Climate, history, and the modern world

BOOK COVER......Page 1
HALF-TITLE......Page 2
DEDICATION......Page 3
TITLE......Page 4
COPYRIGHT......Page 5
CONTENTS......Page 6
ILLUSTRATIONS......Page 14
TABLES......Page 19
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 20
PREFACE......Page 23
PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION......Page 25
1  INTRODUCTION......Page 27
CLIMATE DEFINED......Page 34
EARLY WRITING ABOUT CLIMATE AND HISTORY......Page 35
CLIMATE VIEWED AS CONSTANT......Page 36
THE EFFECT ON RESEARCH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF KNOWLEDGE......Page 38
Part I  THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE......Page 46
HOW CLIMATE IS GENERATED: BASIC MATTERS......Page 47
THE HEAT SUPPLY......Page 48
THE WORLD’S WIND CIRCULATION......Page 50
WEATHER SYSTEMS......Page 53
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND POLLUTION BY THE WINDS......Page 57
VARIATIONS OF THE WIND CIRCULATION......Page 58
WORLD-WIDE RELATIONSHIPS OF WEATHER VARIATIONS......Page 60
TORNADOES......Page 62
TROPICAL STORMS, TYPHOONS......Page 63
SEASONAL CHANGES......Page 65
WORLD RAINFALL: DISTRIBUTION, SEASONAL CHANGES, MONSOONS......Page 68
VARIATIONS OF THE PREVAILING WINDS AND THEIR EFFECTS......Page 73
CHANGES IN THE OCEAN......Page 76
Volcanic dust in the atmosphere......Page 82
Astronomical cycles affecting the heat supply......Page 86
Cycles in the sun’s activity......Page 88
The heating pattern and reconstruction of past climates......Page 89
THE RAPIDITY OF SOME CLIMATIC CHANGES......Page 90
METEOROLOGICAL INSTRUMENT RECORDS......Page 93
Diaries, annals, chronicles, etc.......Page 99
Grain prices records......Page 105
Varieties of ‘fossil’ records showing yearly layers......Page 106
Radiocarbon and its role in dating evidence......Page 111
Pollen analysis and vegetation history......Page 112
Archaeology......Page 114
Tree rings......Page 116
Ocean bed deposits......Page 117
Part II  CLIMATE AND HISTORY......Page 124
THE ICE AGE WORLD AND THE PEOPLING OF THE AMERICAS AND AUSTRALIA......Page 125
THE RISING SEA LEVEL AND ITS EFFECTS......Page 128
HUMAN MIGRATIONS......Page 130
THE BEGINNINGS OF AGRICULTURE AND THE HERDING OF ANIMALS......Page 133
THE SHIFT OF THE VEGETATION ZONES AND THEIR FAUNAS, THE RANGES OF BIRDS AND OF FISH IN THE SEA......Page 134
THE WARMEST POST-GLACIAL TIMES IN NORTH AFRICA: THE MOIST SAHARA AND ITS ENDING; CONTEMPORARY CHANGES IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA......Page 135
THE WARMEST POST-GLACIAL TIMES: DEVELOPMENT OF THE DESERTS OF ASIA AND THE RIVER VALLEY CIVILIZATIONS......Page 138
THE INDUS VALLEY AND ITS CIVILIZATION......Page 143
ANCIENT CHINA......Page 144
THE SITUATION IN EUROPE AND OTHER NORTHERN REGIONS......Page 145
THE TURNING POINT IN POST-GLACIAL CLIMATE DEVELOPMENT......Page 151
RECORDS OF THE DOWN-TURN OF CLIMATE......Page 152
EFFECTS ON EUROPEAN LAKE SETTLEMENTS AND MINING IN THE MOUNTAINS......Page 158
EFFECTS IN NORTHERN LANDS......Page 159
EFFECTS IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND HITHER ASIA......Page 160
EFFECTS IN CHINA......Page 161
COMPARISONS WITH LOW AND HIGH LATITUDES......Page 162
DETAILS FROM NORTHWEST EUROPE......Page 163
THE TIME OF BIRTH OF GREAT RELIGIONS......Page 165
