1730
I. Why Demographers are Interested in Ethnicity......Page 1731
II. Official Categories and their Political Utilization: A Great Diversity......Page 1732
III. Statistics of Origins: United States, Canada, and Great Britain......Page 1735
IV. The Very Difficult Use of Ethnic Data or the Bias of Ethnic Statistics......Page 1740
I. The Structure of a Population’s Gene Pool......Page 1750
II. Models of Population Genetics......Page 1751
III. Mechanisms of Variation of Genetic Structure......Page 1752
IV. Analyses and Applications......Page 1755
V. Biodemographic Research......Page 1759
VI. The Analysis of Surnames......Page 1760
Index Volume III......Page 1772
Volume IV......Page 1857
Copyright Volume IV......Page 1860
Contents Volume IV......Page 1861
Contents of Volumes I, II and III......Page 1871
Contributors Volume IV......Page 1877
SECTION I HISTORY OF POPULATION THOUGHT AND POLICIES Introduction to Volume IV......Page 1881
PART I HISTORY OF POPULATION THOUGHT AND SHORT INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION POLICIES......Page 1883
CHAPTER 97 History of Population Thought......Page 1885
I. Some of the Earliest Known Population Theories......Page 1886
II. The Demographic Dictates of Some Major Religions......Page 1890
III. The Middle Ages and the Renaissance......Page 1891
IV. Mercantilists and Physiocrats......Page 1892
VI. Thomas Robert Malthus......Page 1895
VII. The 19th Century—Pro or Anti Malthus......Page 1898
IX. Optimum Population......Page 1901
X. Demographic Transition......Page 1902
XI. Major Contemporary Debates......Page 1903
CHAPTER 98 History of Ideas in Population since 1940......Page 1907
I. Landmarks of Population Thought since 1940: An Overview and a Literature Guide......Page 1908
II. The Global Population Problem......Page 1913
III. The Problem of Below-Replacement Fertility......Page 1915
CHAPTER 99 Ethics and Demography: or Macrodemus Macrodemus and Microdemus in the Country of Ethicists......Page 1919
I. First Exploration of the Ethicists’ Island......Page 1920
III. When Macrodemus Fancied that Demography Could Make a Mockery of Ethics......Page 1924
IV. When Macrodemus Imagined that Demography was Already Ethics in Itself......Page 1926
V. Universal, Impartial, and Neutral?......Page 1928
VI. The Limits of the Ethical Content of Macrodemography: The Ethicists’ Response......Page 1930
VII. Dialogue between Macrodemus and Microdemus on Changes in Demographic Survey Methods......Page 1934
VIII. Research Ethics: An Epidemiological Model Ill-suited to Demography......Page 1938
IX. Strengths and Weaknesses of Ethics Codes......Page 1943
CHAPTER 100 History of Population Policies up to 1940......Page 1951
I. Origins: From the Ancient World to Malthus and Marx......Page 1952
II. From the 19th to the 20th Century......Page 1954
CHAPTER 101 An Introduction to Population Policies......Page 1963
I. Definitions, Objectives, and Components of Population Policies......Page 1964
II. The Relationship between Population Policies and Population Theories......Page 1965
III. The Role of International Organizations and Aid in Promoting Population Policies......Page 1968
PART II FROM FERTILITY CONTROL TO FERTILITY SUPPORT......Page 1973
CHAPTER 102 Fertility Control in Third World Countries......Page 1975
I. Since 1950 Fertility Has Decreased by Half in Third World Countries......Page 1976
II. The Elaboration of Fertility Control Policies......Page 1978
III. Policies for Fertility Control. Which Methods?......Page 1984
IV. Forty Years of Progress in Contraception......Page 1991
I. Singapore......Page 2009
II. South Korea......Page 2012
III. Other Low Fertility Countries......Page 2014
CHAPTER 104 Pronatalist Policy in Industrialized Nations......Page 2017
I. Pronatalist Policy, Social Policy......Page 2019
II. A Possible Classification of Pronatalist Policies......Page 2021
I. The Difficulty of Linking Causes and Effects in Social Science......Page 2027
II. The Rise in French Fertility After the Second World War......Page 2030
IV. The Fertility Trend in the Former GDR and the Former FRG......Page 2032
