Coronavirus News, Markets and AI: The COVID-19 Diaries

Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acknowledgements
	Notes
About the Book
	Notes
Introduction
	'Unstructured data' and the huge quantities of information
	'Structured data' versus 'unstructured data'
	Significance of 'unstructured data'
	What is 'unstructured data' analysis and how are we doing it?
	The importance of 'multiple sources', 'local language news' and 'translation'
	Coronavirus pandemic: The key global event for 2020
	Overreaction and the coronavirus pandemic
	How do we calculate the coronavirus sentiment?
	Big data and AI (Artificial Intelligence) texts are the foundation for this book
	EMAlpha sentiment technology
	Crude oil price and its linkage with coronavirus sentiment
	News sentiment on the president of the United States, Donald Trump
	Why local news-based sentiment analysis matters
	How base rate changes everything
	High-Profile cases and the impact on coronavirus sentiment
	The country-by-country sentiment on the coronavirus
	COVID-19 has turned the world upside down
	What are the factors that influence the pandemic news?
	What do we see more in this coronavirus news?
	How do we use the inferences drawn from 'unstructured data'?
	Notes
Part I: The Method
1. How to Read This Book?
	A few suggestions before you begin
	A sample of our machine-aided observations
2. Reading Coronavirus News
	Coronavirus: neither the first nor the last pandemic
	What is sentiment analysis?
	News sentiment versus real impact
	The media coverage on the coronavirus and the impact on financial markets
	The coronavirus pandemic crisis versus the global financial crisis of 2008
	This book is a diary of market analysts watching sentiment on the coronavirus
	How do we calculate the coronavirus sentiment?
	Notes
3. Sentiment Analysis, Big Data and AI
	Big data and AI (artificial intelligence) texts are the foundation for this book
	The drivers of sentiment analysis
	'Efficient market hypothesis' versus 'inefficiencies of markets'
	More information = more data, more data = more analytics
	How precise is big data inferences?
	The path from unstructured data to actionable insights
	Big data applications: they are everywhere
	No turning back
4. Unstructured Data: How to Tame the Beast?
	EMAlpha sentiment technology
	The major challenges
	What have we done?
	Machine sentiment combined with human expertise
Part II: The Results
5. Ebbing in May: 'Are We Celebrating Too Early?'
	29 May 2020: Oil news sentiment captures the firmness in crude prices
	16 May 2020: Oil sentiment: conflicting signs from the IEA and aramco stock price
	14 May 2020: Did world media underestimate the coronavirus crisis in Latin America?
	14 May 2020: Is oil sentiment telling that the worst of the coronavirus is behind Us?
	10 May 2020: Coronavirus threat: who can afford a lockdown and for how long?
	1 May 2020: Beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder, so does risk!
	Notes
6. The Deadly April: 'Blame Game and Search for a Coronavirus Vaccine'
	30 April 2020: Is the 'news sentiment impact' on markets back in business?
	27 April 2020: Oil, again
	Coronavirus country-by-country sentiment time series
	Coronavirus aggregate global sentiment time series
	News sentiment for topical keywords
	Crude oil news sentiment
	Aggregate india equity market sentiment
	22 April 2020: Oil's historic fall: Precipitated by quickly worsened sentiment?
	21 April 2020: Crude and coronavirus: Oil futures in negative for the first time in history and its key implications
	20 April 2020: Markets and the coronavirus sentiment: The battle between optimism and pessimism
	The details and inferences from the coronavirus and news sentiment
	Coronavirus country-by-country sentiment time series
	Coronavirus aggregate global sentiment time series
	Daily coronavirus sentiment heat map for countries
	News topic sentiment for keywords
	Crude oil news sentiment
	Aggregate india equity markets sentiment
	17 April 2020: News sentiment on donald trump does not matter for markets? no, it does not - not really?
	15 April 2020: Is trump losing the perception battle in media and why does this matter for markets?
	9 April 2020: Is the fed making data on fundamentals irrelevant for markets?
	8 April 2020: Why does local news-based sentiment analysis matter?
	Does all this really matter for the markets?
