Conflict networks in North and West Africa

Abbreviations and acronyms
Executive summary
Conflict and regional stability in North and West Africa
	How rivalries and alliances shape conflicts
	More enemies than allies
	Shifting allegiances
	Opposition and co-operation networks look alike
	A growing polarisation of conflict networks
	How military interventions reshuffle conflict networks
	Political options to achieve regional stability
		Protecting civilians should become a priority
		Communal and ethnic militias should be demilitarised
		Build regional alliances, promote space-based policies and support border regions
		Intervene militarily to keep warring parties apart rather than to take sides
		References
Violent organisations in conflict in North and West Africa
	The diversity of violent non-state organisations
	Relationships between violent non-state organisations
		Alliances
		Rivalries
		Internal factors of fragmentation
		External factors of fragmentation
	Exploring how networks affect conflict complexity
		Notes
		References
A  dynamic  analysis  of conflict networks in North and West Africa
	A network approach to alliances and rivalries
		Social network analysis
		Dynamic social network analysis
	Networks and conflict
		Balance within groups of actors
		Transitivity within groups of actors
		Centrality
	How to assess conflict networks in north and west africa
		A regional approach and disaggregated data
		A focus on organisations
		A focus on politically violent events
		Building opposition and co-operation networks
		Modelling dynamic networks
	Key metrics for conflict networks
		References
Networks of violence in North and West Africa
	Networked violence
	Sharing a common enemy, not a common goal
		A cosmopolitan network of enemies
		The changing structure of opposition
	Alliances without coalitions
		Fewer alliances than conflicts
		A sparse and decentralised network of allies
		The changing structure of alliances
	Conflicts that cannot end?
		References
Conflict networks and military interventions in North and West Africa
	Military interventions in North and West Africa
	How military interventions shape conflict networks
	A network approach to political power
	Operations Serval and Barkhane in the Sahel
		France’s interventions and militant groups
		Allies and enemies of French forces
		Operation Serval and political power in Mali
	The multinational offensive around Lake Chad
		The 2015 offensive against Boko Haram
		The MNJTF intervention against Boko Haram and ISWAP
		The MNJTF intervention and political power around Lake Chad
	NATO’s intervention and the western offensive in Libya
		NATOS’s Operation Unified Protector
		The Western Campaign
		NATO’s intervention and political power in Libya
		The Western Campaign and political power in Libya
	Learning from conflict networks
		Notes
References
Boxes
	Box 1.1A dynamic approach to conflict networks
	Box 2.1Conflict and borders in the Gulf of Guinea in the 1990s
	Box 2.2Violent, radical or Islamist organisations?
	Box 2.3Hezbollah and the crime-terrorism nexus
	Box 2.4Abdelmalek Droukdel
	Box 2.5Mokhtar Belmokhar
	Box 2.6Opportunistic shifts in Mali and Niger
	Box 3.1Clarifying terms
	Box 3.2Visualising signed networks
	Box 3.3Data processing
	Box 4.1Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM)
	Box 4.2Rivalries between Dogon and Fulani in Central Mali
	Box 4.3Ansaroul Islam
	Box 4.4Iyad ag Ghali
	Box 5.1Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
	Box 5.2Amadou Kouffa
	Box 5.3An application of balance theory to the Malian conflict
Figures
	Figure 1.1Rivalries and alliances in North and West Africa, 1997–2020
	Figure 1.2Simplified evolution of AQIM-related groups, 1992–2020
	Figure 1.3Opposition and co-operation networks in North and West Africa, 2020
	Figure 1.4The enemies of Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, 2020
	Figure 1.5Network density and centralisation in North and West Africa, 2000–20
	Figure 1.6How Serval and the MNJTF affected political power in Mali and the Lake Chad region
	Figure 1.7Organisations in conflict by region, 2020
	Figure 1.8Organisations in conflict by type in North and West Africa, 1997–2019
	Figure 1.9Rivalries and alliances between organisations in the Central Sahel, 2019
	Figure 3.1Sociograms showing different ways to represent social ties between nodes
	Figure 3.2Degree, eigenvector, betweenness and closeness centrality
	Figure 3.3Dynamic and static social network analysis
	Figure 3.4Balance theory
	Figure 3.5Transitivity
	Figure 3.6Spectral embedding showing Boko Haram and its enemies
	Figure 3.7Political independence
	Figure 3.8Violent events in North and West Africa by type, 1997–2020
	Figure 3.9Evolution of actors in North and West Africa by category, 1997–2019
	Figure 3.10Primary actors and associated actors
	Figure 3.11Opposition and co-operation networks
	Figure 3.12From isolated events to co-operative and conflictual relationships
	Figure 4.1Two levels of network analysis: The conflict environment and an organisation’s neighbourhood
	Figure 4.2Organisations in conflict in North and West Africa, 1997–2020
	Figure 4.3Opposition network in North and West Africa, 2020
	Figure 4.4Are the opposition networks rather centralised or decentralised?
