COVID-19: Systemic Risk and Resilience

Contents
1 Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives on Systemic Risk and Resilience in the Time of COVID-19
	Abstract
	1.1 Covid-19
	1.2 Systemic Risk
	1.3 Resilience
	1.4 Contributions of This Book
	Disclaimer:
	Reference
2 Ten Strategies for Leadership During COVID-19: A Plan of Action for Decision Makers in Times of Critical Change
	Abstract
	2.1 Key Questions to Ask
	2.2 Conclusion
3 Some Elements of Analysis of the Bibliography on Risk and Resilience on COVID-19
	Abstract
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Brief Literature Review
	3.3 Specific Investigations
	3.4 Discussion and Conclusions
4 Real-time Anticipatory Response to COVID-19: A Novel Methodological Approach
	Abstract
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 Theoretical Context: Defining the Field of Organizational Resilience
	4.3 Real-time Anticipatory Response to COVID-19
		4.3.1 Managing Initial Obstacles and Uncertainties
		4.3.2 Pacific Island Vulnerabilities
		4.3.3 Developing a Multidisciplinary Approach Through Various Data Sources and Stakeholder Input
	4.4 Modeling Regional Real-time Adaptive Response to COVID-19
		4.4.1 Population Health Analysis
		4.4.2 Organizational Resource Requirements
	4.5 Modeling Results and Interpretation
	4.6 Conclusion
	Disclaimer:
	References
5 Complexity, Interconnectedness and Resilience: Why a Paradigm Shift in Economics is Needed to Deal with Covid 19 and Future Shocks
	Abstract
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 Why a New Economic Paradigm is Needed
	5.3 A Complex Systems View of the Covid‑19 Pandemic
	5.4 Systems Thinking and Resilience Approaches
	5.5 Conclusions
	Disclaimer:
	References
6 Enhancing Current Practice from the Natural and Manmade Hazards Domain to Pandemic: Insights from the Italian Case
	Abstract
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Methodological Aspects
	6.3 Emergency Planning and Preparedness: Issues and Pitfalls in Current Practice
		6.3.1 Development of Plans According to Scenario Planning and Its Limits
		6.3.2 Appropriate Consideration of Systemic Impacts and Vulnerabilities
		6.3.3 Appropriate Consideration of Spatial and Temporal Scales
		6.3.4 Operationality
	6.4 Italy: Gaps in Preparedness and Planning that Emerged in the Covid 19 Crisis
		6.4.1 Existence of a Pandemic Plan
		6.4.2 Limitations of Considered Scenarios
		6.4.3 Issues in Multiscale Coordination and Lack of a Systemic Approach
		6.4.4 Insufficient Consideration of Time Scale Issues
		6.4.5 Lack of Operational Knowledge of Tools
	6.5 Integrating the Pandemic in More Integrated Emergency Planning and Preparedness Process
	6.6 Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	Disclaimer:
	References
	Consulted Documents and Legislation
7 Value-Based Optimization of Healthcare Resource Allocation for COVID-19 Hot Spots
	Abstract
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 An Optimization Model for Hospital Bed Allocation
	7.3 Case Study
		7.3.1 Data and Assumptions
		7.3.2 Implementation
		7.3.3 Optimization Results
	7.4 Discussion
	7.5 Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	Disclaimer:
	References
8 Overview of Preventive Measures and Good Governance Policies to Mitigate the COVID-19 Outbreak Curve in Brunei
	Abstract
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 Methodology
		8.2.1 Study Area
		8.2.2 Data Collection
		8.2.3 Flattening the Curve
	8.3 Results and Discussion
		8.3.1 The Outbreak of COVID-19 Cases in Brunei
		8.3.2 Daily and Total Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Brunei
		8.3.3 Timeline of Events and Actions Taken by the Brunei Government
		8.3.4 Contract Tracing and Public Information Campaigns
		8.3.5 International Travel Controls
		8.3.6 Testing Policies
		8.3.7 Closure of Schools and Academic Institutes
		8.3.8 Cancellation of Public Events and Restriction of Public Gatherings
