Counterfactuals and Probability

Content: Cover
 Counterfactuals and Probability
 Copyright
 Dedication
 Contents
 Preface
 1: Introduction
 1.1 Uncertainty about Counterfactuals
 1.2 Where Uncertainty Shows Up
 1.3 The Debate about Indicative Conditionals
 1.4 Counterfactuals
 1.5 Standard Semantics
 1.6 Systematizing the Data
 1.7 Identifying the Challenge
 1.8 Non-Standard Explanations
 1.9 Modifying the Semantics
 1.10 Overview
 2: The Problem of Evaluating Counterfactuals
 2.1 Probability
 2.2 Prior Epistemic Probabilities
 2.3 Hypothetical Epistemic Probabilities
 2.4 Prior Propensities
 2.4.1 Morgenbesser Cases 2.4.2 Counterfactuals and Determinism2.4.3 Counterlegals
 2.4.4 Probabilistic Modus Ponens
 2.5 Conclusion
 3: Counterfactual Chance
 3.1 The Selection Function
 3.2 Relevance and Chance
 3.3 A Principal Principle for Counterfactuals
 3.4 Admissible Evidence
 3.5 Comparison with Skyrms
 3.6 Imaging
 3.7 Generalized Imaging
 3.8 Imaging and the PP-Constraint
 3.9 Some Methodological Considerations
 3.10 Conclusion
 4: A Puzzle About Counterfactuals
 4.1 The Problem for Standard Semantics
 4.2 The Puzzle
 4.3 A Means of Escape
 4.4 Comparison with Indicative Conditionals
 4.5 Conclusion 5: Restriction and Modification5.1 The Restrictor View
 5.2 Simple Conditionals
 5.3 Counterfactual 'If '-Clauses as Restrictors
 5.4 Counterfactual 'If '-Clauses as Modifiers
 5.5 Variants of theView
 5.6 The Lack of Independent Evidence
 5.7 The Problem of Embeddings
 5.8 Conclusion
 6: Counterfactuals and Arbitrariness
 6.1 A Proposal
 6.1.1 The Epsilon-Operator
 6.1.2 Arbitrary Truth Conditions
 6.1.3 The Logic of Counterfactuals
 6.1.4 The Metaphysics of Arbitrariness
 6.1.5 Comparisons
 6.2 The Evaluation of Counterfactuals
 6.2.1 Uniformity Reconsidered 6.2.2 Modelling the Epistemic Space6.3 Knowability and Assertability
 6.4 Revisiting the Puzzle
 6.5 Conclusion
 7: Applications
 7.1 Counterfactuals with a True Antecedent
 7.2 Duality
 7.3 Conditional Excluded Middle
 7.4 The Limit Assumption
 8: Triviality
 8.1 Lewis on Imaging
 8.2 Leitgeb's Observation
 8.3 Williams's Extension of Lewis's Triviality Result
 8.4 Conclusion
 9: Concluding Remarks
 9.1 Error Theories
 9.2 Pragmatic Explanations
 9.3 Unifying the Theory?
 9.4 Conclusion
 Bibliography
 Index