	Figure 4.5Opposition network in Mali and the Central Sahel, 2020
	Figure 4.6Centrality for top-scoring organisations in Mali and the Central Sahel, 2020
	Figure 4.7JNIM and ISGS opposition network in the Central Sahel, 2020
	Figure 4.8Opposition network in the Lake Chad region, 2020
	Figure 4.9Centrality for top-scoring organisations in the Lake Chad region, 2020
	Figure 4.10Centrality for top-scoring organisations in conflict in Libya, 2020
	Figure 4.11Opposition network in Libya, 2020
	Figure 4.12Centralisation in networks
	Figure 4.13Opposition network density, 2009–20
	Figure 4.14Opposition network centralisation, 2009–20
	Figure 4.15Co-operative organisations in North and West Africa, 1997–2020
	Figure 4.16Co-operative organisations by actor and region, 2020
	Figure 4.17Co-operative actors by type in North and West Africa, 1997–2019
	Figure 4.18Are the co-operation networks rather centralised or decentralised?
	Figure 4.19Co-operation network in North and West Africa, 2020
	Figure 4.20Co-operation network in Mali and the Central Sahel, 2020
	Figure 4.21Centrality for top-scoring organisations in Mali and the Central Sahel, 2020
	Figure 4.22Co-operation network in the Lake Chad region, 2020
	Figure 4.23Centrality for top-scoring organisations in the Lake Chad region, 2020
	Figure 4.24Co-operation network in Libya, 2020
	Figure 4.25Centrality for top-scoring organisations in Libya, 2020
	Figure 4.26Alliance network density, 2009–20
	Figure 4.27Alliance network centralisation, 2009–20
	Figure 5.1What happens when an external power intervenes in a conflict?
	Figure 5.2How low and high Positive-Negative centrality scores relate to political power
	Figure 5.3Deaths related to military operations in Mali, Lake Chad and Libya
	Figure 5.4Events and fatalities in Mali and Central Sahel, 2012–20
	Figure 5.5French military forces and their allies in Mali and the Central Sahel, 2013–20
	Figure 5.6French military forces and their enemies in Mali and the Central Sahel, 2013–20
	Figure 5.7A schematic representation of alliances and conflicts in Mali
	Figure 5.8How France’s Operation Serval affected political power in Mali, 2012–15
	Figure 5.9Events and fatalities in the Lake Chad region, 2009–20
	Figure 5.10Fatalities involving Boko Haram/ISWAP, state forces and civilians, 2010–20
	Figure 5.11How the multinational intervention affected political power around Lake Chad, 2014–16
	Figure 5.12Events and fatalities in Libya, 2011–20
	Figure 5.13How NATO’s Operation Unified Protector affected political power in Libya, 2010–12
	Figure 5.14How Haftar’s Western Campaign affected political power in Libya, 2018–20
Maps
	Map 1.1Countries covered in this report
	Map 1.2Fatalities involving Boko Haram, ISWAP and government forces, 2009–20
	Map 3.1Location of case studies
	Map 4.1Areas of interest in Mali and Central Sahel, the Lake Chad region and Libya
	Map 4.2Rivalry and co-operation between JNIM and ISGS in the Central Sahel, 2018–20
	Map 4.3Clashes between LNA and GNA, 2018–20
	Map 5.1Major military interventions in North and West Africa, 1997–2020
Tables
	Table 2.1Types of violent organisations according to visibility and motivation
	Table 2.2Types of violent organisations according to visibility and legality
	Table 2.3Factors that lead to fragmentation among violent organisations
	Table 3.1Various terms used for positive and negative ties, outcomes and properties
	Table 3.2Number of violent events and fatalities in North and West Africa, by type, 1997–2020
	Table 3.3Number of actors in North and West Africa by category, 1997–2020
	Table 3.4Levels of analysis
	Table 3.5A double-entry table representing oppositional events between four actors
	Table 3.6A double-entry table representing co-operation events between four actors
	Table 3.7Events involving Libya’s Haftar Faction and the Shura Council of Mujahideen in Darnah
	Table 3.8ACLED events transformed into pairs of actors
	Table 3.9Questions and approaches to assessing social networks
	Table 3.10Selected metrics
	Table 4.1Characteristics of provincial and cosmopolitan social networks
	Table 4.2Composition and density of opposition networks by region, 2020
	Table 4.3Are the opposition networks rather provincial or cosmopolitan?
	Table 4.4Composition and density of co-operation networks by region, 2020
	Table 4.5Are the co-operation networks rather provincial or cosmopolitan?
	Table 5.1External interventions, impact on a conflict network and violence