Climate Change Economics between Europe and China: Long-Term Economic Development of Divergence and Convergence

Acknowledgment
Introduction: An Academic Journey Starts from the Geography
	Geographical Experiment
	Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: A Conceptual Basis of the Book
	Book Structure
	References
Contents
About the Author
Chapter 1: A Philosophical Basis
	1.1 A Tale of Two Regions
	1.2 Philosophical Basis
		1.2.1 Environmental Humanities
		1.2.2 Environmental Humanities and Environmental Determinism
		1.2.3 The Big Data and Quantitative History
		1.2.4 Historical Geography: A Subject to Bridge the Gaps Between History and Geography and Between Time and Space
		1.2.5 Anthropocene: A New Age of Nature–Human Association
	1.3 Objectives of the Book
	1.4 Potential Significance and Risks
		1.4.1 Empirical Support to Environmental Humanities
		1.4.2 Empirical Evaluation of Historical Records for Quantitative Analysis
		1.4.3 Anthropocene: A Divergence in Perception Between China and Europe
		1.4.4 A Possible Historical Reference for Future Climate Challenge?
	1.5 Distinguishing Points of This Book
	References
Chapter 2: A New Approach to an Old Question: A Methodological Basis
	2.1 The Way to Understand Paleoclimate Change
		2.1.1 Instrumental Records
		2.1.2 Historical Records
		2.1.3 Natural Proxies
			2.1.3.1 Tree Rings
			2.1.3.2 Pollens
			2.1.3.3 Ice Cores
			2.1.3.4 Speleothems
			2.1.3.5 Ocean Sediments
			2.1.3.6 Corals
		2.1.4 Concerns in Paleoclimatology: Accuracy and Resolution
	2.2 Temperature and Precipitation as the Indicators of Climate Change
	2.3 Strategies for Paleoclimate Reconstruction in the Book
	2.4 Scale Thinking: A Key Methodological Issue
		2.4.1 Temporal Scale
		2.4.2 Spatial Scale
		2.4.3 Implications of the Microscale and Macroscale Approaches
		2.4.4 Purification of the Scale Issue in the Book
	2.5 Data and Methods in the Book
		2.5.1 Study Period in the Book
		2.5.2 Data Sources
			2.5.2.1 Reconstructed Climate Index in the Book
			2.5.2.2 Grain Yield Ratio: A Key Indicator of Agricultural Production in Pre-industrial Europe
			2.5.2.3 Price Mechanism in the Grain Market
			2.5.2.4 Estimated Population Size in the Past
		2.5.3 Methods
	2.6 Philosophy Embedded in the Statistical Analysis
	2.7 Theoretical Basis of the Causal Analysis in the Book
	2.8 A Brief Discussion on the Historical Records of China and Europe
	References
Chapter 3: Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of Europe
	3.1 The Little Ice Age and the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century in Pre-industrial Europe
	3.2 The Facts on Pre-industrial Europe According to the Historical Literature
		3.2.1 Social Buffering Capacity of Pre-industrial Europe in General
			3.2.1.1 New Crops
			3.2.1.2 Government Management and Institutions
			3.2.1.3 Trade and Transportation
		3.2.2 England
		3.2.3 France
		3.2.4 Germany
		3.2.5 Poland
		3.2.6 Russia
		3.2.7 Negative Impacts of Precipitation on Pre-industrial Europe
	3.3 Quantitative Analysis at a Macroscale of Europe’s Agrarian Economy
		3.3.1 Theoretical Framework at a Macroscale
		3.3.2 Statistical Analysis of the Theoretical Framework
	3.4 Implications of the Quantitative Results for Pre-industrial Europe
		3.4.1 Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy at Different Temporal Scales
		3.4.2 Temperature: A Controlling Factor of Climate Change in Pre-industrial Europe
		3.4.3 Supply–Demand Mechanism in Pre-industrial Europe
		3.4.4 Social Crisis and Economic Development in Historical Europe
	3.5 Summary
	References
Chapter 4: Climate Change and the Agrarian Economy: The Case of China
