Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth

Front Cover
Climate Change
Climate Change
Copyright
Contents
Contributors
Preface to Third Edition
I - Introduction
	1 - Global warming—a complex situation
		1. Introduction
		2. The greenhouse effect and global warming
		3. Feedback mechanisms to further increase the heating of the planet
		4. Our present situation
		5. Urgent action is required
		6. Global warming, climate change, and the new pandemic—COVID-19
		7. Why is the world so slow in overcoming global warming?
		8. Social and ethical impacts of climate change
		9. What can we do?
		10. Conclusion
		References
	2 - Greenhouse gases and the emerging climate emergency
		1. Introduction
		2. Myths about the greenhouse effect
		3. Origin of the greenhouse effect: “primary” and “secondary” effects
		4. The physical properties of greenhouse gases
		5. Interpretation of data for the properties of greenhouse gases
		6. What has changed in the past decade?
			6.1 Have public perceptions of greenhouse gases changed?
			6.2 What should we do?
				6.2.1 Easy to implement
				6.2.2 Moderately difficult to implement
				6.2.3 Incredibly difficult to implement
		Acknowledgments
		References
II - Tools used to investige and predict climate change
	3 - Climate change through Earth history
		1. Introduction
		2. Climate models
		3. Long-term climate trends
		4. Early climate history
		5. Phanerozoic glaciations
		6. The Mesozoic—early Cenozoic greenhouse
		7. Development of the Cenozoic icehouse
		8. Astronomical modulation of climate
		9. Milankovitch cyclicity in Quaternary (Pleistocene) climate history
		10. Quaternary sub-Milankovitch cyclicity
		11. The Holocene
		12. Climate of the Anthropocene
		13. Conclusions
		References
	4 - Numerical modeling of the global climate and carbon cycle system
		1. Introduction
		2. Numerical modeling for climate and the earth system
			2.1 History
			2.2 Model structure and experimental choices
				2.2.1 Model resolution
				2.2.2 Model complexity
				2.2.3 Ensemble size and simulation duration
					2.2.3.1 Initial condition ensembles, or “grand ensembles”
					2.2.3.2 Perturbed parameter ensembles
					2.2.3.3 Multimodel ensembles
					2.2.3.4 Long extended simulations
			2.3 State of the art
		3. Modeling the global carbon cycle
			3.1 The carbon cycle and why it matters
			3.2 Carbon cycle modeling
			3.3 Compatible emissions and carbon budgets
		4. Summary and conclusions
			Glossary
		References
III - Indicators
	5 - Global surface temperatures
		1. Introduction
		2. Basic data availability
		3. Analyses of land surface air temperature
		4. Analyses of sea surface temperature
		5. Global changes
		6. Uncertainty quantification
		7. Characterization of extremes and variability
		8. Future research directions
		9. Conclusions
		References
	6 - Arctic sea ice
		1. Introduction
		2. Observed changes in the state of arctic sea ice
			2.1 Sea ice extent and concentration
			2.2 Sea ice thickness and volume
			2.3 Sea ice drift
			2.4 Sea ice age
			2.5 Length of melt season
		3. Classifying and comprehending the observed changes
		4. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	7 - Antarctic sea ice changes and their implications
		1. Introduction
		2. Why Antarctic ice is different
		3. Snow on the ice
		4. The annual ice cycle and its changes
		5. What is happening to the ice?
		6. Response of the Antarctic to changes elsewhere
		References
	8 - Land ice: indicator, and integrator, of climate change
		1. Introduction
			1.1 Geographical context
			1.2 Anatomy of an ice sheet
			1.3 Land ice and sea level
		2. Mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets
			2.1 Surface mass balance
			2.2 Ice dynamics
		3. Long-term behavior
			3.1 Glacial–interglacial cycles
			3.2 Holocene variability
		4. Observations of recent changes
			4.1 Glaciers and ice caps
			4.2 Ice sheets
		5. Concluding remarks
		References
	9 - Glaciers and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Observing glacier change
		3. Components and drivers of glacier mass change
			3.1 Surface processes
			3.2 Marine- and lake-terminating glaciers
		4. Mass balance feedbacks
			4.1 Mass balance–elevation feedback
			4.2 Other feedbacks
		5. Recent glacier changes
			5.1 Global trends
			5.2 Regional trends
			5.3 Anomalous glacier behavior
		6. Future glacier changes
		7. Concluding remarks
		Acknowledgments
		References
	10 - Poleward expansion of the atmospheric circulation
		1. Introduction
		2. The general circulation of the atmosphere
		3. Evidence for circulation change
			3.1 The widening tropics
			3.2 Indicators of tropical width
			3.3 The decreasing intensity of the tropical circulation
			3.4 Extratropical circulation change
			3.5 Magnitude of past and future trends
		4. Cause for circulation change
			4.1 Direct versus indirect effects
			4.2 Natural and anthropogenic sea surface temperature variations
			4.3 Tropical sea surface temperature variations
			4.4 Extratropical sea surface temperature variations
			4.5 Structure of sea surface temperature variations
			4.6 Arctic temperature change
			4.7 Greenhouse gas increases
			4.8 Depletion and recovery of stratospheric ozone
			4.9 Solar variability
			4.10 Natural and anthropogenic aerosol
			4.11 Linearity of the response
		5. Emerging dynamical mechanisms
			5.1 Relationship between circulation, clouds, and radiation
			5.2 Stratospheric linkages
			5.3 Tropopause heights
			5.4 Static stability
			5.5 Tropical push
			5.6 Extratropical pull
		6. Summary, outstanding problems, and conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	11 - Rising sea levels as an indicator of global change
