Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future

Preface xi
Prologue 1
Weather and Climate 1
The Climate System 2
Climate Change: Separating Facts from Fears 5
Thinking About the Future in the Face of Uncertainty 8
The Story 9
PART I. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
1. The Atmosphere 13
The Composition of Air 13
The Compressibility and Pressure of Air 15
Mechanisms of Heat and Mass Transfer 16
The Thermal and Compositional Layering of the Atmosphere 21
The General (Global) Circulation of the Atmosphere 29
Key Points in This Chapter 40
2. The World Ocean 43
Important Properties of Water 44
The Ocean’s Layered Structure 49
The Ocean’s Surface Currents 53
Global Flows of Water Through the Ocean 57
The Hydrological Cycle 63
Key Points in This Chapter 65
3. Ocean– Atmosphere Interactions 69
Exchanges at the Ocean– Atmosphere Interface 69
The El Niño– Southern Oscillation 71
Other Modes of Ocean and Atmosphere Variability 88
Key Points in This Chapter 97
4. The Carbon Cycle and How It Influences Climate 101
Reservoirs of Carbon 104
The Carbon Cycle 105
The Acidification of the Ocean 118
Uncertainties in the Carbon Cycle 126
Key Points in This Chapter 128
PART II. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS DRIVERS
5. The Concept of Radiation Balance, a Scientific Framework for Thinking About Climate Change 133
Electromagnetic Radiation 136
The Greenhouse Effect 142
Earth’s Radiation Balance 143
Geographical and Seasonal Variations in Energy Balance 152
Key Points in This Chapter 160
6. Radiative Forcing, Feedbacks, and Some Other Characteristics of the Climate System 163
Radiative Forcing 163
Greenhouse Gases as Forcing Factors 164
Aerosols 171
Land- Use Change 174
Natural Forcing Factors 175
Feedbacks 182
Tipping Points 188
Committed Warming 189
Key Points in This Chapter 190
7. Learning from the Climate of the Distant Past 193
The Ice Age and Paleoclimatology 193
Earth’s Orbital Characteristics and Milankovitch Theory 197
Five Million Years of Climate 202
One Hundred Thousand Years of Climate Change 211
A Lesson from the Distant Past: The Paleocene– Eocene Thermal Maximum 220
Key Points in This Chapter 224
PART III. CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
8. The Climate of the Recent Past and Impacts on Human History 229
Climate Proxies 229
Early to Mid- Holocene Climate Change and Human Development 238
The Rise and Fall of Civilizations 246
Key Points in This Chapter 260
9. Observing the Change 265
A Century of Warming 266
Precipitation and Drought 275
Why Some Water Supplies Are in Jeopardy 283
Severe Storms and Other Extreme Events 284
The Sensitive Arctic 290
Key Points in This Chapter 302
10. Greenland, Antarctica, and Sea- Level Rise 305
Recent Sea- Level Rise and the Factors Contributing to It 306
The Greenland Ice Sheet 313
The Antarctic Ice Sheets 318
Future Sea-Level Rise 321
Key Points in This Chapter 328
PART IV. THE FUTURE
11. Climate Models and the Future 333
What Are Climate Models? 334
Peering into the Future 346
Responding to Our Climate Future 351
Key Points in This Chapter 352
12. Climate Change Risk in an Unknowable Future 355
Climate– Emissions Uncertainties 355
What Is Risk? 357
Some Properties of Climate Change Risk 360
Climate Change and Human Strife 365
Key Points in This Chapter 372
13. Energy and the Future 375
Electricity Circa 2017 377
Coal: A Vast Enterprise 380
Natural Gas: A Bridge Fuel? 390
The Nuclear Option 395
Wind and Solar Power: Icons for the Future 404
What About Hydropower? 413
Intermittent Power and the Electrical Grid 416
Key Points in This Chapter 418
Epilogue 421
Notes 425
Glossary 453
Bibliography 463
Index 489