Decision Economics: Complexity of Decisions and Decisions for Complexity (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 1009)

Preface\n	Decision Economics: A novel discipline.\n	References\nOrganisation\n	General Chairs\n	International Program Committee\n	Organising Committee\nContents\nThe Editors\nCalibrating Methods for Decision Making Under Uncertainty\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty\n		2.1 Clairvoyance\n	3 Three Utility Functions\n		3.1 Constant Absolute Risk Aversion, CARA\n		3.2 Constant Relative Risk Aversion, CRRA\n		3.3 The Dual-Risk-Profile DRP Function from Prospect Theory\n	4 The Experiments, by Simulation\n	5 Results\n	6 Discussion\n	7 Conclusion\n	References\nCoordination and Search for New Solutions\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Outline of the Simulation Model\n	3 Simulation Experiments\n	4 Results and Discussion\n	5 Conclusion\n	References\nAppeasement or Radicalism: A Game Between Intruders and Occupiers\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Model\n		2.1 Setting\n		2.2 Solution\n	3 Further Discussion\n	4 Conclusion\n	References\nCoping with Bounded Rationality, Uncertainty, and Scarcity in Product Development Decisions: Experimental Research\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Experiment Setup\n		2.1 Puzzle Game\n		2.2 Variables\n		2.3 Experiments\n	3 Results\n		3.1 Evidence of Learning\n	4 Conclusions and Discussion\n	Acknowledgement\n	References\nWhat Next for Experimental Economics? Searching for an Alternative Pathway Founded on Mathematical Methods\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 The Scientific Method in Both Economic Theory and Experimental Economics: The Centrality of Mathematics\n	3 Decomposing Price-Effect: The DP-E Algorithm\n	4 Conclusions and Future Research\n	Appendix to Sect. 3\n	References\nGenerating Neural Archetypes to Instruct Fast and Interpretable Decisions\n	1 Introduction\n	2 GH-ARCH\n	3 Experimental Results\n		3.1 Understanding Archetypes\n		3.2 Making Sense of Archetypes and Decisions in Economics\n	4 Conclusions\n	References\nStrength Investing - A Computable Methodology for Capturing Strong Trends in Price-Time Space in Stocks, Futures, and Forex\n	Abstract\n	1 Strength Investing versus Value Investing and Trend Following\n	2 Plausibility of Strength Investing - Source of Profitability\n	3 Strength Investing in Stock Markets\n	4 Tactical Strategies of Trend Trading\n	References\nA Deep Learning Framework for Stock Prediction Using LSTM\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Methodology\n		2.1 Training and Test Sets\n		2.2 Features and Target\n		2.3 LSTM Networks\n		2.4 Benchmark Models\n			2.4.1 Linear Regression\n			2.4.2 KNN\n			2.4.3 ARIMA\n		2.5 Data\n	3 Empirical Results\n		3.1 Main Results\n	4 Conclusion\n	Acknowledgments\n	References\nTesting Fiscal Solvency in Macroeconomics\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Testing for Fiscal Solvency\n	3 Conclusions\n	References\nCEO Gender and Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence of Women on Board from EMEA Banks\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Literature Review About Board Diversity\n	3 Methodology\n		3.1 Endogeneity\n		3.2 The GMM model\n	4 Empirical models\n	5 Conclusions\n	References\nThe Minimum Heterogeneous Agent Configuration to Realize the Future Price Time Series Similar to Any Given Spot Price Time Series in the AI Market Experiment\n	1 AI Market Behaviors Hinted by FICA\'s Behaviors\n	2 Our New Remarkable Results\n		2.1 Future Price Formations by the Default Agent Configuration\n		2.2 Future Price Formations in the New Special Environment\n	3 The Importance of Interacting Price Formation Among the Strategies\n		3.1 Self-correlation and the Partial Correlation to Lag 10 with 95% White-Noise Confidence Bands\n		3.2 Analyzing the Self-referencing Factor in View of Some Agent Behaviors\n	References\nA Lab Experiment Using a Natural Language Interface to Extract Information from Data: The NLIDB Game\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Some Foundational Issues\n	3 Designing a Natural Language User Interface\n	4 Designing a Lab Experiment: The NLIDB Game\n	5 Results and Discussion\n	6 Conclusions and Future Research\n	References\nThe Interdependence of Shared Context: Autonomous Human-Machine Teams\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n		1.1 Introduction to Interdependence\n		1.2 Literature on Interdependence\n		1.3 Our Previous Findings on Interdependence\n		1.4 New Theory\n		1.5 Conclusions\n	References\nGames with Multiple Alternatives Applied to Voting Systems\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Preliminaries\n		2.1 Simple Games with Multiple Alternatives\n		2.2 Power Indices