Decision Making in Emergency Management

Front matter
Copyright
Author Biography
Preface
Introduction to decision making for emergency managers in perspective
	Some examples of FEMA staffing failures during the Katrina Hurricane period
The military decision making process
	The Simple O.O.D.A Loop
	A more complex diagram of the OODA Loop
		Observation
	Orientation
	Decide (hypothesis)
	Action
A short history of the study of decision making
	Incrementalism
	Thinking fast and slow in decision making
	Barriers to effective decision making and some methods to try to avoid them
		The framing effect
		The familiarity effect
		The confirmation bias
		The halo effect
		Group think
	The true believers
	The “smart person” problem
	Simple mathematical formulas often make better predictions than professionals
	The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable
	Thoughts on how to think well from Allan Jacobs
	Governmental effects and constraints on good decision making
	Model I: Rational policy
	Model II: Organizational process
	Model III: Bureaucratic politics
	The emergency manager as bureaucrat
	Can we improve our decision making?
	Improving decision making by attempting to avoid some of our brain’s limitations
	Using simple mathematical formulas to improve decision making
	Applying some of the wisdom of Allan Jacob’s to improve decision making
	Applying Finkelstein, Whitehead, and Campbell (FWC) methods to improve decision making
	The value of checklists in decision making
	Evolutionary approaches and game theory
Decision making in emergencies, disasters, and catastrophic events
	Emerging trends and history affecting emergency management decision making
		Background
	The 911 attack and the development of the US Department of Homeland Security
	Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2004, 2005
	The extended, nonfederal government and its effects on emergency management
	Increasing global vulnerability to disasters
	The professionalization of emergency management
	The poor and the vulnerable as a special concern in emergency management
	Private business approaches to disaster response communication with AT&T
	Failing infrastructure must be considered in many disaster situations
	Weather-related hazards, technological hazards, and induced events (terrorists’ use of weapons of mass destruction)
	Continued urbanization across the world
	Weather-related hazards
		Floods
		Coastal flooding
		Earthquakes
		Volcanoes
		Tsunamis
		Hurricanes
	NDMS DMAT assets as a key factor in early hurricane response
	Winter storms
	Tornadoes
	Droughts and wildfires
	Heat waves
	Urban heat islands
	Technological hazards
	Lessons for industry based on the Three Mile Island (TMI) reactor disaster
	Lessons for the regulator based on the Three Mile island (TMI) reactor disaster
	Terrorism
Common mistakes in decision making during events
	Confusing success in procedural/bureaucratic processes with substantive success in the mission(s)
		A brief case study of failed decisions making by a FEMA manager confusing bureaucratic processes with “substantive success ...
	The problem of making good decisions in a group
	Group decision making
		Group think
	The problem of professional judgment in decision making during events
	Potential problems in dealing with FEMA’s Federal Coordinating Officers
	Failing to consider predeployment of staff and assets when appropriate and practical
	The error of assuming FEMA will “bail out” state and local emergency management agencies who are not themselves well prepar ...
	Errors in decision making resulting from inadequate or false information early in a disaster
	Don’t make the mistake of disregarding that recovery and mitigation are usually more complex and costlier than the relative ...
	The error of ignoring effective public relations because it is someone else’s job
	Don’t make the error of not addressing, economic, health status/disability, linguistic, racial, and ethnic differences in r ...
	The problem of ignoring individual predispositions, differences, and attributes when making emergency management decisions
	Emergency managers disregard political considerations at their peril
	Don’t expect FEMA or any federal agency to accept responsibility for security during disasters or emergencies
	Don’t disregard public health issues during recovery or response
	Don’t disregard the mental health of first responders or victims
	Don’t’ assume dealing with psychopaths is rare
	Never forget that catastrophic disasters can significantly affect history
	Don’t disregard scientific research
Money is not the problem or solution
	Government outsourcing: A dilemma that causes much government waste and failure
	The proxies for big government (state and local governments, for-profit businesses, nonprofit organizations)
		State and local government proxies
		For-profit business proxies
		Nonprofit organization proxies
	Federal contractors
	A brief case study: A truck driving contract for general conveyance after Hurricane Katrina
	A very brief case study: Outmoded communications gear in a response agency
	A brief discussion: KJ, an EPA subcontractor in environmental protection
	Mitigation can be effective, but it is usually severely underfunded at all government levels
	There is a scarcity of information on overall disaster spending at federal, state, and local levels
	FEMA has too many recurrent weaknesses to be a consistent good steward of its money
	The full-time federal workforce
Does the National Incident Management System (NIMS) really work for major event management?
	Is it that important to be competent in the NIMS/ICS?
	Is our ICS training model broken?
	Our exercises lack effort
Silos will get someone killed
	Organizational/institutional silos
	Professions and disciplines as silos
	The silos created by our own values, biases, and imprecise mental processes
	Stereotypes and generalizations
	The Confirmation Bias as an information gathering silo
	Wise thoughts on avoiding silos that are often overlooked
None of us are as smart as all of us
Global approaches to disaster management
	Response in an international disaster context
	International public health and medical response and relief
	International disaster and relief agencies and NGOs
	Nongovernmental organizations in international disaster response and relief
	International disaster response to complex humanitarian events (CHEs)
	United Nations disaster management efforts
	The development of national and international disaster research
	Inappropriate international relief efforts
Additional case studies
	Racism, religion, and an unexpected death
		Summary (some facts have been slightly altered to shield some participants)
		Lessons learned
	Good leadership can sometimes support bad decisions (since emotions for some are still high after more than a decade, som ...
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	Ego-driven decision making and behind the scenes power (some facts altered or deleted)
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	Six brittle patients needing medical evacuation stranded on Samoa at a closed airport (some facts slightly altered or mas ...
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	The young and inexperienced weather scientist who “saved the day” (some facts have been slightly altered)
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	The benefits of keeping a small footprint when stepping out of your lane
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	The use of young military recruits in local/state/federal trainings and exercises
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	Changes in the military must be recognized and dealt with
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	The unfortunate tendency of federal agencies to repeat big, well-publicized blunders instead of learning from them
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	Emergency Managers need to extend trust to receive it
		Summary
		Lessons learned
	Emergency Managers may need to improvise solutions not found in a book (even one as thorough as this one)
		Summary
		Lessons learned
References
Index
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	B
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	D
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	F
	G
	H
	I
	J
	K
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	M
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	O
	P
	Q
	R
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	T
	U
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	W
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