Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Introduction......Page 13
Acknowledgements......Page 17
1 An introduction to climate change......Page 19
1.1 Weather or climate......Page 20
1.2 The greenhouse effect......Page 21
1.3 The carbon cycle......Page 28
1.4 Natural changes in the carbon cycle......Page 38
1.5 Pacemaker of the glacial–interglacial cycles......Page 40
1.6 Non-greenhouse influences on climate......Page 46
1.7 The water cycle, climate change and biology......Page 49
1.8 From theory to reality......Page 51
1.9 References......Page 53
2 Principal indicators of past climates......Page 55
2.1.1 Tree-ring analysis (dendrochronology)......Page 57
2.1.2 Isotopic dendrochronology......Page 61
2.1.3 Leaf shape (morphology)......Page 63
2.1.4 Leaf physiology......Page 64
2.1.5 Pollen and spore analysis......Page 65
2.1.6 Species as climate proxies......Page 68
2.2.1 38O isotope analysis of forams and corals......Page 71
2.2.2 Alkenone analysis......Page 76
2.3.1 Isotopic analysis of water......Page 77
2.3.3 Carbon dioxide and methane records as palaeoclimatic forcing agents......Page 79
2.4 Other indicators......Page 81
2.6 Conclusions......Page 82
2.7 References......Page 83
3.1.1 The pre-biotic Earth (4.6–3.8 bya)......Page 85
3.1.2 The early biotic Earth (3.8–2.3 bya)......Page 86
3.2.1 Earth in the anaerobic–aerobic transition (2.6–1.7 bya)......Page 89
3.2.2 The aerobic Earth (from 1.7 bya)......Page 92
3.3.1 Late-Ordovician extinction (455–435 mya)......Page 95
3.3.2 Late-Devonian extinction (365–363.5 mya)......Page 96
3.3.3 Vascular plants and the atmospheric depletion of carbon dioxide (350–275 mya)......Page 97
3.3.4 Permo–Carboniferous glaciation (330–250 mya)......Page 99
3.3.5 End-Permian extinction (251 mya)......Page 101
3.3.6 End-Triassic extinction (205 mya)......Page 103
3.3.7 Toarcian (early (late lower) Jurassic) extinction (183 mya)......Page 104
3.3.8 Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction (65.5 mya)......Page 105
3.3.9 Eocene climatic maximum (55–54.8 mya)......Page 108
3.3.10 Eocene–Oligocene extinction (approximately 35 mya; or 33.9 mya?)......Page 119
3.3.11 Late Miocene expansion of C4 grasses (14–9 mya)......Page 121
3.4 Summary......Page 126
3.5 References......Page 127
4.1 The Oligocene (33.9–23.03 mya)......Page 131
4.2 The end Miocene (9–5.3 mya)......Page 133
4.3 The Pliocene (5.3 –1.8 mya)......Page 134
4.4 The current ice age......Page 138
4.5.1 Overview of temperature, carbon dioxide and timing......Page 144
4.5.2 Ice and sea level......Page 147
4.5.3 Temperature changes within the glacial......Page 148
4.5.4 Biological and environmental impacts of the last glacial......Page 159
4.6.1 Previous interglacials......Page 166
4.6.2 The Allerød, Bølling and Younger Dryas (14 600–11 600 years ago)......Page 170
4.6.3 The Holocene (11 500 years ago – the Industrial Revolution)......Page 177
4.6.4 Biological response to the last glacial, LGM and Holocene transition......Page 186
4.7 Summary......Page 196
4.8 References......Page 197
5.1.1 The latter half of the Little Ice Age......Page 202
5.1.2 Twentieth-century climate......Page 206
5.1.4 The Holocene interglacial beyond the twenty-first century......Page 207
5.1.5 Holocene summary......Page 209
5.2.1 Climatic impacts on early human civilisations......Page 211
5.2.2 The Little Ice Age’s human impact......Page 212
5.2.3 Increasing twentieth-century human climatic insulation......Page 218
5.3.1 IPCC Business as Usual......Page 219
5.3.2 Uncertainties and the IPCC’s conclusions......Page 231
5.4.1 Carbon dioxide......Page 240
5.4.2 Methane......Page 244
5.4.3 Halocarbons......Page 245
5.5 References......Page 246
6.1.1 Current boreal dendrochronological response......Page 249
6.1.2 Current tropical-rainforest response......Page 251
6.1.3 Some biological dimensions of the climatic-change fingerprint......Page 253
6.1.4 Phenology......Page 256
6.1.5 Biological communities and species shift......Page 258