		8.3.9 Review of Resilience Measures Adapted by Various Countries in Comparison to Brunei
			8.3.9.1 Human Development Index Indicator Showing The Preparedness Towards the Control of the Pandemic Among Nations
			8.3.9.2 Countries Highly Cited for Better Control of This Pandemic
			8.3.9.3 Comparison Among the Nations Where Covid-19 Cases are Reported Within First 3 Weeks
			8.3.9.4 Spread of COVID-19 Outbreak in Other Nations Where the First Case was Reported on Same Day as Brunei
			8.3.9.5 Comparison of Spread of COVID-19 Outbreak in Nations Per Capita Cases
			8.3.9.6 Resilience Measures Among the Nations Where the First Case was Reported a Week Before Brunei’s
			8.3.9.7 Overall Perspective of an Outbreak in Brunei Compared to the Global Nations
			8.3.9.8 Salient Resilience Features of Brunei Government and Mitigation, Measures to Suppress the Outbreak
	8.4 Conclusions
	Funding:
	References
9 Precarious Aging: COVID-19 Risk, Resilience and Response
	Abstract
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 COVID-19: A ‘Gero-Pandemic’
	9.3 A Risk, Resilience and Response Perspective
	9.4 Risk, Vulnerability and Aging During a Pandemic
	9.5 Risk, Resilience and Response Among Selected Vulnerable Older Groups
	9.6 Risk, Resilience and Response of Older Adults in the Community
	9.7 Ageism and Intergenerational Tensions as Barriers to Resilient Responses to a Gero-pandemic
	9.8 The Technological and Human Interface as a Response to COVID-19
	9.9 Conclusion
	References
10 The Impact of “Flatten the Curve” on Interdependent Economic Sectors
	Abstract
	10.1 Introduction
	10.2 Methods
	10.3 Results and Discussion
	10.4 Conclusions and Areas for Future Study
	Disclaimer:
	References
11 Repercussions of Monsoon in the Indian Sub-continent During COVID-19
	Abstract
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Monsoon and COVID-19 Transmission: The Odds-On
	11.3 Socio-economic Impacts of Monsoon-COVID-19 Synergy
	11.4 Conclusions
	Acknowledgements
	References
12 Why Did Risk Communication Fail for the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How Can We Do Better?
	Abstract
	12.1 Introduction
	12.2 Social Dilemmas and Risk Communication
	12.3 Social Dilemmas, Incentive Structures, and the Novel Coronavirus: Aligning Intervention Needs with Effect Communication Narratives
	12.4 A Social-Ecological Perspective
	12.5 Social-Psychological Dimensions of Social Ecological Systems
	12.6 Risk Communication Complexity in the Pandemic
	Disclaimer:
	References
13 Inclusive Communication to Influence Behaviour Change During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Examining Intersecting Vulnerabilities
	Abstract
	13.1 Introduction
	13.2 Governing COVID-19 Risks Through Communication
	13.3 Targeting Risk Communication to Achieve Behavioural Change
		13.3.1 The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM)
		13.3.2 The Need for Targeted Risk Communication
	13.4 Intersecting Vulnerabilities and Information Behaviours
		13.4.1 Channel Access and Preference
		13.4.2 Threat Perceptions and Protective Action Perceptions
	13.5 Barriers Within the Information to Behavioural Change Loop
		13.5.1 Predecisional Processes
		13.5.2 Situational Impediments and Facilitators
		13.5.3 Perceived Control Over Outcomes
		13.5.4 Stakeholder Perceptions
	13.6 Conclusion and Recommendations
	Acknowledgements
	References
14 Between Resilience and Adaptation: A Historical Framework for Understanding Stability and Transformation of Societies to Shocks and Stress
	Abstract
	14.1 Introduction
	14.2 Methodological Considerations
	14.3 Earthquakes: Beirut and the Earthquake of 551 CE
	14.4 Pandemics, 1: The Justinianic Plague
	14.5 Pandemics, 2: The Black Death
	14.6 Animal Epizootics
	14.7 Climate, 1. Who Pays for the Survival of an Empire? The Byzantine ‘Great Famine’ (927–928 CE)
	14.8 Climate, 2. Who Pays for the Survival of an Empire?: The Ottoman State and the Limits of Resilience
	14.9 Climate, 3: Early 19th-Century Krakow and the Costs of Sustainability