with Multiple Alternatives\n	3 Real Voting Systems\n		3.1 Nassau County Board of Supervisors of New York\n		3.2 Voting Alternatives in the Spanish Parliament\n		3.3 House of Commons of the United Kingdom\n	4 Conclusions and Future Work\n	References\nMeasuring the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Based on the News Text by Supervised LDA for Investor\'s Decision Making\n	1 Introduction\n		1.1 Measurement of the Macroeconomic Uncertainty\n		1.2 Our Contributions\n	2 Related Works\n	3 Datasets\n		3.1 Text Data\n		3.2 Numeric Data\n	4 Process\n		4.1 Text Data Preprocessing\n		4.2 Numeric Data Prepossessing\n		4.3 Topic Classification\n		4.4 Uncertainty Measurement\n	5 Topic Model\n		5.1 Supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation\n	6 Results\n		6.1 Topic Classification\n		6.2 Macro Economic Uncertainty Index\n		6.3 Correlation with the Volatilities of Other Market Indices\n	7 Conclusions and Future Works\n	References\nMapping the Geography of Italian Knowledge\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction and Foundational Issues\n	2 Data and Methods\n		2.1 The Neural Tool and the Database Used\n		2.2 The Knowledge Complexity Index (KCI)\n	3 The Geography of Italian Complex Knowledge\n	4 Conclusions\n	References\nHot Trading and Price Stability Under Media Supervision in the Chinese Stock Market\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Empirical Design and Data\n		2.1 Turnover Calculation\n		2.2 Composite Transparency\n		2.3 Media Coverage\n		2.4 Momentum Calculations\n		2.5 Data Description\n	3 Empirical Outcomes\n		3.1 The Two-Way Sorted Conditional Turnover-Momentum Portfolio\n		3.2 The Two-Way Sorted Conditional Transparency-Momentum Portfolio\n		3.3 The Two-Way Sorted Conditional Coverage-Momentum Portfolio\n	4 Robustness Checks\n		4.1 Extensive Formation and Holding Periods for Port (O, R) Portfolio\n		4.2 Extensive Formation and Holding Periods for Port (T, R) Portfolio\n		4.3 Extensive Formation and Holding Periods for Port (C, R) Portfolio\n	5 Conclusions\n	References\nDoes Cultural Distance Affect International Trade in the Eurozone?\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Cultural Distance\n		2.1 Factors Influencing Trade Between Countries: A Brief Summary\n	3 Methods: Cultural Distance Index and Impact on International Trade\n	4 Data\n	5 Results\n		5.1 Cultural Distance Among European Countries\n		5.2 The Effect of International Trade\n	6 Conclusions\n	References\nMaking Sense of Economics Datasets with Evolutionary Coresets\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Background\n		2.1 Machine Learning and Classification\n		2.2 Coreset Discovery\n		2.3 Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms\n	3 EvoCore\n	4 Experimental Results and Discussion\n		4.1 Meta-analysis\n		4.2 Making Sense of Coresets and Decisions in Economics\n	5 Conclusions\n	References\nUnderstanding Microeconomics Through Cognitive Science: Making a Case for Early Entrepreneurial Decisions\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction and Motivation\n	2 Epistemological Foundation: Defining Cognitive Agents\n	3 The Problem Space: Analytical Formalisation\n	4 The Solution Space: Searching for Satisficing Alternatives\n	5 Towards a Meta-Cognitive Generalisation\n	6 Conclusions and Future Research\n	References\nConcept Cloud-Based Sentiment Visualization for Financial Reviews\n	1 Introduction\n	2 CSCV\n		2.1 Extension of Word-Level Sentiment Using the LRP Method\n		2.2 Word-Cloud Based Text-Visualization\n	3 Experimental Evaluation\n		3.1 Text Corpus\n		3.2 Original Word Sentiment Assignment Property\n		3.3 Contextual Word Sentiment Assignment Property\n		3.4 Other Experimental Settings\n		3.5 Result\n	4 Text Visualization\n	5 Related Works\n	6 Conclusion\n	References\nPopulation Aging and Productivity. Does Culture Matter? Some Evidence from the EU\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Aging, Productivity and Culture\n	3 Method and Results\n	4 Conclusion\n	References\nComplex Decision-Making Process Underlying Individual Travel Behavior and Its Reflection in Applied Travel Models\n	Abstract\n	1 Evolution of Approaches for Modeling Travel Choices\n	2 Limited Knowledge and Learning from Individual Experience\n	3 Assessment of Potential for Machine Learning (ML) Methods in Transportation Modeling\n	4 Important Future Directions\n	References\nLearning Uncertainty in Market Trend Forecast Using Bayesian Neural Networks\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Data\n		2.1 Dataset\n		2.2 Prediction Task\n		2.3 Feature Engineering\n	3 Method\n		3.1 Convolutional Neural Networks\n		3.2 Dropout for Bayesian Neural Networks\n		3.3 Proposed Bayesian CNN\n		3.4 Prediction with Bayesian CNN Model\n	4 Results