6.2 Case study: climate and natural systems in the USA......Page 271
6.3 Case study: climate and natural systems in the UK......Page 282
Low-to-medium vulnerability......Page 284
High vulnerability......Page 285
Unknown vulnerability......Page 286
6.4 Biological response to greenhouse trends beyond the twenty-first century......Page 293
6.5.1 Extreme weather events......Page 294
6.5.2 Greenhouse gases......Page 297
6.5.3 Sea-level rise......Page 298
6.5.4 Methane hydrates (methane clathrates)......Page 307
6.5.5 Volcanoes......Page 311
6.5.6 Oceanic and atmospheric circulation......Page 314
6.5.7 Ocean acidity......Page 319
6.5.8 The probability of surprises......Page 322
6.6 References......Page 323
7.1.1 Population and environmental impact......Page 328
7.1.2 Past and present population......Page 337
7.1.3 Future population......Page 340
7.1.4 Food......Page 343
7.1.5 Impact on other species......Page 345
7.2 Energy supply......Page 348
7.2.1 Energy supply – the historical context......Page 349
7.2.2 Future energy supply......Page 355
7.3 Human health and climate change......Page 361
7.3.1 Health and weather extremes......Page 363
7.3.2 Climate change and disease......Page 371
7.3.3 Flooding and health......Page 379
7.4.1 Past and present food security......Page 386
7.4.2 Future food security and climate change......Page 389
7.5 The biology of reducing anthropogenic climate change......Page 395
7.5.1 Terrestrial photosynthesis and soil carbon......Page 396
7.5.2 Manipulating marine photosynthesis......Page 401
7.5.3 Biofuels......Page 402
7.6 Summary and conclusions......Page 405
7.7 References......Page 406
8.1.1 UN Conference on the Human Environment (1972)......Page 410
8.1.2 The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth (1972)......Page 413
8.1.3 World Climate Conference (1979)......Page 414
8.1.4 The World Conservation Strategy (1980)......Page 415
8.1.5 The Brandt Report – Common Crisis North-South (1980)......Page 416
8.1.6 The Brundtland, World Commission on Environment and Development Report (1987)......Page 417
8.1.7 United Nations’ Conference on the Environment and Development - Rio de Janeiro (1992)......Page 418
8.1.8 The Kyoto Protocol (1997)......Page 419
8.1.9 Johannesburg Summit – UNCED+10 (2002)......Page 421
8.1.10 Post 2002......Page 423
8.2 Energy sustainability and carbon (global)......Page 424
8.2.1 Prospects for savings from changes in land use......Page 427
8.2.2 Prospects for savings from improvements in energy efficiency......Page 428
8.2.3 Prospects for fossil-carbon savings from renewable energy......Page 432
8.2.4 Prospects for carbon-capture technology......Page 433
8.2.5 Prospects for nuclear options......Page 437
8.2.6 Overall prospects for fossil-carbon savings to 2025......Page 441
8.3 Energy policy and carbon......Page 443
8.3.1 Case history: USA......Page 444
8.3.2 Case history: UK......Page 449
8.3.3 Case history: China and India......Page 457
8.4.1 Managing fossil-carbon emissions – the scale of the problem......Page 463
8.4.2 Fossil futures......Page 465
8.4.3 Nuclear futures......Page 466
8.4.4 Renewable futures......Page 467
8.4.5 Low-energy futures......Page 468
8.4.6 Possible future energy options and greenhouse gases......Page 469
8.5 Future human and biological change......Page 471
8.5.1 The ease and difficulty of adapting to future impacts......Page 475
8.5.2 Future climate change and human health......Page 479
8.5.3 Future climate and human-ecology implications for wildlife......Page 480
8.5.4 Reducing future anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions......Page 482
8.5.5 A final conclusion......Page 483
8.6 References......Page 484
Glossary......Page 487
Abbreviations......Page 490
Appendix 2 Bio-geological chronology......Page 493
Calculations of energy demand/supply......Page 496
Sources......Page 497
 Appendix 4 The IPCC 2007 report......Page 498
References......Page 499
Index......Page 500