Climate Change and Cities: First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Foreword - Anna Tibaijuka......Page 9
Foreword - Rajendra Kumar Pachauri......Page 10
Foreword - Michael R. Bloomberg......Page 11
Foreword - Jeffrey D. Sachs......Page 12
Preface......Page 15
Executive Summary......Page 17
Urban climate: processes, trends, and projections......Page 18
Climate change and urban energy systems......Page 19
Climate change, water, and wastewater in cities......Page 21
Climate change and human health in cities......Page 22
The role of urban land in climate change......Page 23
About the First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3)......Page 24
References......Page 25
Part I Introduction......Page 27
1 Urban climate change in context......Page 29
1.1.1 Contributions to climate change and cities......Page 30
1.2 ARC3 structure and process......Page 31
1.3.3 Urbanization......Page 32
1.4.2 Urban climate hazards......Page 33
1.4.4 Urban water supply and wastewater treatment......Page 34
1.4.6 Climate change and human health in cities......Page 35
1.4.8 City governance......Page 36
REFERENCES......Page 37
Part II Defining the risk framework......Page 39
2 Cities, disasters, and climate risk......Page 41
2.3 Climate risk and key urban sector impacts......Page 42
2.4 Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: comparison, contrasts, and emerging synergies......Page 43
2.5 Convergence of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in the urban context......Page 44
2.6.1 Hazards......Page 46
2.6.3 Adaptive capacity......Page 47
2.7.1.1 Hazards and vulnerability......Page 48
2.7.1.2 Adaptive capacity: current and emerging issues......Page 51
2.7.2.1 Hazards and vulnerability......Page 52
2.7.2.2 Adaptive capacity: current and emerging issues......Page 54
2.7.3.1 Hazards and vulnerability......Page 55
2.7.3.2 Adaptive capacity: current and emerging issues......Page 58
2.7.4.1 Hazards and vulnerabilities......Page 59
2.7.4.2 Adaptive capacity: current and emerging issues......Page 61
2.8 Cities, disasters risk reduction and climate change adaptation: critical observations and conclusions......Page 62
REFERENCES......Page 66
3 Urban climate Processes, trends, and projections......Page 69
3.1 Introduction......Page 70
3.1.1 Effects of cities on temperature: urban heat islands......Page 71
3.1.3.1 Shanghai: many urban environmental islands......Page 73
3.2.1 El Niño–Southern Oscillation......Page 75
3.2.2 Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on cities......Page 78
3.2.4 Natural variability and global climate change......Page 79
3.3.1 The climate system and global climate change......Page 80
3.4 Observed climate change in cities......Page 81
3.4.1 Temperature......Page 82
3.4.1.1 Tokyo’s heat island......Page 83
3.4.1.2 Observed temperature trend in São Paulo, Brazil......Page 84
3.4.2.1 Observed precipitation trend in Toronto, Canada......Page 86
3.4.3 Sea level rise......Page 87
3.4.4.1 Hot days in Melbourne, Australia......Page 88
3.5.1.1 Global climate models......Page 89
3.5.1.3 Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios......Page 90
3.5.1.5 Model-based probability......Page 91
3.5.2.1 Temperature......Page 92
3.5.2.3 Sea level rise......Page 96
3.5.2.4 Extreme events......Page 97
3.6 Conclusions and key research questions......Page 103
REFERENCES......Page 105
Part III Urban sectors......Page 109
4 Climate change and urban energy systems......Page 111
4.2.1 System overview......Page 112
4.2.3 Energy system governance......Page 114
4.3 Energy use in cities......Page 115
4.4.1 Energy demand impacts of climate change......Page 118
4.4.2.2 Impacts on power generation......Page 121
4.4.2.3 Climate impacts on energy transmission and distribution......Page 124
4.5.1.1 Climate planning and governance efforts......Page 125
4.5.1.2 Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and programs......Page 128
4.5.1.3 Climate change adaptation policies and programs......Page 130
4.6.1 Knowledge gaps......Page 133
REFERENCES......Page 134
5 Climate change, water, and wastewater in cities......Page 139
5.2.1 Formal water supply and wastewater sector......Page 140
5.2.2 Informal urban water supply sector......Page 143
5.3.1 Vulnerabilities......Page 146
5.3.2.2 Precipitation......Page 150
5.3.3 Interactions of climate change, urban water, and other sectors......Page 153
5.4 Adaptation......Page 155
5.4.2 Step 2: Apply future climate change scenarios......Page 158
5.4.3.3 Policy adaptations......Page 161
