Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies

Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies......Page 1
Title Page......Page 4
Copyright Info......Page 5
CONTENTS......Page 6
Acknowledgements......Page 8
Foreword by Butterfly Conservation Europe......Page 9
Context and objectives of a climatic risk atlas of European butterflies......Page 11
A. CLIMATE CHANGE, BIODIVERSITY, BUTTERFLIES, AND RISK ASSESSMENT......Page 12
A.1 Introduction: Butterflies as indicators......Page 13
A.2 Scenarios and biodiversity......Page 14
A.3 Climate change and Biodiversity Risk Assessment for butterflies......Page 15
B. METHODOLOGY......Page 18
B.2 Scenarios used to assess climate change risks for European Butterflies......Page 19
Climatic factors of butterfly distribution......Page 21
Modelling procedure......Page 22
Definitions of climate change risk categories for European butterflies......Page 25
Integrated overall risk categories for European species –integrating all scenarios and time steps......Page 26
C. CLIMATE RISKS OF EUROPEAN BUTTERFLY SPECIES......Page 28
C.1 Species inventory and taxonomy of European butterflies......Page 29
C.2 Climatic fate of individual species......Page 32
Hesperiidae......Page 33
Papilionidae......Page 105
Pieridae......Page 123
Lycaenidae......Page 187
Riodinidae......Page 341
Libytheidae......Page 343
Nymphalidae......Page 345
Danaidae......Page 619
C.3 Non-modelled European butterfly species......Page 621
C.4 Summary results......Page 630
D. DISCUSSION OF METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS......Page 634
General suitability of species distribution projections......Page 635
Approaches used in the present atlas......Page 637
D.2 Interaction of taxonomic status and modelling results......Page 646
Few false absences......Page 648
E. OUTLOOK: CLIMATE CHANGE AND BUTTERFLYCONSERVATION......Page 652
Habitats and trophic interactions......Page 653
Climate envelopes for European butterflies as a starting point for future research and conservation......Page 654
Climate change and evolution......Page 655
Biodiversity Risk Assessment......Page 656
Butterfly indicator developments......Page 657
Butterflies as climate change indicators......Page 658
E.3 Climate change and butterfly conservation......Page 659
F. APPENDICES, REFERENCES AND INDEX......Page 662
Appendix 1 – Model performance......Page 663
Appendix 2 – Scenario results......Page 675
Appendix 3: Risk category statistics of European butterflies under different scenarios......Page 697
References......Page 699
Species index (of modelled butterflies)......Page 707