V. The Fertility Trend in Northwestern Europe......Page 2033
PART III THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT......Page 2035
I. Antiquity, Medicine, and Religion: From Imhotep to Galen......Page 2039
II. Middle Ages and Renaissance: From Avicenna to Ambroise Paré......Page 2042
III. The 17th and 18th Centuries: Containment of Mass Epidemics and Decline of Famine......Page 2043
IV. 19th Century: Hospitals for the Sick and Hygiene for All......Page 2045
V. 1880–1945: From Pasteur to the Welfare State......Page 2047
I. Objectives and Strategies......Page 2053
II. Actors and Resources......Page 2071
CHAPTER 108 Health Policies: Can the Results Be Evaluated?......Page 2091
I. Global Results: Health Policies and Increased Life Expectancy?......Page 2092
II. Reaching Targets in Pathological Terms......Page 2099
III. Fulfilling Objectives Targeted in Terms of Groups......Page 2112
CHAPTER 109 Information Systems for Health Policies......Page 2129
I. Creating Information Systems for Health Policies......Page 2130
II. Identifying the Objectives of Health Policy......Page 2131
IV. Defining a Conceptual Framework......Page 2132
VI. Creating Systems of Indicators Representative of a Complex Reality......Page 2133
VII. Ensuring Comparability through Harmonization......Page 2135
VIII. Some Examples of Information Systems......Page 2136
PART IV MIGRATION POLICIES AND MANAGEMENT OF THE POPULATION PYRAMID......Page 2141
I. The Policies of the Receiving Countries......Page 2143
II. The Policies in the Countries of Emigration......Page 2151
III. New Elements in Migration Policies......Page 2155
I. Population Policies or Management of Population Structures?......Page 2161
II. Demographic Structures Change Because Everything Changes, and Vice Versa......Page 2162
III. To Act on the Age and Sex Composition Despite the Inertia and Resistance?......Page 2163
IV. Age Policy: Watch Out for Unexpected Effects!......Page 2164
V. The Baby Boom: Good Luck or Bad Luck of History?......Page 2166
VI. A Population Isn’t a Business......Page 2167
VII. Good or Bad Structures: Some Propositions......Page 2168
IX. The Financing of Social Security: A False Debate?......Page 2169
X. Intergenerational Equity: A Clever Diversion for Other Less Avowable Ends?......Page 2170
XI. A More Positive Approach: Solidarity of the Ages of Life......Page 2171
XII. Declining Birth Rates and Pension Insolvency: AVicious Circle?......Page 2172
XIII. The Ultimate Question: Renegotiate a New Intergenerational Contract......Page 2176
PART V COUNTRY CASE STUDIES......Page 2179
I. Household Registration and Mobility Control......Page 2181
II. Balancing Regional Development and Strengthening Border Regions......Page 2185
III. Health Policies......Page 2187
IV. Controlling Fertility......Page 2190
V. Toward Reproductive-Health Policies......Page 2195
I. Indian Population Policy: Stakes and Directions......Page 2201
II. Fertility, Family Planning and Development in India: National and State Levels......Page 2205
III. Fifty Years of Birth Control in India......Page 2209
IV. The Other Components of Population Policy......Page 2211
I. Genesis and Implementation of a Malthusian Population Policy in Mexico......Page 2215
II. The Population Policy in Mexico after 1994......Page 2224
I. Colonial Upheavals......Page 2229
II. Transition and Independence......Page 2233
III. A Difficult End to the Century......Page 2235
I. The Main Demographic Trends since 1950......Page 2247
II. A Declaredly Pronatalist Policy up to 1991......Page 2253
III. A Shift in Population Policies from 1991......Page 2259
IV. The Constitution of the Reproductive Health Supply and the Evolution of Family Planning......Page 2264
CHAPTER 117 Population Policy in the United States......Page 2275
I. Immigration......Page 2277
II. Current Immigration Law......Page 2278
V. Nonimmigrants......Page 2279
VI. Fertility......Page 2280
VII. Distribution......Page 2283
VIII. Mortality......Page 2284
CHAPTER 118 Population Policy in Russia......Page 2287
I. Family Policy......Page 2288
II. Health Policy......Page 2294