5.4.8 Step 8: Monitor and reassess......Page 162
5.5.3 Attention to energy efficiency of water supply expansion......Page 163
5.5.6 Watersheds and river basins......Page 164
5.6.1 Policy considerations......Page 165
REFERENCES......Page 166
6 Climate change and urban transportation systems......Page 171
6.1.2 Role of transportation in climate change......Page 172
6.1.3 Urban transportation and land use......Page 173
6.1.4 Responding to climate change: adaptation and mitigation2......Page 174
6.2 Risk management as a framework for adaptation and mitigation......Page 175
6.3.1 Defining climate risks and methods of risk assessment......Page 177
6.3.3 Examples of climate change risk assessment of urban transport systems......Page 181
6.4.1 Adaptation planning......Page 182
6.4.2 Specific adaptation measures......Page 185
6.4.3 Policy and economic considerations for adaptation......Page 187
6.5.1 Mitigation strategies......Page 188
6.5.2 Assessments of mitigation potential and cost......Page 190
6.5.4 Mitigation policies......Page 191
6.5.5 Financial tools and incentives......Page 192
6.6 Key uncertainties, research needs, and information gaps......Page 195
6.7 Conclusions......Page 196
REFERENCES......Page 199
7 Climate change and human health in cities......Page 205
7.1.1 Why health and climate change for cities?......Page 206
7.1.3 The challenge for cities......Page 207
7.2 Health-related findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report......Page 208
7.3.1 Heat and cold (temperature extremes)......Page 209
7.3.2 Wind, storms, and floods......Page 211
7.3.5 Air quality......Page 212
7.3.7 Vector-borne, food-borne, and water-borne diseases......Page 213
7.4.1 Local geography and environmental conditions......Page 214
7.4.2 Local infrastructure and urban planning......Page 215
7.4.3.2 Collective assets......Page 217
7.4.4 Density and demographics......Page 218
7.5 Adaptation......Page 219
7.5.1 Reducing vulnerability to human health effects from climate change......Page 220
7.5.2 Adaptation measures for specific health risks......Page 221
7.5.2.1 High temperatures, heat waves, and the urban heat island......Page 222
7.5.2.3 Vector-borne diseases......Page 223
7.5.3 Extreme weather events......Page 224
7.6.1 Mitigation policies that benefit health......Page 225
7.6.2 Adaptation policies that benefit health......Page 226
7.6.5 Barriers to action......Page 227
7.7 Research and data needs......Page 229
7.8 Concluding comments......Page 234
REFERENCES......Page 235
Part IV Cross-cutting issues......Page 241
8 The role of urban land in climate change......Page 243
8.1.1 Defining urban land......Page 244
8.1.3 Market and public good aspects of land......Page 245
8.1.4 Urban land and infrastructure......Page 246
8.2.2 Environmental impacts of urbanization......Page 247
8.2.2.1 Built environment and its effect on local climate......Page 249
8.2.3 Slums and vulnerable populations......Page 252
8.3.1 The legal/political framework......Page 253
8.3.3 Types of plans and their limitations......Page 255
8.3.3.1 Metropolitanization requires metropolitan planning......Page 256
8.3.4 Urban land regulation......Page 257
8.3.6 Fiscal aspects of urban land: property taxes and city budgets......Page 258
8.4 Climate change risk......Page 260
8.6 How urban planning can address the impacts of climate change......Page 262
8.6.1 What cities are currently doing......Page 263
8.6.2 Next steps......Page 264
8.8.1 Forecasting urban growth......Page 268
REFERENCES......Page 269
9 Cities and climate change: The challenges for governance......Page 275
9.2.1 Empowered local governance: political and fiscal......Page 276
9.2.2 Jurisdictional boundaries: towards a metropolitan governance of climate change......Page 281
9.2.3 Good planning and effective urban management......Page 284
9.2.4 The challenge of data and measurement: evidence-based policy formulation and monitoring......Page 287
9.2.5 Addressing deeper and enduring risks and long-term vulnerabilities in cities......Page 290
9.2.6 The challenge of inclusive governance......Page 291
9.3 Conclusion......Page 293
REFERENCES......Page 294
Scientists and stakeholders: Key partners in urban climate change mitigation and adaptation......Page 297
Appendix A City case studies and topics in vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation......Page 299
Appendix B Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 301
Coordinating lead authors and lead authors......Page 303
Case study authors......Page 304
Reviewers......Page 306
Index......Page 307