	6 April 2020: Coronavirus: Darkest before the dawn or no light at the end of the tunnel?
	Coronavirus country-by-country sentiment time series
	Daily coronavirus sentiment heat map for countries
	News topic sentiment for keywords
	Crude oil news sentiment
	Aggregate india equity markets sentiment
	Coronavirus numbers and statistics
	1 April 2020: Coronavirus sentiment versus aggregate market sentiment and the base rate
	Why does base rate matter?
	Notes
7. Coronavirus Goes Global in March: 'Oops ... It Is Getting Serious'
	30 March 2020: The dichotomy of a worse coronavirus situation and better markets
		Coronavirus Country Sentiment
		Global Coronavirus Sentiment
		News Topic Sentiment
		Oil Sentiment
		Coronavirus Sentiment Map
		Coronavirus Numbers and Statistics
	25 March 2020: For global economy and EMs, better news sentiment on the United States helps
	24 March 2020: Coronavirus news sentiment and Indian markets on 20 and 23 March
	23 March 2020: Coronavirus, news Sentiment and investor behaviour
		Coronavirus, Sentiment and Markets
			Phase 1: 10 January to 9 February
			Phase 2: 10 February to 2 March
		The Importance of Local News
			Phase 3: 3 March to Present
	18 March 2020: Coronavirus sentiment: Deteriorating further and what did we learn in India?
	15 March 2020: High-Profile cases and the impact on coronavirus sentiment
	10 March 2020: EMAlpha news sentiment: The markets and coronavirus
	7 March 2020: Coronavirus, human irrationality and Daniel Kahneman
	4 March 2020: Coronavirus Sentiment Watch
	2 March 2020: Coronavirus impact on markets: Is local sentiment more important?
	Notes
8. The Build-Up in February : 'Come on, Do Not Worry Too Much'
	27 February 2020: Coronavirus and markets
	9 February 2020: The coronavirus and how sentiment impacts the market
	Notes
Part III: The Samples
9. Politics, Conspiracy Theories and Religion
	10 March: Iranian claims dealing with the coronavirus outbreak fell to agencies at the last minute
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	13 March: American National Security Advisor Accusing China of the pandemic
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	13 March: China accusing the United States Military of the Coronavirus
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	14 March: Did trump catch COVID-19 from Jair Bolsonaro
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	15 March: 'Coronavirus holidays' and debate on measures adopted by politicians
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	16 March: Muslims returning to Turkey from Pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia are taken into quarantine
	16 March: Trump Administration Offered the German Pharmaceutical Company a 'Large Sum of Money' for exclusivity on vaccination against the coronavirus
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	19 March: New coronavirus infection is not produced in the laboratory
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	20 March: Trump accuses China of failing to share information on the epidemic
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	21 March: 700 cases linked to a mass religious gathering held at a mosque
	22 March: Filipinos who attended a religious event in Malaysia linked to a Spike in COVID-19
	25 March: Response of politicians to the coronavirus
	26 March: Activists launch 'Digital Protest' to end United States Sanctions on Iran
	27 March: Coronavirus - where it came from for humans
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	28 March: The Verbal War between Iran and the United States
	29 March: Brazil and coronavirus cases in Italy, Germany and Spain
		English translation:
	4 April: A cluster of coronavirus cases can be traced back to a single mosque, and now 200 million muslims are being vilified
	5 April: Canada's Health Minister's credulity plays right into China's hands
	11 April: Churches in Singapore took good friday services online
	16 April: Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson quotes WHO and said to support that there is no evidence that the coronavirus was released from a laboratory
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	16 April: Trump said his government is trying to determine if the coronavirus came from a laboratory
	18 April: France said no evidence so far of a link between the new coronavirus and the P4 research laboratory in Wuhan
	19 April: Heavy criticism of the work of the undersecretary of health in Mexico
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	20 April: Tension between France and China
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	21 April: Political crisis in Brazil and president Jair Bolsonaro
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	23 April: Washington not letting up on its 'Maximum Pressure' against Iran
	24 April: States face legal hurdles in coronavirus lawsuits against China
	26 April: Chinese government official slams Australia's push for an investigation into the coronavirus outbreak
	27 April: Chinese diplomats seem to have tried to influence german officials
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	28 April: Iran pushes back against the United States' plan for snapback sanctions
