Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy

Contents......Page 5
Foreword......Page 9
Contributors......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 13
Background Papers......Page 15
Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 17
CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Dancing with Giants......Page 19
CHAPTER 2 China and India Reshape Global Industrial Geography......Page 53
CHAPTER 3 Competing with Giants: Who Wins, Who Loses?......Page 85
CHAPTER 4 International Financial Integration of China and India......Page 119
CHAPTER 5 Energy and Emissions: Local and Global Effects of the Giants’ Rise......Page 151
CHAPTER 6 Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth in China and India......Page 193
CHAPTER 7 Governance and Economic Growth......Page 229
References......Page 261
Index......Page 283
Figure 1.1 China and Previous Growth Spurts Compared......Page 27
Figure 2.1 Product Structure of Exports......Page 58
Figure 2.2 Product Structure of Imports......Page 59
Figure 3.1 Exports of Goods and Nonfactor Services as a Share of GDP......Page 88
Figure 3.2 Share of Commercial Services in Total Exports......Page 89
Figure 3.3 Composition of Services Exports......Page 90
Figure 3.4 Export Shares in China and India, 2001......Page 98
Figure 4.1 Net Foreign Asset Positions, 1985–2004......Page 124
Figure 4.2 International Financial Integration: Sum of Foreign Assets and Liabilities......Page 126
Figure 4.3 Top Foreign Asset and Liability Holders, 2004......Page 128
Figure 4.4 Selected Financial Sector Indicators......Page 132
Figure 5.1 Primary Energy Use of Coal and Total CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, China and India, 1980–2003......Page 159
Figure 5.2 Air Quality Comparison, Selected World Cities, 2000......Page 161
Figure 5.3 Increase in Crude Oil Use Relative to First Quarter 2001, Various Countries......Page 165
Figure 5.4 OPEC Spare Production Capacity......Page 166
Figure 5.5 China’s and India’s Shares of World Oil Consumption and Trajectory of World Oil Prices, BAU and BAU-H Scenarios......Page 177
Figure 5.6 Extent of Energy and Emission Decoupling in the Case of Final Energy Consumption......Page 183
Figure 6.1 Growth and Poverty Reduction, 1981–2003......Page 194
Figure 6.2 Growth Rates at the Subnational Level......Page 200
Figure 6.3 Sectoral GDP Growth Rates, 1980–2003......Page 202
Figure 6.4 Growth Incidence Curves for China (1980–99) and India (1993–99)......Page 207
Figure 6.5 Trends in Income Inequality, 1978–2003......Page 208
Figure 6.6 Growth Rates at the Subnational Level Plotted against Initial Poverty Rates......Page 214
Table 1.1 Gross Domestic Product in Six Large Economies......Page 24
Table 1.2 Comparative Industrialization......Page 26
Table 1.3 Trade in Goods and Services for Six Large Economies......Page 33
Table 1.4 Shares in World Consumption of Primary Commodities......Page 34
Table 2.2 China’s and India’s Shares of World Imports......Page 54
Table 2.3 Households Owning High-income Consumer Durables in China, 2004......Page 56
Table 2.4 Households Owning Selected Assets in India, 2001......Page 57
Table 2.5 Industry Exports as a Percentage of Total Exports, China and India......Page 68
Table 2.6 Indicators of All State-owned and Non-state-owned Enterprises in China, by Industrial Sector, 2004......Page 70
Table 3.1 Composition of Nonfuel Imports and Exports by Broad Economic Classification, 1992 and 2004......Page 91
Table 3.2 Top 25 Exports for China and India, 2004......Page 93
Table 3.3 Impact of India’s Integration with the World Economy, 2020......Page 97
Table 3.4 Output, Factor Inputs, and Population Projections, 2005–20......Page 101
Table 3.5 Changes in Key Economic Indicators as a Result of Global Growth, 2005–20......Page 103
Table 3.6 Welfare and Trade Changes as a Result of Global Growth, 2005–20......Page 104
Table 3.7 Impact of Improved Growth and Quality Exports in China and India, Relative to Base, 2020......Page 105
Table 3.8 Manufacturing Output: Effects of Improved Growth and Quality Exports in China and India, Relative to Base, 2020......Page 108
Table 3.9 Industry Effects of Improved Sectoral Productivity Growth in China and India, Relative to Base, 2020......Page 113
Table 3.10 Export Volume Changes under Various Scenarios, Relative to Base, 2020......Page 116
Table 4.1 Composition of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 2004......Page 125
Table 4.2 Asymmetries in the International Balance Sheet, 2004......Page 127
Table 5.1 Energy Balance in China and India, 1980–2003......Page 154
Table 5.2 Changes in Energy Intensity in China, India, and the United States......Page 155
Table 5.3 Sectoral and Fuel Shares of Energy Consumption in China and India......Page 175
Table 5.4 Summary of ALT Scenarios Relative to BAU for China and India, 2005–50......Page 182
Table 5A.1 Energy Balance, 1980–2003......Page 188
Table 6.1 Poverty Reduction and the Sectoral Composition of Growth......Page 203
Table 6.2 Poverty Reduction and the Urban–Rural Composition of Growth......Page 205
Table 7.1 Correlates of Growth, 1980–2004......Page 233