III. Migration Policy......Page 2303
CHAPTER 119 Population Policy in France, 1896–2003......Page 2315
I. The Policy of Encouraging Fertility......Page 2316
II. Public Health Policy......Page 2325
III. National and Regional Development......Page 2328
IV. Immigration Policy......Page 2330
CHAPTER 120 World Population Growth and the International Community from 1950 to the Present Day......Page 2337
I. 1946–1965: Creation of the Population Movement in the United States......Page 2338
II. 1966–1973: the United Nations’ Growing Influence......Page 2342
III. 1974–1983 Bucharest: The Voice of the Third World......Page 2345
IV. 1984–1993 Mexico: The U.S. and the Third World at Odds......Page 2348
V. From 1994 to the Present Day: Cairo, an Anglo-Saxon Victory......Page 2351
VI. The Future of Global Population Policy......Page 2359
SECTION II OBSERVATION, AUXILIARY METHODS, TEACHING AND RESEARCH Introduction......Page 2367
PART I OBSERVATION SYSTEMS AND INDIRECT ESTIMATION METHODS......Page 2369
I. FROM OBSERVATION TO ANALYSIS......Page 2373
II. History and Role of Observation in Demography......Page 2374
III. A Typology of Demographic Observation Systems......Page 2376
IV. Continuous Registration Systems......Page 2377
V. Censuses......Page 2382
VI. Sample Surveys......Page 2387
VII. Extra Tools: Aerial Photography and Remote Sensing......Page 2394
IX. A Few Words on Qualitative Approaches......Page 2396
X. Privacy and Data Collection......Page 2397
CHAPTER 122 Internal Migration: Observation and Concepts......Page 2403
I. Diversity in Approaches and Concepts......Page 2404
II. Multiple but Defective Sources......Page 2409
CHAPTER 123 Conceptual Framework and Data Collection in International Migration......Page 2417
I. The Overall Framework......Page 2418
II. Identification Criteria for the Different Components of Migration......Page 2421
III. A Critical Analysis of the Major Data Collection Systems......Page 2424
I. A Growing Number of Demographic Surveillance Sites in Developing Countries......Page 2435
II. The Demographic and Health Surveillance Sites at Bandafassi and Mlomp, Senegal......Page 2440
I. AGE AND DIVERSITY OF THE PRACTICE......Page 2451
II. The Conditions for Comparison: Data Comparability......Page 2452
III. Methods of Comparison......Page 2464
II. Data Assessment and Checking: The Cornerstone of Research in Historical Demography......Page 2477
III. Micro and Macro in Historical Demography: Antithetical or Complementary Approaches?......Page 2479
IV. Issues and New Directions in the Analysis of Individual Data......Page 2481
V. Data Series and Model-based Reconstitutions......Page 2483
VI. Statistical Methodology and Historical Demography......Page 2487
CHAPTER 127 Indirect Estimation Methods......Page 2499
II. Estimation Methods for Fertility......Page 2500
III. Estimation Methods for Child Mortality......Page 2503
IV. Estimation Methods for Adult Mortality......Page 2506
V. Estimation Methods for Migration......Page 2509
I. Model Life Tables Based on Regression Methods and on Data from Developed Countries......Page 2513
II. The Logit System......Page 2515
III. Model Tables Based on Regression Methods and Data from Developing Countries......Page 2517
IV. Applying Model Tables to Data from Developing Nations......Page 2519
PART II STATISTICAL ANALYSES, SPECIFIC TOOLS AND QUALITATIVE APPROACHES......Page 2525
I. Theorization......Page 2527
II. Main Theory......Page 2530
III. Auxiliary theory......Page 2536
CHAPTER 130 Causality and Causal Models......Page 2541
I. Cause and Effect in Social Science......Page 2542
II. Causality and Statistical Modelling......Page 2545
I. Exploratory Data Analysis......Page 2551
II. Methods for Multidimensional Analysis......Page 2558
III. Methods of Classification......Page 2562
I. Model Construction......Page 2567
II. Why Regression?......Page 2569
III. Types of Regression......Page 2572
I. Why do Demographers Need to Bridge the Gap?......Page 2575
II. Formal Demography and Statistical Demography: The Paradigm Shift......Page 2578
III. On Empirical Analyses: Macro-level Correlations and True Micro-Level Effects......Page 2580