	1 May: United States' top intelligence agency, said that the COVID-19 virus is not artificially created or genetically modified
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	2 May: The United States has slapped new sanctions on Iran
10. The Coronavirus Pandemic's Economic Impact
	11 March: Oil tumbled after a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia over production cuts
	17 March: The United States passed a multibillion aid package to limit the economic damage from the pandemic
	21 March: The norwegian central bank may cut rates again
	25 March: Coronavirus pandemic's impact on the Brazilian economy
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	30 March: A decline in oil prices
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	30 March: One in five people in Britain fear an economic depression
	31 March: According to the UNDP, income losses are expected to exceed US$220 billion in developing countries and nearly half of jobs lost in Africa
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	31 March: The impact of the coronavirus on small businesses
	5 April: Malaysia approves cryptocurrency exchange
	8 April: Coronavirus-induced recession in Germany
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	10 April: Economic rescue package of €500 billion for European Union member states
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	12 April: Rishi Sunak's former goldman sachs boss is to take on treasury post
	13 April: Public companies are putting off release of financial statements
	14 April: Britain Received 1.4 Million New Benefit Claims for Welfare Payments
	15 April: The epidemic has disrupted key service sectors, tourism, hospitality and retail
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	20 April: A serious slowdown in the Australian property market
	21 April: The United Kingdom firms furlough over a million workers due to the coronavirus
	29 April: Companies in the information and communication sector reported a downturn and failing IT investments
		Machine-generated translation in english:
11. Disease, Devastation and Hope
	10 March: Information and data play a key role in understanding the problem and finding solutions
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	11 March: Researchers looking for volunteers willing to become infected with the coronavirus in exchange for payment
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	19 March: Coronavirus has spread to 158 countries
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	24 March: Therapies for new coronavirus infectious diseases
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	26 March: Capacities in medical institutions are running out
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	27 March: Can nivaquine or plasteril help coronavirus patients?
	28 March: Private hospitals in have stopped accepting coronavirus patients
	29 March: Coronavirus and SARS-COV, who triggered a pandemic in 2003/2004
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	2 April: Epidemic exposes health system problems in the United States, the number of deaths exceeds 4,000
	3 April: India's poor live on promises in the wake of COVID-19 Crisis
	6 April: Boris Johnson Tested Positive and had been Self-Isolating
	9 April: In New York, more people died from the coronavirus than in the attack on the World Trade Centre on 11 September 2001
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	10 April: Boris Johnson left intensive care on thursday evening as he continues to recover from COVID-19
	11 April: Modi's India is not prepared for the coronavirus
	17 April: Brazil passes 30,000 cases of coronavirus this 16 April. In total, the country has 30,425 cases and 1,924 deaths
	19 April: 99-Year-Old British war veteran raised more than US$29 million for the health service
	23 April: Sweden stayed away from the Lockdown, and its capital stockholm may reach 'Herd Immunity' in weeks
	25 April: Singapore's exemplary handling of the coronavirus epidemic
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	27 April: Healthy again, the British Prime Minister says it is too risky to relax the Lockdown yet
	29 April: The depressing statistics on the coronavirus
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	30 April: World Health Organisation Lauded Sweden as a 'Model' for battling the coronavirus
	2 May: How it was like to live in Sweden during the coronavirus crisis
12. Human Nature and the Impact on Normal Life
	6 March: Australian paper prints blank pages to help tackle toilet paper shortage
	9 March: Cancellation of football matches in Germany
	15 March: Change in customer behaviour following the COVID-19
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	18 March: Britain's government set out emergency legislation on tuesday to tackle a growing coronavirus outbreak
	20 March: Queen Elisabeth II released a statement urging people to follow expert advice
	22 March: Traffic on roads and highways in the United States has fallen dramatically
	23 March: Shinzo Abe said the Tokyo olympics may have to be postponed
	1 April: Several countries in latin America and Europe are extending quarantine
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	2 April: Tempers are fraying in supermarkets in Paris