	14.10 Discussion
	14.11 Conclusions
	Acknowledgments
	Disclaimer:
	References
15 COVID and Climate: Exploring Categorical Resilience in the Built Environment
	Abstract
	15.1 Introduction
	15.2 Resilience Planning Informs COVID Response
	15.3 COVID Informs Future Resilience Planning
	15.4 COVID and Climate Highlight Limitations of Current Resilience Thinking
	15.5 Conclusions
	Disclaimer:
	References
16 The COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons for Urban Resilience
	Abstract
	16.1 Introduction
	16.2 Insights from the Literature
		16.2.1 Economy
		16.2.2 Environmental Management
		16.2.3 Governance
		16.2.4 Smart Cities
		16.2.5 Social Issues
		16.2.6 Transportation
		16.2.7 Urban Design
	16.3 Summary and Conclusions
	References
17 Resilient Urban Housing Markets: Shocks Versus Fundamentals
	Abstract
	17.1 Introduction
	17.2 The U.S. Housing Market in 2020: Resilience and Adaptation
		17.2.1 Short-Run Aggregate Dynamics: Insights from Prices and Rents
		17.2.2 Covid-19 Cases: Greater Frictions, Declining Rents, Resilient Prices
		17.2.3 Evidence of Short-Run Suburbanization
		17.2.4 Local Housing Markets and the May 2020 Urban Protests
	17.3 Housing Markets in the Long Run: The Role of Shocks Versus Initial Conditions
		17.3.1 Explaining Metropolitan Growth in the Long Run
		17.3.2 The Resilience of the New York City Housing Market After September 11
		17.3.3 Rebuilding San Francisco After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake
	17.4 Conclusion
	Disclaimer:
	References
18 Mutual Aid in the Time of COVID-19 and the Future of Hyper-Local Community Resilience
	Abstract
	18.1 Introduction
	18.2 Origins of Mutual Aid
	18.3 Mutual Aid Post-COVID-19
	18.4 Technology
	18.5 Will Mutual Aid Stay Mutual?
	18.6 Conclusion
	References
19 Understanding How Community Resilience Can Inform Community Development in the Era of COVID
	Abstract
	19.1 Introduction
	19.2 Defining Community Resilience and Community Development
	19.3 The Impacts of COVID-19 on Communities
	19.4 Inclusive Recovery as a Path to More Robust Resilience
	19.5 A Community Development Framework
	19.6 Applying the Framework: How to Braid Community Development and Community Resilience in Practice
	19.7 Conclusion and Recommendations
	References
20 Strengthening Community Resilience to Reduce Barriers to Economic Participation During a Pandemic and a Climate Crisis
	Abstract
	20.1 Community Resilience in a Regional Economy
	20.2 CD Field Pandemic Responses to Strengthen Individual and Household Resilience
	20.3 Community Resilience at a Regional Scale
	20.4 Charting an Equitable Recovery
	20.5 Community Resilience Starts with Regional Thinking
	Disclaimer:
	References
21 Resilience for Whom? Insights from COVID-19 for Social Equity in Resilience
	Abstract
	21.1 Introduction
	21.2 Contested Concepts of Resilience
	21.3 Inequity in COVID-19 Pandemic
		21.3.1 Exposure
		21.3.2 Sensitivity
		21.3.3 Response and Recovery
	21.4 Potential of COVID
	21.5 A Broadening Concept of Community Resilience
	References
22 The Vaccine Supply Chain: A Call for Resilience Analytics to Support COVID-19 Vaccine Production and Distribution
	Abstract
	22.1 Introduction
	22.2 Vaccine Supply Chains
		22.2.1 Vaccine Supply Chains
		22.2.2 Manufacturing
		22.2.3 Cold Chain
		22.2.4 Last Mile
		22.2.5 Reverse Logistics and (Biohazard) Waste Management
		22.2.6 Vaccine Supply Chains and Interconnected Networks
		22.2.7 MMR and Smallpox Vaccine Case Studies
		22.2.8 Vaccine Supply Chain Disruptions
	22.3 Supply Chain Models and Resilience Analytics
		22.3.1 Lack of Existing Academic Publications on Vaccine Supply Chain Resilience
		22.3.2 Supply Chain Resilience Publications—Modeling Trends
		22.3.3 COVID-19 Current Trends and Impacts on Supply Chain Resilience
	22.4 COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Chain Resilience Needs and Challenges
	22.5 Conclusions
	Disclaimer:
	References
Index