IV. From Micro to Macro: The Role of Agent-based Computational Demography......Page 2583
CHAPTER 134 Fertility, Child Mortality, and Nuptiality Indicators at the Individual Level......Page 2589
II. Individual Fertility Indicators......Page 2590
III. Indicators of Child Mortality Per Woman......Page 2594
IV. Possibilities Regarding nuptiality......Page 2597
V. Limitations......Page 2598
CHAPTER 135 Cohort and Period Measures of Fertility Based on Microdata......Page 2601
I. General Framework......Page 2602
II. Extensions and Application of the Life Table Procedure......Page 2604
III. Estimating the Tempo and Quantum Dimensions of Parity-Specific Fertility......Page 2606
CHAPTER 136 The Contribution of Qualitative Methods to Demography......Page 2611
I. Samples of Comprehensive Demography......Page 2612
II. Qualitative Observation Techniques......Page 2614
III. Qualitative Methods and the Quality of Demographic Data Collection......Page 2617
IV. Qualitative Approaches and the Renewal of Demography......Page 2619
CHAPTER 137 Methods of Social Network Analysis......Page 2625
I. Observed Networks and Relational Systems......Page 2626
II. Properties of Relationships and Networks......Page 2628
III. Survey Protocols......Page 2634
PART III HISTORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC SCIENCE, TEACHING, AND RESEARCH......Page 2645
I. Demography Before 1662......Page 2647
II. The Birth of Demographic Analysis (1662)......Page 2649
III. Direct Measurement of Population......Page 2650
IV. Political Arithmetic......Page 2651
V. Development of Modern Demographic Analysis (19th Century)......Page 2653
CHAPTER 139 Demographic Textbooks and Treatises: Some Considerations......Page 2659
I. European Textbooks During “Wild Demography’s” Years......Page 2660
II. The ‘50’s and ‘60’s: Demography as a Global Science......Page 2661
III. The ‘70’s: Demography in the Limelight......Page 2663
IV. Demography and Demographies: Textbooks Since the ‘80’s......Page 2665
V. Future Horizons: Textbooks and Manuals in the New Millennium......Page 2670
APPENDIX 1: Demographic Textbooks and Treatises in English, French, and Italian13......Page 2673
APPENDIX 2: Teaching Demography in the Russian Language......Page 2679
APPENDIX 3: Demographic Treatises and Textbooks in German......Page 2685
APPENDIX 4: Demographic Treatises and Textbooks in Spanish......Page 2689
APPENDIX 5: Demographic Treatises and Textbooks in Portuguese......Page 2695
APPENDIX 6: Demographic Treatises and Textbooks in Dutch......Page 2697
APPENDIX 7: Demographic Textbooks in Japanese......Page 2701
APPENDIX 8: Demographic Treatises and Textbooks Published in Other Languages or Other Countries......Page 2703
I. THE CHALLENGES TO BE MET......Page 2705
II. Understanding Demographic Behaviors......Page 2708
III. Participating in Social Management......Page 2710
IV. Developing Abilities of Interest for Business......Page 2712
V. Teaching Demography......Page 2713
VI. Pre-University Training and Popularization......Page 2717
I. COMPUTING AND DEMOGRAPHY......Page 2721
II. Using Software for Teaching Demography......Page 2722
III. Demographic Software: Inventory and Characteristics......Page 2724
IV. Criteria for Evaluating Demographic Software......Page 2730
CHAPTER 142 Centers of Demographic Research and Teaching: Origin, Development, and Characteristics......Page 2733
I. The Origin of Institutions Devoted to Demography......Page 2734
II. The Current Situation......Page 2741
III. University Centers of Training and Demographic Research......Page 2743
I. DEMOGRAPHY IN SEARCH OF ITSELF......Page 2751
II. A Rather Peculiar Survey......Page 2752
III. A DISCIPLINE TORN BETWEEN ITS HISTORICAL DIVISIONS......Page 2755
V. MULTIPLICITY OF STUDY THEMES......Page 2759
VI. Demography’s Major Factors of Change......Page 2763
VII. Between Paradigms and Methods: Putting Demographers’ Tools to the Test......Page 2764
VIII. A Discipline in Crisis or a Developing Science: Does Demography Still Have a Future?......Page 2768
Index Volume IV......Page 2773