Debt, Crisis and Reform in Bolivia: Biting the Bullet (International Finance and Development)

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 6
List of Tables......Page 10
List of Figures......Page 13
Glossary of Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 15
Glossary of Terms and Organizations......Page 18
Series Editor's Preface......Page 21
1 An Approach to the Study of External Shocks, Macroeconomic Adjustment and Stabilization Policies in Bolivia......Page 26
2 Macroeconomic Policy Objectives, External Shocks and Policy Responses......Page 32
3 Outline of this Book......Page 35
1.1 Introduction......Page 38
1.2 The Bolivian Economy in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s......Page 39
1.3 The Bolivian Debate on Macroeconomic Performance......Page 44
1.4 General Features of the Bolivian Economic Structure......Page 53
1.5 The Disaggregated Approach to Macroeconomic Adjustment......Page 57
1.6 Conclusions......Page 63
2.1 Introduction......Page 66
2.2 External Shocks......Page 67
2.3 External Sector Trends......Page 73
2.4 Conclusions......Page 83
Appendix 2.1 Estimated Capital Flight......Page 85
3.1 Introduction......Page 90
3.2 Accumulation Balance Adjustments for the Public and Private Sectors......Page 92
3.3 Accumulation Balance Adjustment for the Government......Page 106
3.4 Accumulation Balance Adjustment for Public Enterprises......Page 115
3.5 Accumulation Balance Adjustment for Companies......Page 122
3.6 Households......Page 133
3.7 Conclusions......Page 168
Appendix 3.1 The Consumption Function for the Government......Page 171
Appendix 3.2 The Investment Function for the Government......Page 173
Appendix 3.3 The Investment Function for Public Enterprises......Page 175
Appendix 3.4 The Investment Function for Companies......Page 177
Appendix 3.5 The Consumption Function for Households......Page 179
Appendix 3.6 The Investment Function for Households......Page 181
Appendix 3.7 Currency Demand Function for Households......Page 183
Appendix 3.8 The Demand-Deposit Demand Function for Households......Page 185
Appendix 3.9 The Quasi-Money Demand Function for Households......Page 187
4.1 Introduction......Page 192
4.2 The Structure of the Bolivian Financial Sector......Page 193
4.3 Financial Balances......Page 194
4.4 Interest Rate Determination......Page 227
4.5 Conclusions......Page 229
Appendix 4.1 Inflation, Financial Stocks and Financial Flows......Page 231
5.1 Introduction......Page 234
5.2 Supply-Demand Balance Adjustments......Page 235
5.3 Agricultural Sector......Page 239
5.4 Mining......Page 247
5.5 Oil and Gas......Page 250
5.6 Manufacturing......Page 253
5.7 Electricity......Page 256
5.8 Construction......Page 257
5.9 Services......Page 258
5.10 Employment and Income Distribution......Page 261
5.11 Concluding Remarks......Page 265
Appendix 5.1 Traditional Agricultural Output......Page 267
Appendix 5.2 Coca Production......Page 269
Appendix 5.3 Mining Output (COMIBOL)......Page 270
Appendix 5.4 Mining Output (Medium-Scale Companies)......Page 272
Appendix 5.5 Oil Production......Page 274
6.1 Introduction......Page 280
6.2 The Reduced-SAM Based Model for the Bolivian Economy......Page 282
6.3 Sectoral Balances......Page 293
6.4 Macroeconomic Adjustment in Bolivia within the Reduced-SAM Model......Page 306
6.5 Concluding Remarks......Page 333
7.1 Introduction......Page 336
7.2 Base Run......Page 338
7.3 External Shocks......Page 341
7.4 Policy Options And Policy Evaluation......Page 343
7.5 Simulation of External Shocks and Policy Options through the RF-CGE Model......Page 346
7.6 Shock Resulting from a Reduction in the Terms of Trade......Page 349
7.7 Shock Resulting from an Increase in the Real international Interest Rate......Page 359
7.8 Shock Resulting from a Reduction in Capital Inflows......Page 368
7.9 Shock Resulting from a Coca Crop Reduction Program......Page 377
7.10 Shock Resulting from an Increase in Foreign Direct Investment......Page 381
7.11 Conclusions......Page 388
8 Summary and Conclusions......Page 396
Appendix A: A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia......Page 408
Appendix B: The Real Financial CGE Model for Bolivia......Page 422
References......Page 446
Index......Page 460