Climate Change and Global Food Security (Books in Soils, Plants, and the Environment)

Climate Change and Global Food Security......Page 8
Preface......Page 10
Contents......Page 13
Contributors......Page 19
Section I: Global Food Security......Page 25
CONTENTS......Page 26
1.1 REDUCING HUNGER IN AFRICA......Page 29
1.2 COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 30
1.3 ESTIMATING BIOMASS OF YOUNG TROPICAL VEGETATION......Page 31
1.4 HOW TO MEASURE SOIL CARBON......Page 32
1.6 ADAPTING TO THERMAL DAMAGE......Page 33
1.7.1 High Carbon Sequestration Potential of Tropical Agroecosystems......Page 35
1.7.2 Carbon Sequestration by Smallholder Farming Communities......Page 38
REFERENCES......Page 39
2.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 43
2.2 PAST PERSPECTIVES......Page 46
2.3 PRESENT PERSPECTIVES......Page 51
2.4 FUTURE PERSPECTIVES......Page 53
REFERENCES......Page 57
CONTENTS......Page 61
3.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 62
3.2 THE GREEN REVOLUTION — WHAT HAS BEEN ACHIEVED?......Page 63
3.2.1 Criticisms of the Green Revolution......Page 68
3.2.2 Hunger Still Stalks Asia......Page 69
3.3.2 Livestock Demand — The Global Wealth Effect......Page 70
3.3.2.1 Marginalized People and Lands......Page 71
3.3.3 Africa Is the Major Challenge......Page 72
3.4.1 Raising Maximum Genetic Potential......Page 74
3.4.2 Sustaining Yields in Irrigated Areas......Page 75
3.4.2.1 Addressing Marginal Lands and Environments......Page 77
3.4.2.3 What to Expect from Biotechnology......Page 79
3.5.1 Intellectual Property Rights, the Regulatory Process, and Scientific Innovation......Page 82
3.5.2 Future of Public Research......Page 84
3.6.1 Rural Infrastructure Underpins All Development......Page 85
3.6.2 Agriculture and Peace......Page 86
3.6.3 Mobilizing Political Will to Reduce Poverty and Hunger......Page 87
3.6.4 The Responsibility of Privileged Nations......Page 89
REFERENCES......Page 90
CONTENTS......Page 92
4.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 93
4.2.1 Agricultural Productivity......Page 95
4.2.2 Limited Use of New Technologies......Page 96
4.2.3 Assessing Food Security with the Food Security Assessment Model......Page 97
4.2.3.1 Food Security in 2002......Page 99
4.2.3.2 Projections of Food Security in 2012......Page 103
4.3.1 Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Food Security......Page 105
4.3.1.2 Climate Change......Page 106
4.3.1.4 Rising Sea Level......Page 107
4.4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE NEAR FUTURE......Page 108
4.4.1.1 Length of Growing Season on All Land......Page 109
4.4.1.2 Length of Growing Season on Current Cropland......Page 110
4.4.2 Climate Change and Food Security Projections for 2012......Page 121
4.4.3 Discussion......Page 122
4.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 126
REFERENCES......Page 128
CONTENTS......Page 133
5.1 CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE......Page 135
5.2 GLOBAL FOOD DEMAND......Page 137
5.3 VARIATION IN CROP YIELDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 141
5.4 SOIL DEGRADATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 146
5.5 SOIL CARBON DYNAMICS......Page 150
5.6 SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY......Page 155
5.7 CONCLUSIONS......Page 156
REFERENCES......Page 157
7.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 164
7.3 MODEL DESCRIPTION......Page 166
7.4 HISTORICAL AND FUTURE CLIMATE AND CO2 CONCENTRATION......Page 168
7.5 RESULTS......Page 169
7.6 SUMMARY......Page 172
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 174
REFERENCES......Page 175
CONTENTS......Page 177
8.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 178
8.2 CARBON FLOW IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS: POOLS AND FLUXES......Page 181
8.3 ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES OF PINE AND SWEETGUM FORESTS TO ELEVATED CO2......Page 187
8.4 INTERANNUAL VARIATION IN THE GROWTH RESPONSE OF A PINE FOREST TO ELEVATED CO2......Page 198
8.5 CONCLUSIONS......Page 201
REFERENCES......Page 203
CONTENTS......Page 213
9.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 214
9.2 MATERIALS AND METHODS......Page 215
9.2.1 Study Area......Page 216
9.2.2 Century Ecosystem Model......Page 217
9.2.3 Climate Change Scenarios......Page 218