		1. Introduction
		2. Is sea level rising?
		3. Why is sea level rising?
		4. Are contemporary rates of sea level rise unusual?
		5. Conclusion
		Acknowledgments
		References
	12 - Ocean current changes
		1. Role of the ocean currents in the climate system
			1.1 Drivers of the ocean currents
			1.2 Variable ocean
			1.3 Observing a variable ocean
			1.4 Modeling a variable ocean
		2. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
			2.1 Observing and modeling the AMOC
			2.2 AMOC variability
			2.3 Past AMOC
			2.4 Present AMOC
			2.5 Future—why should the AMOC change under climate change?
			2.6 Possible influences of a changing AMOC
		3. Conclusions
		References
	13 - Ocean acidification and climate change
		1. Introduction
			1.1 Carbonate chemistry
			1.2 Combined impacts of ocean acidification and climate change
		2. Evidence from observations
			2.1 Evidence from geological and ice core records
			2.2 Evidence from long-term oceanographic time series
			2.3 Evidence from oceanographic cruises
		3. Model predictions of future change
		4. Impacts
			4.1 Past observations
			4.2 Current observations
			4.3 Experimental observations
			4.4 Combined impacts
		5. Biogeochemical cycling and feedback to climate
			5.1 Changes to the ocean carbon cycle
			5.2 Changes to ocean nutrient cycles
			5.3 Changes to flux of other climate reactive gases from the ocean
		6. Adaptation, recovery, and mitigation
			6.1 Adaptation
			6.2 Recovery
			6.3 Mitigation
		7. Conclusion
		References
	14 - Permafrost and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Characteristics of permafrost
			2.1 Thermal and physical properties
			2.2 Ground ice
			2.3 Thickness and spatial distribution
			2.4 Buffer layer
			2.5 Active layer
			2.6 Permafrost table and ice table
			2.7 Transition zone
			2.8 Ground thermal regime
			2.9 Permafrost dynamics
			2.10 Permafrost history
		3. Observed trends in recent permafrost conditions
			3.1 Permafrost temperature
				3.1.1 Introduction: the effects of depth and timescales
				3.1.2 Observations
				3.1.3 Causes
			3.2 Active-layer thickness (ALT)
				3.2.1 Introduction: the effects of interannual variability and ice
				3.2.2 Observations
				3.2.3 Causes
			3.3 Permafrost degradation
				3.3.1 Introduction: timescales of ground warming and thawing
				3.3.2 Observations
				3.3.3 Causes
		4. Impacts of recent changes in permafrost
			4.1 Built environments
				4.1.1 Soil bearing capacity
				4.1.2 Thaw settlement
				4.1.3 Frost heave
				4.1.4 Interactions between the built environment and climate
				4.1.5 Financial costs
			4.2 Natural environments
				4.2.1 Terrain disturbance
				4.2.2 Hydrology
				4.2.3 Ecology
				4.2.4 Biogeochemistry
				4.2.5 Disease
		5. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	15 - The jet stream and climate change
		1. Introduction
			1.1 Jet streams
			1.2 Jet streams and Rossby waves
			1.3 Natural variability of the jet streams
			1.4 The jet stream, Rossby waves, and weather
				1.4.1 Autumn/winter
				1.4.2 Summer
		2. Expected changes with climate change
			2.1 Jet streams
			2.2 Rossby waves and associated extreme weather
				2.2.1 Autumn/winter
				2.2.2 Summer
		3. Observed changes
			3.1 Jet streams
			3.2 Rossby waves and associated weather extremes
		4. Future impacts of changing jets
			4.1 Persistent weather regimes and extreme weather
			4.2 More clear-air turbulence for aircraft
		5. Summary
		References
	16 - Extreme weather and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Temperature extremes
		3. Precipitation extremes
		4. Tropical cyclones
		5. Conclusions
		References
	17 - Bird ecology
		1. Introduction
		2. Indicators of change
			2.1 Range
				2.1.1 Size and position of breeding ranges
				2.1.2 Ranges during the nonbreeding season
			2.2 Migration
