Climate Change Biology

Front Cover
Climate Change Biology
Climate Change Biology
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Acknowledgements
1 -Introduction
	1 - A New Discipline: Climate Change Biology
		A GREENHOUSE PLANET
		BOUNDARIES OF LIFE
		SHIFTING INTERACTIONS
		CHEMISTRY OF CHANGE
		LINKAGES BACK TO CLIMATE
		CLIMATE CHANGE BIOLOGY
	2 - The Climate System and Climate Change
		THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
		EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH’S CLIMATE
		NATURAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE
		MAJOR FEATURES OF PRESENT CLIMATE
		STABLE STATES OF THE SYSTEM
		HUMAN-DRIVEN CHANGE: RISING CO2
		RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE
		THE VELOCITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
		MODELING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
		REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
		COMMONLY USED GCMS
		EMISSIONS PATHWAYS
		GCM OUTPUTS
		BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS WITH DOWNSCALED DATA
		FURTHER READING
2 - Impacts of Climate Change on Nature
	3 - Biochemical, Cellular, and Organismal Responses to Climate Change
		TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON BIOCHEMISTRY AND CELLS
			Q10
			Protein Denaturation
			Cell Membrane Changes
			Temperature Regulation
			Temperature Effects on Photosynthesis
		CELLULAR CO2 EFFECTS
			Temperature plus CO2
			Ocean Acidification
			Calcium Carbonate Changes
		ORGANISM-LEVELRESPONSES IN ANIMALS
			Ectotherm, Endotherm
			Body Size and Shape
			Thermal Performance Curves
				“They Are Happiest Next to where They Are Dead”
			Critical Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
			The Tree, the Fish and the Walrus: Whole Organism Thermoregulation and Energy Balance
				The Tree
				The Fish
				The Walrus
			Species Climatic Tolerances
	4 - Ecological, Evolutionary, and Biogeographic Implications of Climate Change
		NICHE
			Niche Filling
		NICHE FILLING IN TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE ORGANISMS
		NICHE BREADTH AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
			Individualistic Range Movements
			Novel and Disappearing Ecosystems
			Novel and Disappearing Climates
		POPULATION GROWTH IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE
			Population Ecology
			Competition
			Allee Effects
			Negative Density Dependence
			Leading and Trailing Edges
				Importance of the Trailing Edge
				Leading Edge Genetics
		EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES: ADAPT, MOVE, OR DIE
			Evolution Helps Movement
			Biogeography of Climate Change
				Range Boundaries Change with Climate Change
				Legacy of Past Change
			Where to Expect Change
				Microclimates
		CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS
	5 - Climate Change and the Earth System
		THE EARTH SYSTEM
			Climate-VegetationFeedbacks
			Earth System Interactions
		CLIMATE CHANGE AND NUTRIENT CYCLES
			Nitrogen
			Phosphorus
		THE CARBON CYCLE
			Slow Carbon
			Fast Carbon
			Ocean Carbon Cycle
			Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
		HUMAN INFLUENCE ON THE CARBON CYCLE
			Recent Trends in Terrestrial Sources and Sinks
		PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
3 - Impacts of Climate Change on Nature
	6 - Species Range Shifts
		FIRST SIGN OF CHANGE: CORAL BLEACHING
		FIRST CHANGES ON LAND
		MOUNTING EVIDENCE OF RANGE SHIFTS
		PATTERNS WITHIN THE PATTERNS
		EXTINCTIONS
		FRESHWATER CHANGES
		PESTS AND PATHOGENS
		FURTHER READING
	7 - Phenology: Changes in Timing of Biological Events Due to Climate Change
		ARRIVAL OF SPRING
		FRESHWATER SYSTEMS
		SPRING AHEAD, FALL BEHIND
		TROPICAL FOREST PHENOLOGY
		MARINE SYSTEMS
		MECHANISMS: TEMPERATURE AND PHOTOPERIOD
		LIFE-CYCLES OF INSECT HERBIVORES
		TIMING MISMATCHES BETWEEN SPECIES
		FURTHER READING
	8 - Ecosystem Change
		TROPICAL ECOSYSTEM CHANGES
		CLOUD FORESTS
		TEMPERATE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE
		HIGH MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMS
		GLACIER AND SNOWPACK-DEPENDENT ECOSYSTEMS
		POLAR AND MARINE SYSTEMS
		POLAR FOOD WEBS: CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
		TROPICAL MARINE SYSTEMS
		PELAGIC MARINE SYSTEMS
		OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
		ECOSYSTEM FEEDBACKS TO CLIMATE SYSTEM
		FURTHER READING
4 - Lessons from the Past
	9 - Past Terrestrial Response
		Scope of Change
		The Earth Moves
		Climate Runs Through It
		Fast and Far: The Record of the Ice Ages
		Ice Racing in North America and Europe
		Out of Land: The Southern Temperate Response
		North Meets South
		Rapid Change: The Younger Dryas
		Tropical Responses
		Milankovitch Forcing in the Biological Record
		Lessons of Past Change
		Further Reading
	10 - Past Marine Ecosystem Changes
		EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE
		EFFECTS OF SEA-LEVEL CHANGE
		CHANGES IN OCEAN CIRCULATION
		CHANGES IN OCEAN CHEMISTRY
			Coral Reef Distribution
			Deep-Time Reefs
			Implications for the Future of Tropical Reefs
		FURTHER READING
	11 - Past Freshwater Changes
		LAKES AS WINDOWS TO PAST CLIMATE
		TYPES OF FRESHWATER ALTERATION WITH CLIMATE
		FRESHWATER BIOTAS, HABITATS, AND FOOD CHAINS
		PRESS AND PULSE-DRIVEN CHANGE: 2 LAKES
			Lake Baikal
			Lake Victoria
		DEEP TIME: PACE OF EVOLUTION AND SPECIES ACCUMULATION
		RECENT-TIME (TERTIARY AND PLEISTOCENE) RECORDS OF CHANGE
		FAST FORWARD
		FURTHER READING
	12 - Extinctions
		THE FIVE MAJOR MASS EXTINCTIONS
		CAUSES OF EXTINCTION EVENTS
		CLIMATE AS THE COMMON FACTOR IN MAJOR EXTINCTIONS
		IMPACTS AND CLIMATE
		DOES CLIMATE CHANGE ALWAYS CAUSE EXTINCTION?