9.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION......Page 220
9.5 CONCLUSIONS......Page 226
REFERENCES......Page 227
Section III: Climate Change and Agronomic Production......Page 231
CONTENTS......Page 232
10.1 CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 234
10.3 AGRO-ECOSYSTEM PROCESSES......Page 236
10.4.1 Agriculture Regions Will Experience Change over Time......Page 238
10.4.3 Agricultural Production in Many Developing Countries Is Especially Vulnerable......Page 240
10.4.5 Agricultural Systems Can Adapt, but Not Completely......Page 242
10.5.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation......Page 243
10.5.3 Agricultural Pests......Page 245
10.6 MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION RESPONSES......Page 247
10.6.1 Mitigation......Page 248
10.6.2 Adaptation......Page 249
10.7 INTERACTIONS......Page 251
10.7.1.1 Climate Variability and Change......Page 252
10.7.1.2 Observed Effects of Warming Trends......Page 253
10.7.1.3 Global and Local Scales......Page 254
REFERENCES......Page 255
CONTENTS......Page 258
11.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 259
11.2 STATE OF THE GLOBAL AGRICULTURE SECTOR......Page 260
11.2.1 State of Agriculture......Page 261
11.3 ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ON AGRICULTURE......Page 262
11.4.1.1 CO2 Effects on Crops......Page 263
11.4.2.1 Impacts on Crops and Livestock......Page 264
11.4.2.1.1 Accounting for Climate Variability......Page 268
11.4.3.1 Response and Adaptation of Crops and Livestock......Page 269
11.4.3.1.1 Economic Costs of Agricultural Adaptation......Page 270
11.4.3.1.2 A Note on Environmental Damage from Adaptation to Climate Change......Page 273
11.5.3 Response......Page 274
11.5.4 Adaptation......Page 275
REFERENCES......Page 276
CONTENTS......Page 282
12.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 283
12.2 SENSITIVITY OF TROPICAL AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE......Page 285
12.3 SOCIAL VULNERABILITY AND FOOD SECURITY......Page 286
12.4 AGRICULTURE, ECONOMIC POLICY CHANGE, AND FOOD SECURITY......Page 289
12.5 MAIZE AND AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY IN MEXICO......Page 293
12.6 CONCLUSION......Page 300
REFERENCES......Page 303
CONTENTS......Page 310
13.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 311
13.2 PHYSIOLOGICAL ECOLOGY AND NICHE-BASED RESPONSES......Page 315
13.2.1 Critical Role of Body Temperature in Insect Biology and Development......Page 317
13.2.2 Consequences of Altered Plant Nutrition......Page 318
13.2.2.2 Temperature, Food Quality, and Diet Processing......Page 321
13.3 SPECIES INTERACTIONS AND THE COMPLEXITY OF COMMUNITY-LEVEL FOOD WEBS......Page 322
13.3.1 Competition and Abiotic Conditions......Page 324
13.3.2 Predator–Prey Interactions......Page 325
13.3.2.1 Mediating Effects of Microclimate......Page 326
13.3.2.2 Context-Dependent Interactions between Predators and Prey......Page 327
13.3.3 Food Web (Tritrophic) Interactions......Page 328
13.4 CONCLUSIONS......Page 330
REFERENCES......Page 335
14.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 352
14.2 CROP PRODUCTION IN DRYLAND REGIONS......Page 356
14.3 SOIL ORGANIC MATTER......Page 357
14.4 SEQUESTERING SOIL CARBON......Page 360
14.5 FOOD SECURITY IN DRYLAND AREAS......Page 364
14.6 DISCUSSION......Page 366
14.7 CONCLUSIONS......Page 368
REFERENCES......Page 369
CONTENTS......Page 372
15.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 373
15.2.1 Global Climate Models......Page 375
15.2.2 Regional Climate Models......Page 376
15.2.3 Statistical Methods......Page 379
15.2.4 Crop Models......Page 380
15.3.2 Precipitation......Page 381
15.3.3 Soil Moisture......Page 385
15.3.4 Representing Crop Growth......Page 386
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 388
REFERENCES......Page 389
Section IV: Soil Carbon Dynamics and Farming/Cropping Systems......Page 393
CONTENTS......Page 394
16.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 395
16.2 COMBINING MODELS AND DATA TO ASSESS OPTIONS FOR SOIL C SEQUESTRATION......Page 398
16.2.1 Model Adaptation to Local Conditions......Page 399
16.2.1.1 Soil Data......Page 400
16.2.1.2 Weather Data......Page 401
16.2.1.3 Agronomic Experiment Data......Page 402
16.2.2 Simulation of Soil C Sequestration Potential, RT vs. CT......Page 403
