Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity

Title Page......Page 1
Copyright......Page 2
Contents......Page 3
Preface......Page 6
Organization......Page 7
Fossil Fuel Outlook: Key Assumptions......Page 8
Exxon's Response in Science and Technology......Page 9
Summary and Conclusion......Page 11
Symbols......Page 12
Stationary Eddies vs. Transient Eddies......Page 14
Eddy Sensible Heat Flux......Page 15
Eddy Latent Heat Flux......Page 16
Role of Meridional Fluxes in Climate Sensitivity......Page 17
Components of the Vertical Flux......Page 18
Large-Scale Eddy Fluxes......Page 19
Role of Vertical fluxes in Climate Sensitivity......Page 20
General Circulation Models......Page 21
References......Page 22
Introduction......Page 24
Planetary Waves and Ice-Albedo Feedback......Page 25
Cloud-Surface Albedo Feedback......Page 26
Observed Relations between Mid-Latitude Waves and Tropical Convection......Page 28
The Minimum Correlation Map......Page 29
Composites of Extreme Events......Page 30
Conclusion......Page 31
References......Page 34
Introduction......Page 35
Model......Page 36
Transient Temperature Fields......Page 38
Summary......Page 42
References......Page 43
Introduction......Page 45
The 1981 Observations vis-a-vis Those From Earlier Expeditions......Page 46
Discussion......Page 50
References......Page 52
Models for the Intensity of Indian Ocean Monsoon Circulation Patterns......Page 54
Oceanic Circulation of the Modern Monsoon......Page 56
Plankton Patterns......Page 57
Past Monsoons......Page 58
Summary......Page 61
References......Page 62
Introduction......Page 64
Concept of Water Supply and Demand......Page 66
Vegetation Storage of Intercepted Precipitation and Dew......Page 69
Leaf Evapotranspiration......Page 70
Root Resistance......Page 71
Discussion and Conclusions......Page 74
Symbols......Page 75
References......Page 77
Introduction......Page 79
Experiments......Page 82
Global......Page 83
Latitudinal Z ones......Page 84
Geographical Results......Page 89
Discussion......Page 91
Conclusions......Page 95
References......Page 97
Introduction......Page 98
Model......Page 99
Vertical Eddy Fluxes and Diabatic Heating......Page 100
Water Conversions and Convection......Page 101
Infrared Radiation......Page 106
Solar Radiation......Page 107
Experiments......Page 108
Conclusions......Page 110
References......Page 112
The Standard EMB......Page 114
The TEC EBM......Page 115
The Two Phase Model......Page 116
3. Results for Solar and CO2 Forcing......Page 117
4. Comparison with Results from GCM Simulations......Page 119
5. Conclusions......Page 121
References......Page 122
Introduction......Page 124
Methods......Page 125
Aggregate Data......Page 126
Individual lake-level curves......Page 129
Discussion......Page 130
References......Page 134
CLIMATE SENSITIVITY: ANALYSIS OF FEEDBACK MECHANISMS......Page 136
Introduction......Page 137
Three-Dimensional Climate Model......Page 138
Global Mean Heat Balance and Temperature......Page 140
Global Temperature Changes......Page 141
1-D Analysis of Feedbacks in 3-D Experiments......Page 144
Simulated 18K Climate Patterns......Page 151
18K Feedback Factors......Page 155
18K Radiation Balance......Page 158
Conclusions from 18K Experiments......Page 159
Surface Response Time......Page 160
Impact on Empirically-Derived Climate Sensitivity......Page 163
Growing Gap Between Current and Equilibrium Climate......Page 165
Transient Climate Response......Page 166
Appendix A: Influence of Feedbacks on Transient Reponse......Page 167
References......Page 168
Model......Page 170
Transient Response......Page 172
Homogenization of Response Patterns at Low Frequency......Page 174
References......Page 176
Introduction......Page 177
The Radiative-Convective Model......Page 178
Adjoint Method of Sensitivity Analysis......Page 179
Results......Page 182
Summary and Conclusions......Page 184
References......Page 185
Physical factors determining the albedo of a plant canopy......Page 186
Albedo change from 18000 BP to present as an example of vegetation-albedo feedback......Page 188