and Discussion\n		4.1 Comparison Method\n		4.2 Training\n		4.3 Modeling Results\n		4.4 Probability Prediction\n	5 Conclusion\n	References\nAmortizing Securities as a Pareto-Efficient Reward Mechanism\n	1 The Model\n		1.1 Innovation-Backed Securities (IBS)\n		1.2 More Modeling Elements\n	2 Designing the Shape of Amortizing Securities\n		2.1 The Decentralized Equilibrium Innovation Rate\n		2.2 The Socially Optimal Innovation Rate\n		2.3 The Socially Optimal Shape of Amortizing Securities\n	3 Concluding Remarks\n	References\nA Micro-level Analysis of Regional Economic Activity Through a PCA Approach\n	1 Introduction\n	2 The Economy of the Province: An Overview\n	3 An over-Time Analysis of Economic Macro-categories\n	4 A Principal Component Analysis of the Provincial Economy\n	5 Conclusions and Future Research\n	References\nCan a Free Market Be Complete?\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Contracts as Algorithms\n	3 The Question of Market Completeness\n	4 A Complete World\n	5 To Own or Not to Own ...\n	6 Conclusion\n	References\nThe Self-Organizing Map: An Methodological Note\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction and Fundamental Background\n	2 The Self-Organizing Algorithm\n		2.1 Applications and Extensions\n	3 Conclusions and Future SOM Development\n	References\nThe Study of Co-movement Mechanisms Between the Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Capital Markets\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Problem Statement\n	3 Macroeconomic Factors\n	4 Microeconomic Factors\n	5 Conclusion – Economic Meaning and Policy Recommendations\n	References\nIn Favor of Multicultural Integration: An Experimental Design to Assess Young Migrants’ Literacy Rate\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Context Analysis\n		2.1 Foreign Students in the Italian Educational System\n	3 Two Research Perspectives\n	4 The Importance and Necessity of Language Assessment in Multicultural Educational Settings\n	5 Experimental Design\n		5.1 Experimental Task\n		5.2 Bioprofile\n		5.3 Achievement Test\n		5.4 Placement Test\n		5.5 Proficiency Test BICS - CALP\n	6 Conclusion and Future Research\n	References\nCoping with Long-Term Performance Industrial Paving: A Finite Element Model to Support Decision-Making Structural Design\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Purpose of the Work\n	3 Finite Element Model Description\n		3.1 Basic Logical Scheme of DTFEM\n		3.2 DTFEM Construction\n	4 DTFEM Processing\n		4.1 Case 1: Results\n		4.2 Case 2: Results\n		4.3 Summary\n	5 Conclusions and Future Research\n	Acknowledgments\n	References\nDoes Trust Create Trust? A Further Experimental Evidence from an Extra-Laboratory Investment Game\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 From Social Psychology to Economics Experimentation\n	3 Testing Norms of Trust and Cooperation\n		3.1 Experimental Procedures\n		3.2 Preliminary Results\n	4 Conclusions\n	References\nEvolution of Business Collaboration Networks: An Exploratory Study Based on Multiple Factor Analysis\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 Inter-organizational Networks and Collaboration\n	3 Methods and Data\n		3.1 Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA)\n		3.2 Networks and Data Preparation\n	4 Results\n		4.1 Intra-structure\n		4.2 Inter-structure\n		4.3 Clustering\n	5 Conclusions and Final Considerations\n	References\nEthics and Decisions in Distributed Technologies: A Problem of Trust and Governance Advocating Substantive Democracy\n	Abstract\n	1 Ethics and Decision in Distributed Technology\n		1.1 Philosophy as Pilot of Technology? the Moralizing of Things and the Informatization of Morality\n		1.2 Distributed Technologies: Strengths and Weaknesses of an Announced Technological Revolution\n		1.3 “Distributed”, the Quality Beyond the Border of Technology: The Case of PERSONA Project\n		1.4 The Importance of Ethics and Decision-Making to Guide the Environmental Architecture of Technology\n	2 Distributed Technologies, Trust, and Governance of Democracy\n		2.1 Trust, a Complex Human Feeling\n		2.2 Are We Experiencing a Real “Crisis of Trust”?\n		2.3 The Crisis as Change of Trust-in-Governance Model\n		2.4 Democracy for Trusting Distributed Technology\n	3 Conclusions\n	Acknowledgements\n	References\nThe Ascending Staircase of the Metaphor: From a Rhetorical Device to a Method for Revealing Cognitive Processes\n	Abstract\n	1 Introduction\n	2 The Ascending Staircase Paradigm of the Metaphor\n	3 A Cognitive Approach to Metaphor\n		3.1 Metaphor: A Growing Polygonal Chain\n		3.2 Metaphor: Ornatus Element vs. Cognitive Element\n		3.3 Metaphor: Terms and Definitions\n	4 Metaphor as a Cognitive Device in Educational Activity\n	5 Conclusion and Future Research\n	References