				2.2.1 Timing of migration to the breeding grounds
				2.2.2 Timing of migration from the breeding grounds
				2.2.3 Migration routes and wintering areas
				2.2.4 Partial migration
				2.2.5 Eruptions
			2.3 Reproduction
				2.3.1 Onset of breeding period
				2.3.2 Length of breeding period
				2.3.3 Breeding success
				2.3.4 Sexual selection
			2.4 Morphology
			2.5 Diseases
		3. Conclusions
		References
	18 - Insect communities
		1. Introduction
		2. Range changes
			2.1 Range changes—life history
			2.2 Range changes—environmental factors and resource availability
			2.3 Range changes and adaptation
		3. Changes in phenology
			3.1 Phenology changes—mismatches
			3.2 Phenology changes—generations and abundance
			3.3 Phenology and adaptation
		4. Physiology
		5. Responses to other climatic variables
			5.1 Responses to precipitation
			5.2 Responses to CO2 levels
			5.3 Interactive effects of warming, precipitation, and CO2
		6. Insect communities under climate change
		7. Conclusion
		References
	19 - Sea life (pelagic ecosystems)
		1. Pelagic and planktonic ecosystems
			1.1 Sensitivity of pelagic and planktonic ecosystems to climate and global change
			1.2 Marine and terrestrial biological responses to climate and global change
			1.3 Ocean acidification and other anthropogenic influences on pelagic and planktonic ecosystems
		2. Observed impacts on pelagic and planktonic ecosystems
			2.1 Biogeographical changes and northward shifts
			2.2 Life cycle events and pelagic phenology
			2.3 Plankton abundance and pelagic productivity
			2.4 Pelagic biodiversity and invasive species
		3. Conclusion and summary of key indicators
		References
	20 - Changes in coral reef ecosystems as an indication of climate and global change
		1. Introduction
		2. Tropical coral reef ecosystems
		3. Coral reef fishes
		4. Conclusion
		References
	21 - Marine biodiversity and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Climate change in the oceans
		3. Effects of climate change on marine biodiversity
			3.1 Local scale
			3.2 Regional scale
			3.3 Global scale
			3.4 Other factors relating to climate change
		4. Cumulative impacts and indirect effects of climate change
		5. Biodiversity as insurance against climate change impacts
		6. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	22 - Intertidal indicators of climate and global change
		1. Introduction
		2. Climate change and biogeography
			2.1 Using long-term data sets to detect climate change
			2.3 Biogeographic responses of intertidal biota
				2.2.1 Europe
				2.2.2 Arctic
				2.2.3 United States
				2.2.4 Southern hemisphere
				2.2.5 South Africa
				2.2.6 Asia
			2.3 Extreme weather events
				2.3.1 Interactions
		3. Mechanisms and microclimate
			3.1 Physiology
			3.2 Reproduction and recruitment
			3.3 Modeling
		4. Additional impacts of global change
			4.1 Ocean acidification
			4.2 Coastal zone development
			4.3 Climate change and nonnative species
		5. Conclusions
		Acknowledgments
		References
	23 - Lichens as an indicator of climate and global change
		1. Introduction
		2. Predicted effects
		3. Observed effects
		4. Uncertain effects
		5. Habitats with vulnerable lichens
			5.1 Low-level islands with endemic lichens
			5.2 Extended regions with similar climate but local endemism
			5.3 The (Ant-)Arctic and tundra regions
			5.4 High ground in the tropics
		References
	24 - Plant pathogens as indicators of climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Climatic variables and plant disease
		3. Evidence that simulated climate change affects plant disease in experiments
		4. Evidence that plant disease patterns have changed due to climate change
		Acknowledgments
		References
	25 - Invasive plants and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. A brief introduction into plant invasions
