Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies

Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 2
Copyright......Page 3
The National Academies......Page 4
OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND 
THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD......Page 5
COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS 
AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES......Page 6
SPACE STUDIES BOARD......Page 8
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD......Page 9
Dedication......Page 10
Preface......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Contents......Page 16
Summary......Page 20
THE SURVEY AND DETECTION OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 21
CHARACTERIZATION AND THE ARECIBO AND GOLDSTONE OBSERVATORIES......Page 22
MITIGATION......Page 23
RECENT NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT-RELATED EVENTS......Page 24
REFERENCES......Page 25
1 Introduction......Page 26
Task 1: NEO Surveys......Page 27
Task 2: NEO Hazard Mitigation......Page 28
REFERENCES......Page 30
2 Risk Analysis......Page 31
Introduction......Page 34
The Distribution of NEO Orbits......Page 35
The Size Distribution of NEOs and Potentially Hazardous NEOs......Page 36
Damage Produced by the Impact of NEOs......Page 38
Land Impacts That Are Incapable of Producing Global Effects......Page 39
Impacts Capable of Producing Global Effects......Page 40
Assessing the Hazard......Page 41
WARNING TIME FOR MITIGATION......Page 44
SOCIETAL ELEMENTS OF NEO RISKS......Page 45
REFERENCES......Page 46
3 Survey and Detection of Near-Earth Objects......Page 48
Minor Planet Center......Page 49
Lowell Observatory Near-Earth-Object Search......Page 50
Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Program......Page 51
Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer for Near-Earth Objects (NEOWISE)......Page 52
ADDRESSING THE 140-METER REQUIREMENT:  
FUTURE GROUND- AND SPACE-BASED NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT DISCOVERY EFFORTS......Page 53
Large Synoptic Survey Telescope......Page 54
Catalina Sky Survey Binocular Telescopes......Page 56
Discovery Channel Telescope......Page 59
Space-Based Detection Techniques......Page 60
SURVEY AND DETECTION SCHEDULES......Page 61
Imminent Impactors: NEOs on Final Approach to an Earth Impact......Page 68
REFERENCES......Page 69
GROUND-BASED REMOTE CHARACTERIZATION......Page 70
THE ROLE OF RADAR IN THE CHARACTERIZATION OF NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 71
Arecibo Radar Observatory......Page 72
Goldstone Solar System Radar......Page 73
Capabilities of Arecibo and Goldstone......Page 75
Arecibo and Goldstone Radar Operating Costs......Page 79
Recent Funding History of the Arecibo Radar......Page 80
CHARACTERIZATION ISSUES FOR AIRBURSTS......Page 81
IN SITU CHARACTERIZATION RELEVANT FOR MITIGATION......Page 82
HUMAN MISSIONS TO NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 83
REFERENCES......Page 84
5 Mitigation......Page 85
CIVIL DEFENSE: DISASTER PREPARATION AND RECOVERY......Page 88
SLOW-PUSH-PULL METHODS......Page 89
Enhanced Evaporation of Surface Material......Page 90
Application of Gravitational Force......Page 91
Description of Kinetic Impact and Its Use......Page 92
Summary......Page 93
Models and Uncertainties......Page 95
Decades to Go—Standoff Burst......Page 96
Conclusions......Page 97
DELIVERING PAYLOADS TO NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS......Page 99
SUMMARY......Page 103
BIBLIOGRAPHY......Page 106
6 Research......Page 108
EXISTING ORGANIZATIONS......Page 111
NATIONAL COOPERATION......Page 112
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION......Page 113
REFERENCE......Page 115
8 Optimal Approaches......Page 116
Appendixes......Page 120
Appendix A: Independent Cost Assessment......Page 122
Methodology for Estimating the Most Probable Range of Cost and Schedule   
for Space-Based Missions......Page 124
Most Probable Range of Cost and Schedule for the Eight Projects......Page 125
Cost Models......Page 129
Nuclear Deflector......Page 130
Technology Readiness Levels and Risk Ratings......Page 131
Appendix B: Letter of Request......Page 132
COMMITTEE TO REVIEW NEAR-EARTH-OBJECT SURVEYS 
AND HAZARD MITIGATION STRATEGIES......Page 134
SURVEY/DETECTION PANEL......Page 136
MITIGATION PANEL......Page 138
STAFF......Page 142
Appendix D: Minority Opinion - Mark Boslough, Mitigation Panel Member......Page 145
Appendix E: Glossary and Selected Acronyms......Page 147