Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Contents......Page 9
Figures and Tables......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 11
Part I: The Puzzle......Page 15
1 Breakthrough Elections: Mixed Regimes, Democracy Assistance, and International Diffusion......Page 17
Purpose and Puzzles......Page 18
Theoretical Debates about Mixed Regimes......Page 23
The Importance of Elections......Page 26
Diffusion of Democracy......Page 31
International Democracy Promotion......Page 35
The Design of This Study......Page 40
Key Terms......Page 41
Organization and Arguments......Page 43
2 Electoral Stability and Change in Mixed Regimes......Page 49
Regime Vulnerability......Page 50
It’s the Elections, Stupid......Page 56
Electoral Strategies......Page 60
International Diffusion......Page 62
Conclusions......Page 64
Part II: Case Studies......Page 65
3 The 1998 Elections in Slovakia and the 2000 Elections in Croatia: The Model Solidifies and Is Transferred......Page 67
Early Precedents: Romania and Bulgaria......Page 68
Slovakia and Croatia on the Eve: The Context......Page 73
The Slovak Democratic Coalition and OK’98......Page 77
The Opposition Unites......Page 78
Civil Society Organizations and Activities......Page 79
The Role of Outside Actors......Page 88
The Lessons of OK’98......Page 91
The Slovak Example Moves to Croatia......Page 92
The Opposition Coalesces......Page 93
Civil Society in Croatia......Page 94
The Role of Outside Actors......Page 96
Conclusion......Page 97
4 Defeating a Dictator at the Polls and in the Streets: The 2000 Yugoslav Elections......Page 99
Domination in the Face of Disaster......Page 100
Yugoslavia as a Mixed Regime......Page 103
Strategic Interactions: Regime and Opposition......Page 105
The Public Problem......Page 109
The Ironic Consequences of Hard-Line Politics in Serbia, 1998 to 1999......Page 111
The Rise of Otpor and CESID......Page 114
Shifts in U.S. Policy......Page 116
Missteps by a Master......Page 119
Conclusions......Page 126
5 Ukraine: The Orange Revolution......Page 128
Ukrainian Politics after Independence......Page 129
Opposition Cohesion......Page 136
Civil Society and Citizens’ Mobilization......Page 139
Other Actors: Business, the Security Forces, the Court, and Parliament......Page 152
Outside Actors: Another “Engineered” Revolution?......Page 155
Conclusion......Page 160
6 Georgia and Kyrgyzstan: Fraudulent Parliamentary Elections, Mass Protests, and Presidential Abdications......Page 162
Soviet and Georgian Disintegration......Page 163
Regime Decline......Page 168
Electoral Strategies of the Opposition......Page 174
The 2005 Election in Kyrgyzstan......Page 180
The Akaev Regime......Page 182
Endgame......Page 186
Conclusions......Page 189
7 Failed Cases:Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Belarus......Page 191
The Regime......Page 192
The Opposition Unifies......Page 195
NGOs and the Media......Page 199
The Role of Outside Actors......Page 200
The Regime......Page 204
The Opposition......Page 207
Civil Society......Page 208
Protesting Another Fraudulent Election......Page 209
The Role of Outside Actors......Page 210
Belarus in 2006......Page 212
The 2006 Presidential Elections......Page 214
The Political Opposition Unifies......Page 216
Civil Society Disarmed......Page 217
Protest in Minsk......Page 221
Outside Actors......Page 222
Conclusion......Page 225
Part III: Comparative Analyses......Page 227
8 Explaining Divergent Electoral Outcomes: Regime Strength, International Democracy Assistance, and Electoral Dynamics......Page 229
Regime Vulnerability and Electoral Continuity and Change......Page 230
Political Pluralism and Economic Performance......Page 234
Regime Capacity......Page 238
The Case against Structural and Institutional Accounts......Page 241
Variations among the Elections......Page 246
International Democracy Assistance......Page 248
Electoral Innovations......Page 254
The Endogeneity Challenge......Page 257
Conclusions......Page 259
9 The Electoral Model: Evolution and Elements......Page 261
Democratizing Elections: Premises......Page 262
Opposition Unity......Page 266
Electoral Procedures and Civil Society......Page 270
Politics as Usual......Page 273
Inventing the Model......Page 274
Early Experiments......Page 276
Moving to the Postcommunist Region......Page 280
The Benefits of the Electoral Approach......Page 285
Other Beneficiaries......Page 288
Conclusions......Page 290
10 The Cross-National Diffusion of Democratizing Elections......Page 292
Burden of Proof......Page 293
Diffusion: Definitions and Patterns......Page 294
Supportive Factors......Page 297
Competing Explanations......Page 298
Patterns of Diffusion......Page 300
Debating Diffusion......Page 302
Competing Interpretations......Page 304
U.S. Orchestration......Page 305
The Benefits of the Electoral Model......Page 308
Similar Conditions: Objective and Subjective Similarities......Page 309
Self-Interest......Page 312
Transnational Networks......Page 314
Conclusions......Page 318
11 After the Elections: Explaining Divergent Regime Trajectories......Page 321
What Difference Did Success Make?......Page 322
Variation among Successful Cases......Page 325
Explaining Differing Developments after Successful Ousters of Authoritarian Leaders......Page 332
Implications for Democratization......Page 338
12 Conclusions: Democratizing Elections, International Diffusion, and U.S. Democracy Assistance......Page 341
Negative Findings: Structural and Institutional Factors......Page 345
The Electoral Model......Page 346
International Diffusion......Page 348
International Democracy Assistance......Page 349
Postelection Trajectories......Page 352
Mixed Regimes......Page 354
Elections and Democratization......Page 357
International Diffusion of Democracy......Page 359
Two Cheers for Democracy Assistance?......Page 361
Armenia......Page 367
Azerbaijan......Page 368
Bulgaria......Page 369
Georgia......Page 370
Kyrgyzstan......Page 371
Serbia......Page 372
Slovakia......Page 374
Ukraine......Page 375
Multiple Cases......Page 377
Roundtables......Page 378
Index......Page 381