			2.1 What makes a plant invasive?
			2.2 How does a plant become invasive? What stages must it go through?
			2.3 Why does a plant become invasive? What are the drivers of invasion?
				2.3.1 Propagule pressure
				2.3.2 Environmental suitability and availability of resources for growth
				2.3.3 Interactions with other species
		3. How can climate change influence plant invasion success?
			3.1 Changing background environmental conditions
				3.1.1 Suitability of recipient ecosystems
				3.1.2 Characteristics of the recipient native biota
				3.1.3 Are invasive species better at responding to climate change than natives?
			3.2 Disturbances from extreme climatic events
			3.3 Human responses to climate change
				3.3.1 Effects of climate change mitigation on plant invasions
				3.3.2 Effects of climate change adaptation on plant invasions
		4. Current and projected levels of plant invasions under climate change
			4.1 Current levels of plant invasion
			4.2 Projected levels of plant invasion in future climates
		5. Can plant invasions influence climate change?
			5.1 Albedo and evapotranspiration
			5.2 Fire
		6. Conclusion
		References
	26 - Biological diversity and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. A quick history of biodiversity impact assessments
		3. Observed changes in biodiversity
		4. Future changes in biodiversity
		5. IPCC's reason for concern diagram
		6. Are the Paris Accords effective to protect biodiversity?
		7. Conclusions
		References
	27 - The role of forests in the carbon cycle and in climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Climate change
		3. Disturbance
		4. Climate change—disturbance interaction
		5. Reforestation/afforestation, restoration, and forest management
		6. Conclusion
		References
IV - Other possible contributing factors to climate change
	28 - The variation of the Earth's movements (orbital, tilt, and precession) and climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Astronomical parameters
			2.1 Eccentricity
			2.2 Precession and obliquity
			2.3 Insolation
		3. Orbital-induced climate change
			3.1 Ice ages
			3.2 Monsoon
			3.3 Hyperthermal events
		4. Conclusion
		Acknowledgments
		References
	29 - The role of volcanic activity in climate and global changes
		1. Introduction
		2. Aerosol loading, spatial distribution, and radiative effect
		3. Volcanoes and climate
			3.1 Tropospheric cooling and stratospheric warming
			3.2 Effect on hydrological cycle
			3.3 Volcanic effect on atmospheric circulation
			3.4 Volcanic impact on ocean heat content and sea level
			3.5 Strengthening of overturning circulation
			3.6 Volcanic impact on sea ice
			3.7 Volcanic impact on ocean–atmosphere climate variability modes
			3.8 Effect of small volcanoes, climate hiatus, and geoengineering analogs
		4. Summary
		References
	30 - Atmospheric aerosols and their role in climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. The life cycle of tropospheric aerosols
		3. The spatial distribution of tropospheric aerosols
		4. Aerosol–radiation interactions
		5. Aerosol–cloud interactions
		6. The net radiative forcing of aerosols
		7. The role of aerosols in climate feedback mechanisms
		8. The role of aerosols in potential climate engineering schemes
		References
	31 - Climate change and agriculture
		Abbreviations
		1. Introduction
		2. Agriculture and climate change
		3. Sources of emissions from agriculture
			3.1 Land use conversion
			3.2 Fuel consumption
			3.3 N2O emissions from fertilizers and management system
				3.3.1 Chemical fertilizers
				3.3.2 Tillage systems
				3.3.3 Rotations
				3.3.4 Cover crops
				3.3.5 Soil properties
				3.3.6 Organic farming
			3.4 Methane (CH4) emission
				3.4.1 Wetlands
				3.4.2 Rice cultivation
				3.4.3 Peatlands
				3.4.4 Livestock
				3.4.5 Permafrost
				3.4.6 CH4 oxidation/uptake by soil
		4. Accelerated soil erosion
		5. Mitigation potential of agriculture
			5.1 Soil management
			5.2 Crop, animal management
			5.3 Long-term persistence and effectiveness of carbon sequestration in agroecosystems
			5.4 Agricultural emission and diet preferences
		6. Conclusions
		References
	32 - Changes in the Sun's radiation: the role of widespread surface solar radiation trends in climate change: dimmi ...
