Climate Change Biology

CLIMATE CHANGE BIOLOGY......Page 4
COPYRIGHT PAGE......Page 5
CONTENTS......Page 6
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 12
Section 1 Introduction......Page 14
CHAPTER 1 A New Discipline: Climate Change Biology......Page 16
A Greenhouse Planet......Page 17
Boundaries of Life......Page 20
Shifting Interactions......Page 21
Linkages Back to Climate......Page 22
Climate Change Biology......Page 23
The Climate System......Page 26
Evolution of the Earth's Climate......Page 29
Natural Drivers of Change......Page 32
Major Features of Present Climate......Page 37
Stable States of the System......Page 41
Human-Driven Change: Rising CO[sub(2)]......Page 43
Rapid Climate Change......Page 47
Change and the Global Carbon Cycle......Page 52
Modeling the Climate System......Page 54
Regional Climate Models......Page 58
Commonly Used GCMs......Page 61
GCM Outputs......Page 63
Further Reading......Page 65
Section 2 The Impacts of Human Induced Climate Change......Page 66
CHAPTER 3 Species Range Shifts......Page 68
First Sign of Change: Coral Bleaching......Page 69
Acidification—The CO[sub(2)] Double Whammy......Page 72
First Changes on Land......Page 73
Mounting Evidence of Range Shifts......Page 75
Patterns within the Patterns......Page 84
Extinctions......Page 85
Freshwater Changes......Page 88
Pests and Pathogens......Page 89
Further Reading......Page 92
CHAPTER 4 Phenology: Changes in Timing of Biological Events Due to Climate Change......Page 94
Arrival of Spring......Page 96
Freshwater Systems......Page 100
Tropical Forest Phenology......Page 102
Marine Systems......Page 104
Mechanisms: Temperature and Photoperiod......Page 106
Life Cycles of Insect Herbivores......Page 107
Timing Mismatches Between Species......Page 110
Further Reading......Page 113
Tropical Ecosystem Changes......Page 114
Cloud Forests......Page 116
Temperate Ecosystem Change......Page 120
High Mountain Ecosystems......Page 124
Glacier and Snowpack-Dependent Ecosystems......Page 126
Polar and Marine Systems......Page 129
Tropical Marine Systems......Page 133
Pelagic Marine Systems......Page 136
Changes in Ocean Chemistry......Page 138
Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climate System......Page 139
Further Reading......Page 143
Section 3 Lessons from the Past......Page 144
Scope of Change......Page 146
The Earth Moves......Page 147
Climate Runs Through It......Page 149
Fast and Far: The Record of the Ice Ages......Page 153
Ice Racing in North America and Europe......Page 154
Out of Land: The Southern Temperate Response......Page 157
North Meets South......Page 158
Rapid Change: The Younger Dryas......Page 161
Tropical Responses......Page 163
Milankovitch Forcing in the Biological Record......Page 167
Further Reading......Page 168
Effects of Temperature Change......Page 170
Effects of Sea Level Change......Page 174
Changes in Ocean Circulation......Page 175
Changes in Ocean Chemistry......Page 179
Further Reading......Page 184
CHAPTER 8 Past Freshwater Changes......Page 186
Lakes as Windows to Past Climate......Page 187
Types of Freshwater Alteration with Climate......Page 192
Freshwater Biotas, Habitats, and Food Chains......Page 196
Deep Time: Pace of Evolution and Species Accumulation......Page 197
Recent-Time (Tertiary and Pleistocene) Records of Change......Page 199
Further Reading......Page 201
The Five Major Mass Extinctions......Page 202
Causes of Extinction Events......Page 206
Climate as the Common Factor in Major Extinctions......Page 207
Impacts and Climate......Page 208
Climate and Extinctions in Deep Time......Page 209
The Past 100 Million Years......Page 211
The Past 2 Million Years: Extinction at the Dawn of the Ice Ages and the Pleistocene Extinctions......Page 214
Patterns in the Losses......Page 217
Further Reading......Page 218
Section 4 Looking to the Future......Page 220
Theory......Page 222
Laboratory and Greenhouse Experiments......Page 227
Field Experiments......Page 233
Results of Whole-Vegetation Experiments......Page 237
Results of Field CO[sub(2)] Experiments......Page 239
Arctic Experiments......Page 242
Further Reading......Page 244
CHAPTER 11 Modeling Species and Ecosystem Response......Page 246
Types of Models......Page 248
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models......Page 252
Species Distribution Models......Page 256
Gap Models......Page 265
Modeling Aquatic Systems......Page 266
Earth System Models......Page 271
Further Reading......Page 272
CHAPTER 12 Estimating Extinction Risk from Climate Change......Page 274
Evidence from the Past......Page 276
Estimates from Species Distribution Modeling......Page 278
Species–Area Relationship......Page 280
A Question of Dispersal......Page 281
Checking the Estimates......Page 282
Not Just About Polar Bears Anymore......Page 283
Are a Million Species at Risk?......Page 285
Why the Future may not be Like the Past......Page 287
Further Reading......Page 288
Section 5 Implications for Conservation......Page 290
CHAPTER 13 Adaptation of Conservation Strategies......Page 292
Early Concepts of Protected Areas and Climate Change......Page 293
Protected Area Planning......Page 297
Planning for Persistence......Page 299
Resistance Resilience......Page 302
Protected Area Management......Page 304
Marine Protected Areas......Page 307
Protected Areas for Climate Change......Page 313
Further Reading......Page 314
CHAPTER 14 Connectivity and Landscape Management......Page 316
Area-Demanding Species......Page 317
Migratory Species......Page 321
Species Range Shifts......Page 323
Planning for Connectivity......Page 324
Managing Connectivity in Human-Dominated Landscapes......Page 327
Regional Coordination......Page 328
Monitoring......Page 329
Further Reading......Page 330
Threatened Species......Page 332
Species Threatened by Climate Change......Page 335
Assessing Species Threatened by Climate Change......Page 337
An Iconic Example......Page 339
Managing Species Threatened by Climate Change......Page 341
Resources for the Job......Page 348
Further Reading......Page 349
Section 6 Finding Solutions: International Policy and Action......Page 350
Climate Policy......Page 352
Stabilizing Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations......Page 354
Practical Steps for the Next 50 Years......Page 355
Renewable Energy Sources......Page 357
Nuclear Power......Page 361
The End of Oil......Page 363
Putting the Pieces Together......Page 368
Further Reading......Page 369
Wedges Beyond 50 Years......Page 370
Past Experience......Page 371
Land use Requirements of Alternate Energy......Page 372
Solar......Page 373
Wind......Page 374
Biofuels......Page 376
Hydropower, Tidal Power, and Geothermal Power......Page 378
Carbon Sequestration......Page 379
Geoengineering......Page 381
Estimating Extinction Risk......Page 382
Further Reading......Page 384
The Assessment Process......Page 386
Domain and Grain......Page 387
Biological Assessment......Page 388
Stand-Alone Biological Assessment......Page 390
Design of Adaptation Solutions......Page 391
Two Examples......Page 392
And Do It Again......Page 394
REFERENCES......Page 396
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