Discussion......Page 190
References......Page 191
Introduction......Page 193
Snapshot Modeling......Page 194
The Altithermal Analog......Page 195
Warm Year Analogs in the Twentieth Century......Page 196
CO2 Forcing and Paleo-climatic Responses......Page 198
CO2 and Climatic Changes Since the Industrial Revolution......Page 199
Equilibrium versus Transient Models......Page 200
The Combined Greenhouse Effect of Trace Gases......Page 202
References......Page 205
Introduction......Page 208
Direct Measurements......Page 209
Indirect Methods......Page 210
References......Page 212
Introduction......Page 213
Ice Sheets and Glaciers......Page 214
Ice Sheet s......Page 217
Modification of the Atmosphere and Its ClimaticConsequences......Page 220
Climatic Warming-Interaction With the Cryosphere......Page 221
References......Page 224
2.1 Observations of Surface Albedos......Page 227
2.2 Arctic Cloud Data......Page 230
2.3 Cloud Cryosphere Associations......Page 231
3.1 Problems in Parameterization......Page 232
4. Conclusions......Page 235
References......Page 241
Introduction......Page 244
Characteristics of a Dynamic Sea Ice Cover Relevant to Climatic Change......Page 245
Forcing Fields......Page 246
Description of Hierarchy of Models......Page 247
Simulation Results......Page 248
Sensitivity of Sea Ice Models to Atmospheric Warming......Page 249
Effect of Ice I nteraction on Model Sensitivity......Page 251
Effects of Albedo Tuning on Thermo-Only Models......Page 253
Sensitivity of Air-Sea Heat Exchange......Page 254
Concluding Remarks......Page 255
Appendix: Sensitivity of Full Model to Dynamic and Oceanographic Parameterizations.......Page 256
References......Page 259
Introduction......Page 260
Model Description......Page 261
Results......Page 262
Spatial Maps......Page 263
Results at an Individual Point in the Weddell Sea......Page 264
Results Summed over the Hemisphere......Page 265
Ice Edge Response......Page 267
Comparison of Modeled Results with Observed Sea Ice Variability......Page 268
Final Discussion......Page 269
Introduction......Page 271
Marine Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves......Page 272
Fjord Glaciers......Page 273
Antarctica......Page 274
Summary and Recommendations......Page 277
References......Page 279
The Marine Instability......Page 281
The Reconstruction Scheme......Page 283
Running the Model......Page 285
Results......Page 287
References......Page 292
Introduction......Page 294
Periodicity and Persistency of 6 Fluctuations......Page 298
Climatic Significance of the 6 Cycles......Page 300
References......Page 301
Introduction......Page 305
Possible Causes for the Atmospheric CO2 Variations......Page 308
The 10 Be Record in the Dye 3 Ice Core......Page 309
Conclusions......Page 310
References......Page 311
Introduction......Page 313
North America......Page 314
Australia and New Zealand......Page 315
Polar Temperatures during the Last Interglacial: Relevance to Forecasts of CO2-Induced Climatic Warming......Page 316
References......Page 317
Introduction......Page 320
Contrast between a Thermodynamic and a Redfield Ocean......Page 321
The Kinetic Ocean......Page 322
Evidence from the Distributions of ECO2, NO3 and POt4 in Today's Sea......Page 324
Appendix A......Page 331
References......Page 332
The CO2-temperature Connection......Page 333
The CO2-nutrient Connection......Page 334
Cyclic Models of Ocean-Atmosphere Chemistry......Page 336
References......Page 342
The Models......Page 343
The Signals......Page 347
Box Model Results......Page 351
Summary and Conclusions......Page 354
References......Page 355
Introduction......Page 358
Effect of CCD on pCO2......Page 359
Effect of [Ca++] on pC0 2......Page 360
Effect of CaCO 3 /CH20 in particulate flux on pCO 2.......Page 361
Effect of [PO4 3 ] D on the atmospheric pCO 2......Page 362
Effect of TCO2D on pCO 2......Page 363
References......Page 364
Introduction......Page 366
Benthic Hydrography Near The Rio Grande Rise:Evidence For A 41 KYR Cycle......Page 368
References......Page 373