		1. Introduction—solar radiation basics
		2. Solar radiation above the atmosphere
			2.1 Total solar irradiance variations
			2.2 Earth's albedo and net top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation
		3. Bottom of the atmosphere radiation
			3.1 Measurement of surface radiation
			3.2 Comparing Eg↓ from different sites
			3.3 Archives of surface solar radiation measurements
		4. Trends in surface solar radiation, or global dimming and brightening
			4.1 Global dimming reports in the 20th century
			4.2 From dimming to brightening
			4.3 Global and regional changes
		5. The causes of dimming and brightening
			5.1 Cloud trends and their influence on Eg↓
			5.2 Eg↓ prior to the 1950s
		6. Influence of solar radiation changes (global dimming and brightening) on climate
			6.1 The evaporation conundrum—evaporation trends and their relation to dimming and brightening
			6.2 Soil moisture trends
			6.3 The hydrological cycle
			6.4 Daily temperature range
			6.5 Wind speed and the monsoon system
		7. Conclusions
		References
	33 - Space weather and cosmic ray effects
		1. Introduction and modern climate change models
			1.1 Factors influenced on climate change
			1.2 Middle atmosphere temperature trends in the 20th and 21st centuries simulated with the WACCM
			1.3 Decadal attribution of historic temperature and ocean heat content change to anthropogenic emissions
		2. Solar activity, cosmic rays, cloudiness, and climate change
			2.1 Long-term cosmic ray intensity variations and climate change
			2.2 The possible role of solar activity and solar irradiance in climate change
			2.3 Cosmic rays as an important link between solar activity and climate change
			2.4 The connection between galactic cosmic ray solar cycles and the Earth's cloud coverage
			2.5 The influence of cosmic rays on the Earth's temperature
			2.6 Cosmic ray influence on weather during Maunder minimum
			2.7 The influence of long-term variations of solar activity and cosmic ray intensity on production and prices of wheat as well  ...
				2.7.1 The nature of the links solar activity→cosmic rays→cloudiness→production and prices of wheat
				2.7.2 Possible links for formation harvest
				2.7.3 Yield deficit and grain market
				2.7.4 Using data for statistical analysis
				2.7.5 Using methods of analysis
				2.7.6 Wheat markets' sensitivity to space weather in Medieval England
				2.7.7 Wheat markets sensitivity to space weather in Medieval Europe
				2.7.8 The US wheat market sensitivity to space weather in 20th century
				2.7.9 Manifestation of space weather influence on famines and the death toll: a case study of Iceland in the 18th to 19th centuries
			2.8 The connection between ion generation in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and total surface of clouds
			2.9 The influence of big magnetic storms (Forbush decreases) and solar cosmic ray events on rainfall
			2.10 The influence of geomagnetic disturbances and solar activity on the climate through energetic particle precipitation from i ...
			2.11 On the possible influence of galactic cosmic rays on formation of cirrus hole and global warming
			2.12 Description of long-term galactic cosmic ray variation by both convection–diffusion and drift mechanisms with possibility o ...
			2.13 Influence of long-term variation of main geomagnetic field on global climate change through cosmic ray cutoff rigidity vari ...
			2.14 Atmospheric ionization by cosmic rays: the altitude dependence and planetary distribution
			2.15 Project “cloud” as an important step in understanding the link between cosmic rays and cloud formation
		3. The influence on the Earth's climate of the solar system moving around the galactic center and crossing galaxy arms
		4. The influence of molecular-dust galactic clouds on the Earth's climate
		5. The influence of interplanetary dust sources on the Earth's climate
		6. Influence of planetary dust sources (natural and anthropogenic) on the Earth's climate
			6.1 On the role of volcanic activity in climate change
			6.2 Anthropogenic effects on cloud condensation nuclei
			6.3 Direct Radiative Effect by mineral dust aerosols
			6.4 Effects of sea salt aerosol emissions
			6.5 Pantropical response to global warming and thermostat mechanism
			6.6 Relevance of relative sea surface temperature for tropical rainfall
			6.7 Climate change and NOx produced by energetic particle precipitation
		7. Cosmic rays/space factors and global warming
			7.1 Possible influence of variations of solar and magnetic activities
			7.2 Possible influence of cosmic ray long-term decrease
			7.3 Influence of solar variability and galactic cosmic rays as well as ENSO, NAO, and QBO on the climate change
			7.4 On the correlation between solar activity/atmospheric CO2 with temperature in Antarctica during the past 11,000 a before in ...
		8. The influence of asteroids and great meteorites impacts on the Earth's climate
		9. The influence of nearby supernova on the Earth's climate
		10. Discussion and conclusions
		References
V - Societal aspects of global change
	34 - Engineering aspects of climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. The role of the engineer
		3. Global greenhouse gases
		4. Engineering aspects of the “spheres”
		5. Engineering and the carbon cycle
		6. Nutrient engineering
		7. Albedo engineering
		8. Engineering-based decision-making
		References
		Further reading
	35 - Societal adaptation to climate change
		1. Introduction
		2. Risk and vulnerability
		3. Disease occurrence and transmission
		4. Ocean and large-scale surface water changes
		5. Resilience
		6. Extreme events
		7. Food and water supply
		8. Conclusions
		References
Index
	A
	B
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	D
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	F
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	I
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	K
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	M
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	O
	P
	Q
	R
	S
	T
	U
	V
	W
	X
	Y
	Z
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