	7 April: Florida Beaches remained packed with partying college students
	8 April: Working hours to be reduced in the Arab States, Europe and Asia-Pacific
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	13 April: Debate on easing of coronavirus measures in Germany is gaining momentum
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	14 April: Europe is warily easing some restrictions
	17 April: The United States Federal Government proposes to resume daily life
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	22 April: The huge increase in food retail sales led to a rise in Prices
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	25 April: Protesters demand wisconsin governor to Reopen state
	28 April: Life in locked down Britain means fewer shopping trips but bigger bills
	1 May: German chancellor merkel announced the latest easing of coronavirus measures
		Machine-generated translation in english:
13. Bizarre, Funny and Fake News
	6 March: Pangolin meat and the coronavirus cure
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	9 March: Facebook, Twitter and Google to deal with false information concerning the coronavirus outbreak
		Machine-generated Translation in English:
	14 March: 'Flashmobs' in Italy to thanks coronavirus warriors
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	17 March: Iran has temporarily freed 85,000 Prisoners to combat the coronavirus
	18 March: Turkey detains 24 people accused of provocative social media posts
	23 March: South Africa's plan to erect a fence along the border with Zimbabwe
	1 April: India converting 20,000 railway carriages into isolation wards
	3 April: Scammers take advantage of the moment of crisis
	4 April: The government of Malaysia apologised after a campaign urging women to keep their husbands happy
	6 April: Fake video claiming that COVID-19 test kits are 'Contaminated'
	7 April: Turkish government spent more effort trying to curb information
	9 April: Scammers selling coronavirus vaccine and fake COVID-19 test kits
		Machine-generated translation in english:
	12 April: Colombian homoeopath has become popular on social media for his statements against the coronavirus
		Machine-generated translation in English:
	15 April: European police foiled an attempt to cheat german health authorities out of millions of euros by selling them nonexistent face masks
	18 April: Iran parades 'Coronavirus Radar' that can 'Detect Cases from 100 Yards' which looks similar to a fake 'Bomb detector' device
	22 April: Indonesia punishes coronavirus quarantine violators by locking them in 'Haunted Houses'
	24 April: Japan mayor under fire for 'Women Dawdle at Shops' remark
	26 April: France drastically limits the sale of nicotine products
	30 April: Misleading information has been spreading in india as the authorities attempt to control the coronavirus pandemic
Part IV: The Inferences
14. Country Sentiment for Coronavirus News
	The primary results
	The sentiment analysis for specific geographies
		Australia
		Brazil
		Britain
		Canada
		Chile
		China
		Colombia
		England
		Europe
		France
		Germany
		India
		Indonesia
		Iran
		Italy
		Japan
		Korea
		Malaysia
		Mexico
		New Zealand
		Norway
		Philippines
		Poland
		Singapore
		South Africa
		Sweden
		Turkey
		United States of America
15. COVID-19 Has Turned the World Upside Down
	The best countries in the world are not always the most prepared
	Supply chain efficiency was not all that good
	Globalisation is not a one-way street
	Leadership is not just about power and money alone
	There are stars other than those from sports and movies
	Rhetoric does not always work in crunch time situations
	Nature can strike back when it wants
	The coronavirus pandemic has been a great equaliser
	Growth is a treadmill that is running faster and faster
	The choice between democracy versus the one-party rule is situational on which works better
	Conventional thinking changes with new data points
	Reverse migration from cities to villages
	Crude oil prices are in the negative for the first time in history
	Notes
16. What Is Seen More Often in Coronavirus News?
	The Blame Game Between Countries and Even Non-Government Organisations
	Brazil's Response to the Coronavirus Threat
	Celebrity Connection with the Coronavirus
	Conspiracy Theories
	Employment Opportunities and the Impact of the Coronavirus on Unemployment
	A Geopolitical and Business Shift in the Future
	Globalisation Paused or Even Reversed
	Hoarding of Essential Commodities such as Food Items
	The Impact on Airlines, Travel, Tourism, Prepared Food and Hospitality industries
	The Oil Demand Slump and Volatility in Crude Prices
	Religion and the Role of Congregations in Spreading the Coronavirus
	Sports Events Cancellation and How the Coronavirus May Change Some Sports Forever
	Technology Can Help in Fighting the Coronavirus Pandemic
	Toilet Paper
	Traditional Medicines and the Efficacy of Treatment for the Coronavirus
	Trump and His Handling of the Coronavirus Crisis
	What is the Sentiment We See in This News?
	Notes
17. How Do We Use Sentiment Analysis? A Case Study
	Timing the virus: market timing possible with sentiment analysis?
	Indian markets
18. Conclusion
Index