		CLIMATE AND EXTINCTIONS IN DEEP TIME
		THE PAST 100 MILLION YEARS
		THE PAST 2 MILLION YEARS: EXTINCTION AT THE DAWN OF THE ICE AGES AND THE PLEISTOCENE EXTINCTIONS
		THE MISSING ICE AGE EXTINCTIONS
		PATTERNS IN THE LOSSES
		FURTHER READING
5 - Looking to the Future
	13 - Insights from Experimentation
		THEORY
			Warming
			Effects of Elevated CO2
			Shading and UV Light
		LABORATORY AND GREENHOUSE EXPERIMENTS
			Ocean Acidification Experiments
			Experiments on Terrestrial Systems
		FIELD EXPERIMENTS
			Warming Methods
			Simulation of Drying and Increased Precipitation
			Free Air CO2 Methods
		RESULTS OF WHOLE-VEGETATION EXPERIMENTS
		RESULTS OF FIELD CO2 EXPERIMENTS
		FRESHWATER EXPERIMENTS
		ARCTIC EXPERIMENTS
		FURTHER READING
	14 - Modeling Species and Ecosystem Response
		TYPES OF MODELS
		DYNAMIC GLOBAL VEGETATION MODELS
		SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
		GAP MODELS
		MODELING AQUATIC SYSTEMS
		EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
		FURTHER READING
	15 - Estimating Extinction Risk from Climate Change
		EVIDENCE FROM THE PAST
		ESTIMATES FROM SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING
		SPECIES–AREA RELATIONSHIP
		A QUESTION OF DISPERSAL
		THE PROBLEM WITH ENDEMICS
		CHECKING THE ESTIMATES
		NOT JUST ABOUT POLAR BEARS ANYMORE
		ARE A MILLION SPECIES AT RISK?
		WHY THE FUTURE MAY NOT BE LIKE THE PAST
		FURTHER READING
	16 - Ecosystem Services
		FOOD PROVISION—MARINE FISHERIES
		WATER PROVISIONING
		CARBON SEQUESTRATION
		FIRE
		TOURISM
		ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION
		COASTAL PROTECTION
		WATER SUPPLY
		FOOD PRODUCTION
		DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
		FURTHER READING
6 - Implications for Conservation
	17 - Adaptation of Conservation Strategies
		EARLY CONCEPTS OF PROTECTED AREAS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
		PROTECTED AREA PLANNING
		PLANNING FOR PERSISTENCE
		RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE
		PROTECTED-AREA MANAGEMENT
		MARINE PROTECTED AREAS
		PROTECTED AREAS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
		FURTHER READING
	18 - Connectivity and Landscape Management
		AREA-DEMANDING SPECIES
		MIGRATORY SPECIES
		SPECIES RANGE SHIFTS
		PLANNING FOR CONNECTIVITY
		MANAGING CONNECTIVITY IN HUMAN-DOMINATED LANDSCAPES
		CHANGING DISTURBANCE REGIMES
		PLANNING FOR CLIMATE “BLOWBACK”
		REGIONAL COORDINATION
		MONITORING
		FURTHER READING
	19 - Species Management
		THREATENED SPECIES
		CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THREATENED SPECIES
		SPECIES THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
		ASSESSING SPECIES THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
		AN ICONIC EXAMPLE
		MANAGING SPECIES THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
			Removing Other Stressors
			In Situ Management
			Assisted Migration
			Species Rescue
		RESOURCES FOR THE JOB
		FURTHER READING
7 - Finding solutions: International Policy
	20 - International Climate Policy
		UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
		THE PARIS AGREEMENT
		INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
		CARBON MARKETS
		REDUCED EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION AND DEGRADATION
		ADAPTATION
		WHY IS IT TAKING SO LONG?
		FURTHER READING
	21 - Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks, and Solutions
		STABILIZING ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS
		PRACTICAL STEPS FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS
		ENERGY EFFICIENCY
		RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
		RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
			Solar Energy
			Wind Energy
			Biofuels
			Hydropower, Tidal Power, and Geothermal Power
		NATURAL CLIMATE SOLUTIONS
		NUCLEAR POWER
		THE END OF OIL
		CLEAN COAL?
		TAR SANDS, OIL SHALES, AND FRACKING
		GETTING CO2 BACK
		CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
		GETTING TO NET ZERO
		EXTINCTION RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS
			Wedges Beyond 50years
			Past Experience
		LAND-USEREQUIREMENTS OF ALTERNATE ENERGY
			Solar and Wind
			Biofuels
			Hydropower, Tidal Power, and Geothermal Power
			Nuclear Power
			Extinction Risk from Renewables
		GETTING TO 1.5° OR 2.0°
		BECCS
		GEOENGINEERING
		SHORT-TERMWEDGES AND LONG-TERMPATHWAYS
		FURTHER READING
	22 - Assessing Risks, Designing Solutions
		IMPACTS, RISKS, AND ADAPTATION
		THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS
		DOMAIN AND GRAIN
		BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT
		STAND-ALONE BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT
		DESIGN OF ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS
		TWO EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION SOLUTIONS
		AND DO IT AGAIN
References
Index
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