	4.1 The Facts on China According to the Historical Literature
		4.1.1 Social Buffering Capacity of Late Imperial China in General
			4.1.1.1 Technology and New Crops
			4.1.1.2 Trade and Transportation
			4.1.1.3 Government Management and Institutions
			4.1.1.4 Storage
		4.1.2 Tumu Crisis (土木之变)
		4.1.3 Li Zicheng (李自成) Rebellion
		4.1.4 Manchurian Conquest
		4.1.5 Daoguang (道光) Depression
		4.1.6 Taiping Rebellion
	4.2 Quantitative Analysis at a Macroscale of China’s Agrarian Economy
	4.3 Implications of the Quantitative Results for Late Imperial China
		4.3.1 Comparative Role of Temperature and Precipitation
		4.3.2 Special Role of Population in Late Imperial China
		4.3.3 Social Crisis and Economic Development in Historical China
	4.4 Summary
	References
Chapter 5: Comparative Analysis of Eurasia
	5.1 Climate Change and the Agrarian Economies of Pre-Industrial Europe and Late Imperial China
	5.2 Comparisons of Countries Across Eurasia
		5.2.1 Wide Influence of Climate Change on the Agrarian Society
		5.2.2 Differentiated Responses to Climate Change
			5.2.2.1 Long-Term Versus Short-Term Climatic Impacts
			5.2.2.2 Major Role of Population: Labor or Consumer?
		5.2.3 Climate Change, Agrarian Economy, and Social Crisis: Direct and Indirect Ways
	5.3 Climate Change, Agrarian Economy, and the Great Divergence
	5.4 A Quantitative Answer to When, Where, and How
	References
Chapter 6: The Way to Know the Chinese Past According to the Climate-Related Records
	6.1 Current Progress in Climate History Research Based on China’s Historical Documents
		6.1.1 Application to Paleoclimate Reconstructions
		6.1.2 Understanding Climate and Society
	6.2 Elements of Weather/Climate in the Records of Imperial China
		6.2.1 Materials of Historical Documents
		6.2.2 Sources of Historical Documents
		6.2.3 Generalizations in the Writing Style
		6.2.4 Direct Historical Records on Climatic Conditions
	6.3 Comments on China’s Historical Documents in the Context of Climate History
		6.3.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Using China’s Historical Documents
		6.3.2 Main Principles in Using China’s Historical Documents
		6.3.3 Possibility of Quantitative Approaches in Using the Historical Documents of China
		6.3.4 “Mandate of Heaven”: Exploring an Important Social Implication of Climate
		6.3.5 “Heaven” and the Pragmatism of Governance in Ancient China
	6.4 Revisiting Environmental Humanities and the “Mandate of Heaven”
	6.5 Summary
	References
Chapter 7: Conclusion
	7.1 Remarks on the Findings in the Book
	7.2 Theoretical Implications of the Findings in This Book
		7.2.1 Revisiting Evolutionary Economics, Ecological Economics, and Environmental Economics
		7.2.2 A Key Methodological Issue: Scale Thinking
		7.2.3 Causal Mechanisms in Scale Thinking
		7.2.4 Role of Population in Scale Thinking
		7.2.5 Historical Root of the Notion of Anthropocene in China and Europe
			7.2.5.1 Comparative View of Anthropocene Between China and Europe
			7.2.5.2 Anthropocene and Ecological Civilization in China
		7.2.6 Comparison Between Quantitative History and the Questionnaire Survey Method: Three Open Questions for Readers
		7.2.7 Modest Remarks on the Quantitative Analysis in the Book
	7.3 Potential Social Implications to the Current Society
		7.3.1 Forthcoming Climate Change and Agricultural Production
		7.3.2 Dual Role of China in the Context of Climate Change in the Anthropocene
		7.3.3 Climate Action of China in the Anthropocene
		7.3.4 Economic Vulnerability from a Demographic Perspective
	7.4 Limitations of the Study
	7.5 Future Research Direction
	References