Critical Turning Points in the Middle East: 1915 - 2015

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 6
List of Maps......Page 8
List of Tables......Page 9
List of Figures......Page 10
Foreword......Page 11
Acknowledgements......Page 14
List of Abbreviations......Page 15
1 Introduction......Page 18
The state of the Middle East?......Page 23
Critical turning points......Page 27
Defining the Middle East......Page 32
Structure of the book......Page 33
Accounting for the rise of the Arab-Islamic Empire......Page 43
Accounting for the decline of the Arab-Islamic Empire......Page 51
Pre-twentieth-century critical turning points......Page 56
Conclusions: The seeds of the first twentieth-century critical turning point......Page 73
3 Double Diplomacy and Betrayal......Page 75
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire: Initial conditions......Page 77
The first critical turning point......Page 80
The post-Ottoman political development path......Page 84
Reactions and counter-responses......Page 86
Conclusions: The seeds of the second critical turning point......Page 94
4 The Arab Defeat......Page 96
The 1948 Arab-Israeli conflict: Initial conditions......Page 97
The second critical turning point......Page 103
The political development path: The renewal of Arab unity......Page 104
Conclusions: The seeds of the third critical turning point......Page 112
5 The Six-Day War and its Consequences......Page 116
The 1967 War: Initial conditions......Page 117
The third critical turning point......Page 123
Post-1967: The political development path......Page 125
Conclusions: The seeds of the fourth critical turning point......Page 130
6 The Iranian Revolution and its Aftershock......Page 133
The events of 1979: Initial conditions......Page 134
The fourth critical turning point......Page 139
The political development path following the Iranian revolution......Page 141
Conclusions: The seeds of the fifth critical turning point......Page 145
7 A New Strategic Context in the Middle East......Page 148
The events of 1987–91: Initial conditions......Page 150
The fifth critical turning point......Page 152
The political development path following the events of 1987–91......Page 156
Conclusions: The seeds of the sixth critical turning point......Page 162
8 September 11 and After......Page 164
The September 11 attacks: Initial conditions......Page 165
The sixth critical turning point......Page 168
The post-September 11 political development path......Page 172
Conclusions: The seeds of a potential seventh critical turning point......Page 176
9 Implications for a Potential Seventh Critical Turning Point – 2011–15......Page 183
Current stresses and tensions in the Middle East......Page 184
Approaches to managing change in the region......Page 191
Our narrative: Endogenous good governance – Reducing dignity deficits......Page 197
Internal challenges to dignity needs......Page 200
External dignity deficits......Page 214
Lessons learnt: Addressing dignity deficits......Page 223
Concluding remarks......Page 229
Notes......Page 232
Index......Page 266