THE MEDITERRANEAN WORLD IN ROMAN TIMES......Page 167
LINKS WITH THE EAST: TIMES OF TRADE AND OF MIGRATIONS......Page 170
CRITICAL DISEASE EPIDEMICS......Page 172
SEA LEVEL AND COASTAL CHANGES IN NORTHERN EUROPE......Page 173
THE CLIMATIC SEQUENCE IN EUROPE THROUGH THE FIRST MILLENNIUM AD......Page 175
THE SEQUENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND FARTHER SOUTH......Page 178
THE TROPICAL FOREST LANDS: CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA......Page 179
ASYMMETRY OF THE MEDIEVAL WARMTH OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE......Page 181
THE MEDIEVAL SEQUENCE IN NORTHERN EUROPE AND THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC......Page 182
THE PEAK OF MEDIEVAL WARMTH IN EUROPE......Page 186
THE CONTEMPORARY SCENE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN, EASTERN EUROPE AND ASIA......Page 191
THE SEQUENCE IN NORTH AMERICA AND SOME COMPARISONS......Page 194
THE DOWN-TURN OF CLIMATE IN THE ARCTIC......Page 196
HOW EUROPE WAS FIRST AFFECTED: STORMS......Page 198
COOLING AND WETNESS IN EARLY FOURTEENTH-CENTURY EUROPE......Page 203
A TIME OF DISEASES......Page 207
DESERTION OF FARMS AND VILLAGE SETTLEMENTS......Page 208
THE SEQUENCE IN THE NORTH OF EUROPE: NORWAY, DENMARK, SCOTLAND......Page 209
CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EUROPE......Page 213
DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA AND INDIA......Page 215
THE SEQUENCE IN NORTH AMERICA: HOW THE PRE-EUROPEAN CULTURES WERE AFFECTED......Page 216
THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY......Page 218
THE CHANGES IN CENTRAL EUROPE: 1500s TO 1800s......Page 219
ICELAND AND THE ARCTIC FRINGE......Page 223
GREAT STORMS AND COASTAL FLOODS IN EUROPE......Page 224
EFFECTS IN SCOTLAND......Page 225
SCANDINAVIA AND FINLAND......Page 229
FISHERIES AND THE SEAFARING NATIONS OF NORTHERN EUROPE......Page 233
HARVESTS AND HEALTH IN ENGLAND......Page 234
THE VARIABILITY OF WEATHER IN THE LITTLE ICE AGE......Page 235
NOTABLE WINTERS AND SUMMERS IN EUROPE......Page 236
ARTISTS’ IMPRESSIONS......Page 238
SOUTHERN EUROPE, NORTH AFRICA AND INDIA......Page 239
THE FAR EAST......Page 242
NORTH AMERICA IN THE SIXTEENTH AND SEVENTEENTH CENTURIES......Page 246
SOME ASPECTS OF THE LITTLE ICE AGE WORLD......Page 248
WARMING SETS IN ERRATICALLY......Page 249
DEVELOPMENTS IN AGRICULTURE......Page 250
FURTHER CLIMATE DISTURBANCE IN THE LATE EIGHTEENTH AND EARLY NINETEENTH CENTURIES......Page 251
CHARLES DICKENS AND THE ARTISTS AS CLIMATE REPORTERS......Page 254
TOWARDS THE MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE GREAT RECESSION OF THE GLACIERS......Page 255
THE IRISH POTATO FAMINE......Page 257
MID-NINETEENTH CENTURY IN THE UNITED STATES......Page 258
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CENTURY......Page 259
THE TWENTIETH-CENTURY WARMTH......Page 264
Part III  CLIMATE IN THE MODERN WORLD AND QUESTIONS OVER THE FUTURE......Page 269
VARIABILITY INCREASES......Page 270
COOLING IN THE ARCTIC......Page 274
WORLD TEMPERATURE......Page 276
EFFECTS ON RAINFALL......Page 277
EFFECTS ON GLACIERS, ICE-SHEETS AND SEA LEVEL......Page 281
MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD CLIMATE......Page 282