16.3 COMBINING MEASUREMENTS AND MODELS FOR ESTIMATING SOC SEQUESTRATION......Page 405
16.3.1 Soil Carbon Model......Page 406
16.3.2 Soil Carbon Measurements......Page 407
16.3.3 The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Combining Model and Measurements......Page 408
16.3.4 Example Results......Page 410
16.4 DISCUSSION......Page 414
REFERENCES......Page 416
CONTENTS......Page 422
17.1 CONCEPTUAL BASIS FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN SOILS......Page 423
17.3 IMPACT OF TILLAGE MANAGEMENT ON GREENHOUSE GAS FLUXES......Page 427
17.4 GWP ANALYSIS FOR CONVENTIONAL AND NO-TILLAGE MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES......Page 428
17.5 LONG-TERM GWP EFFECTS OF CHANGING TILLAGE PRACTICE......Page 432
17.6 CONCLUSIONS......Page 433
REFERENCES......Page 434
CONTENTS......Page 438
18.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 439
18.2.1 Carbon Concentration in Sediment......Page 441
18.3 CARBON LOSS IN SUBSURFACE FLOW......Page 443
18.4 IMPLICATIONS OF THESE C LOSS PATHWAYS FOR MANAGEMENT......Page 446
REFERENCES......Page 448
CONTENTS......Page 453
19.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 454
19.2 CONCEPTUAL DESIGN FOR MONITORING AND VERIFYING SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION AT THE PROJECT LEVEL......Page 456
19.3.1 Soil Sampling......Page 460
19.3.2 Bulk Density......Page 463
19.3.3 Analysis of Soil Organic Carbon......Page 467
19.3.4 Models......Page 472
19.3.5 Remote Sensing......Page 474
19.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 478
REFERENCES......Page 479
20.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 487
20.2 MATERIALS AND METHODS......Page 488
20.2.1 Agricultural Systems......Page 489
20.2.3 Deriving Model Parameters......Page 491
20.2.4 Modeling Database......Page 494
20.3 RESULTS......Page 496
REFERENCES......Page 497
CONTENTS......Page 500
21.1 INTRODUCTION: FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 501
21.2 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION’S ACTIVITIES IN CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN DRYLAND FARMING SYSTEMS......Page 503
21.3 MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF FARMING SYSTEMS IN DRYLANDS......Page 504
21.4 CASE STUDIES IN DRYLANDS......Page 505
21.4.1 Case Study 1: Nigeria......Page 506
21.4.2 Case Study 2: Kenya......Page 509
21.4.3 Case Study 3: India......Page 511
21.4.4 Case Study 4: Argentina......Page 514
21.4.5 Overall Findings from Case Studies......Page 515
12.5 CONCLUSIONS......Page 517
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 519
REFERENCES......Page 520
CONTENTS......Page 523
22.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 524
22.2.1 Description of Study Area......Page 525
22.2.2 Methods......Page 528
22.3 FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOOD PROFILES......Page 530
22.4.1 Biophysical Potential......Page 533
22.4.2 Economic Feasibility......Page 537
22.5 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION......Page 544
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 546
REFERENCES......Page 547
CONTENTS......Page 552
23.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 553
23.2 SUSTAINABLE HILLSIDE MANAGEMENT PROJECT......Page 554
23.3 ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES......Page 557
23.4 MILPA/FRUIT TREE INTERCROPPING SYSTEM IN SUSTAINABLE HILLSIDE MANAGEMENT PROJECT......Page 560
23.5 RESULTS......Page 565
REFERENCES......Page 570
24.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 572
24.2 MATERIALS AND METHODS......Page 574
24.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION......Page 577
24.4 CONCLUSIONS......Page 583
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS......Page 584
REFERENCES......Page 585
CONTENTS......Page 588
25.1 CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRO-ECOLOGICAL REGIONS IN ZAMBIA......Page 592
25.1.2 Region 2......Page 594
25.2.1 Farming Systems......Page 595
25.2.2 Soil Carbon Dynamics in Smallholder Agriculture......Page 597
25.2.3 Impact of Farming Systems and Agroforestry on Soil Organic Carbon......Page 598
25.2.4 Integrated Soil Nutrient Management......Page 600
25.2.5 Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration Strategy......Page 602
25.2.6 Carbon Stocks in Natural Ecosystems and C Loss with Land Conversion in Africa......Page 603
25.3 POTENTIAL FOR SEQUESTERING SOIL ORGANIC CARBON IN ZAMBIA SOILS......Page 604
25.3.1 Soil Organic Matter, Soil Carbon, and Carbon Sequestration in Zambia......Page 606
25.3.2.2 Management of Residual Organic Matter and Soil Organic Matter Sequestration......Page 610
25.3.4 Mitigation Options in Zambian Forest Sector......Page 611
25.3.4.2 Expanding Carbon Sinks......Page 612
25.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION......Page 613
REFERENCES......Page 614
Section V: Policy and Economic Issues......Page 622
CONTENTS......Page 623
26.1 GLOBAL WARMING AS AN INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUE......Page 624
26.2 AN OPTIMAL DEGREE OF GLOBAL WARMING?......Page 626
26.3.1 The Kyoto Treaty as a Starting Point......Page 627
26.3.2 The Broader Policy Perspective......Page 628
26.3.3 Food Security......Page 629
26.3.4 Geographic Variability......Page 631
26.4.1 Strengthening the Knowledge Base......Page 632
26.4.2 Strengthening Global Institutional Arrangements......Page 633
26.4.3 Devising an Effective Incentive System......Page 634
26.5 THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCIPLINARY SYNERGISM......Page 635
26.6 CONCLUDING COMMENTS......Page 636
REFERENCES......Page 637
CONTENTS......Page 638
27.1 INTRODUCTION......Page 639
27.2 FOOD SECURITY AND THE FOOD SECURITY POLICY SYNTHESIS......Page 640
27.2.1 Setting......Page 641
27.2.2 Food Security Synthesis......Page 644
27.3 THE STANDARD MODEL......Page 647
27.3.1.1 Public Administration......Page 648
27.3.1.4 Infrastructure Investment......Page 649
27.3.1.7 Food and Income Safety Net......Page 650
27.3.2 Sequencing Development......Page 651
27.3.3 Economic Growth and the Environment......Page 652
27.4 AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES FOR FOOD AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY......Page 653
27.5 CONCLUSIONS......Page 655
REFERENCES......Page 657
CONTENTS......Page 659
28.1 POLICIES AND INCENTIVES FOR AGRICULTURAL CARBON SEQUESTRATION......Page 661
28.1.1 U.S. Response to Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol......Page 664
28.1.2 Strength of Incentives for Agricultural Sequestration......Page 666
28.2 INCENTIVE MECHANISMS FOR AGRICULTURAL CARBON SEQUESTRATION......Page 667
28.2.1 Farmer Participation in Carbon Contracts......Page 670
28.2.2 Contract Duration and Carbon Permanence......Page 672
28.2.3 Designing Soil Carbon Contracts for Farmers in Developing Countries......Page 674
28.2.3 Co-Benefits and Costs......Page 676
28.3 CONCLUSIONS......Page 677
REFERENCES......Page 678
CONTENTS......Page 682
29.1 GENERAL FINDINGS ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT......Page 683
29.2 MALI CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS......Page 687
29.3 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK......Page 689
29.4 ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY......Page 690
29.4.1.2 Resource Adaptations......Page 692
29.4.1.4 Market Adaptations......Page 693
29.5.1 Biophysical Results......Page 694
29.5.2 Economic and Food Security Implications......Page 696
29.5.2.1 Effects of Adaptation......Page 697
29.5.2.3 Effects of Population Expansion......Page 699
REFERENCES......Page 700
Section VI: Toward Research and Development Priorities......Page 706
CONTENTS......Page 707
30.1 ISSUES......Page 710
30.1.1.2 Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems......Page 711
30.1.2.2 Effect of Global Climate Change on Agricultural Pests......Page 712
30.1.2.4 Modeling Future Climate Changes and Crop Production Scenario Challenges......Page 713
30.1.3 Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration and Food Security......Page 714
30.1.3.2 Land Use, Soil Management, and Soil Carbon Sequestration......Page 715
30.1.3.4 Environmental and Socioeconomic Analysis of Soil Carbon Sequestration......Page 716
30.1.4.1 Policies and Incentives for Permanent Adoption of Agricultural Carbon Sequestration Practices in Industrialized and Developing Countries......Page 717
30.1.4.2 Climate Change, Poverty, and Resource-Friendly Agriculture......Page 718
30.1.4.4 Climate Change Impacts on Developing Countries......Page 719
30.2 IDENTIFICATION OF RESEARCHABLE PRIORITIES......Page 720
REFERENCES......Page 722