GENERAL INTRODUCTION......Page 285
IMPACTS OF THE FIRST ORDER......Page 288
MORE COMPLEX CONSEQUENCES......Page 290
EFFECTS ON GRAIN HARVESTS......Page 293
DETAILS FROM SWITZERLAND IN THE EIGHTEENTH CENTURY......Page 298
THE TIME AROUND 1816......Page 299
FOOD SHORTAGES IN MODERN TIMES......Page 301
THE EXPERIENCE OF 1972......Page 307
TECHNOLOGY, CLIMATE AND FOOD SUPPLY......Page 309
CLIMATE AND DISEASE OUTBREAKS......Page 312
THE IMPACTS OF FLOODING AND BITTER WINTERS......Page 315
OTHER ASPECTS......Page 317
GENERAL......Page 319
VARIATIONS OF THE SUN......Page 320
VARIATIONS IN THE EARTH’S ORBIT......Page 322
VOLCANIC DUST IN THE ATMOSPHERE......Page 323
VARIATIONS OF THE CIRCULATION AND HEAT DISTRIBUTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEANS......Page 327
DEVICES TO ALTER THE CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT......Page 329
THE INCREASE OF CARBON DIOXIDE......Page 332
OTHER EFFLUENTS FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES......Page 335
THE NET EFFECT......Page 336
EFFECTS IN INDUSTRIAL AND URBAN AREAS......Page 339
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY WEATHER FORECASTING......Page 344
LONGER-TERM FORECASTING......Page 345
CLUSTERS OF LIKE YEARS......Page 347
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE......Page 348
CYCLICAL DEVELOPMENTS......Page 349
FORECASTS OF THE NATURAL CLIMATE......Page 351
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY AND POLICY DECISIONS......Page 356
CONCLUDING SUMMARY......Page 363
PERCEPTION AND RESPONSE......Page 366
APPROACHES TO CLIMATE FORECASTING AND THEIR USEFULNESS......Page 368
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS NEEDED TO IMPROVE KNOWLEDGE......Page 371
THE LESSONS OF HISTORY......Page 373
THE NEED FOR FLEXIBILITY, DIVERSIFICATION AND MARGINS OF SAFETY IN AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY POLICY......Page 374
THE CHALLENGES OF TODAY AND THE FUTURE: WATCHFULNESS, UNDERSTANDING AND REALISM......Page 376
THE MID-TWENTIETH-CENTURY COOLING......Page 379
THE UNRELENTING GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S HUMAN POPULATION......Page 380
THE MORE OR LESS WORLD-WIDE WARMTH OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY, EXCEEDING THAT OF MOST RECENT CENTURIES......Page 381
THE DEVELOPING OZONE HOLES......Page 382
POLLUTION......Page 383
WINDINESS AND STORMS......Page 384
RECURRING OSCILLATIONS IN LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS......Page 386
4 HOW CLIMATE COMES TO FLUCTUATE AND CHANGE......Page 388
5 HOW WE CAN RECONSTRUCT THE PAST RECORD OF CLIMATE......Page 389
6 CLIMATE AT THE DAWN OF HISTORY......Page 390
9 ROMAN TIMES AND AFTER......Page 391
11 DECLINE AGAIN IN THE LATE MIDDLE AGES......Page 392
12 THE LITTLE ICE AGE......Page 394
13 THE RECOVERY, 1700 TO AROUND 1950......Page 396
14 CLIMATE SINCE 1950......Page 397
15 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC DEVELOPMENTS ON HUMAN AFFAIRS AND HUMAN HISTORY......Page 398
16 THE CAUSES OF CLIMATE’S FLUCTUATIONS AND CHANGES......Page 401
17 FORECASTING......Page 403
18 WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?......Page 407
SPECIFIC TOPICS......Page 408
ADDITIONAL FURTHER READING FOR THE SECOND EDITION......Page 409
INDEX......Page 410