Climate Change and Africa

0521836344......Page 1
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
Notes on contributors......Page 11
Peer reviewers......Page 21
Editor\'s note......Page 23
Foreword by Mostafa K. Tolba......Page 27
Foreword by Michael Zammit Cutajar......Page 28
Foreword by Mikko Pyhala......Page 29
Foreword by Dieter H. Ehhalt......Page 30
Preface by Godwin O. P. Obasi......Page 31
Preface by Wulf Killmann......Page 33
Preface by Sálvano Briceno......Page 34
Preface by Hassan Virji......Page 35
Abbreviations......Page 36
SI prefixes......Page 41
Unit abbreviations......Page 42
Chemical formulae......Page 43
Part I Science......Page 45
The LGM......Page 47
Vegetation......Page 50
1.2.1 Lake level changes......Page 52
1.2.3 Vegetation......Page 54
1.3.1 LGM......Page 56
1.3.2 The LGM to Holocene transition......Page 57
1.3.3 The Holocene......Page 58
1.4.2 Atmospheric trace gas concentrations......Page 60
REFERENCES......Page 61
2.2 The Main Ethiopian Rift: a model area for the study of the various environmental forcings......Page 67
2.4.1 Climate during the transition from the last glacial to the Holocene......Page 68
The late Holocene climate fluctuations......Page 69
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 70
REFERENCES......Page 71
3.1 Introduction......Page 73
3.2 African climate variability: a context for future climate change......Page 74
3.3 Review of African climate change scenarios......Page 76
3.5 Conclusions......Page 80
REFERENCES......Page 82
4.1 Introduction......Page 85
4.2 Simulating African climate change caused by desertification......Page 87
4.4 African drought caused by climatic variations......Page 88
4.5 African desertification and global warming......Page 90
REFERENCES......Page 91
5.3 Normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI)......Page 94
5.5 Flooding in Africa......Page 96
5.6 Drought and desertification in Africa......Page 100
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 102
REFERENCES......Page 103
6.1 Introduction......Page 104
6.3 Chemistry of tropospheric photooxidants......Page 105
6.4 An assessment of the emissions of ozone precursors in tropical regions......Page 107
6.5.1 Model description......Page 108
6.5.3 Impact of biomass burning......Page 109
6.5.4 Impact of lightning......Page 110
6.6 Summary......Page 111
REFERENCES......Page 112
7.1 Introduction......Page 113
7.2 Organic composition of biomass burning emissions......Page 114
7.3 Laboratory studies......Page 116
7.4 Contribution to global VOC emissions......Page 117
7.6 Conclusions......Page 119
7.7 Outlook......Page 120
REFERENCES......Page 121
8.1 Introduction......Page 123
8.2.1 Biomass burning a source of atmospheric emissions......Page 124
8.2.2 Biomass burning emissions and Africa......Page 125
8.2.3 National and subregional emission source strengths......Page 126
8.2.4 An assessment of trace gas sinks......Page 127
8.3.1 Tropospheric ozone pollution......Page 128
8.4.1 Role Africa could play in GHG reduction......Page 129
8.4.3 The challenges......Page 130
REFERENCES......Page 131
9.1 Introduction......Page 134
9.2 Types of soil micro-organism......Page 135
9.4.1 Laboratory techniques......Page 136
9.5.1 NO and NO fluxes......Page 137
9.5.2 CH fluxes......Page 141
9.6 Modelling fluxes and model validation......Page 142
9.7 Impacts of biogenic trace gases on the atmospheric chemistry of the southern African region......Page 144
REFERENCES......Page 145
Part II Sustainable energy development, mitigation and policy......Page 149
10.2 Problems associated with biomass use for energy......Page 151
10.3.1 Biomass flow charts......Page 152
10.3.2 Biomass consumption and responses to scarcity/fuel switching......Page 153
10.4 Scenarios of future biomass energy production and use in sub-Saharan Africa......Page 154
REFERENCES......Page 155
11.1 Introduction......Page 157
11.2 Deforestation: the demand for land and wood......Page 158
11.3 Population trends......Page 160
11.4 Land area and land use......Page 161
11.5 Farmland: possible land-use trends......Page 162
11.6 Wood and other biomass energy and sustainable development......Page 164
11.7 Natural resources: options and opportunities......Page 165
REFERENCES......Page 167
12.1 Introduction......Page 168
12.2.2 African energy sector emissions......Page 169
12.3.1 Regional energy infrastructure......Page 170
12.4.2 Defining sustainable development in the CDM......Page 172
12.4.3 Measuring sustainability for the CDM......Page 173
12.5 The CDM: an instrument for technology transfer......Page 174
12.6 Sharing of credits......Page 175
12.7 Capacity-Building requirements......Page 176
REFERENCES......Page 177
13.1 Introduction......Page 180
13.2 SADC Energy resource endowments and utilization......Page 181
13.3 Energy consumption patterns......Page 183
13.4 Energy and development issues......Page 184
13.5 Baselines and clean energy solutions......Page 185
13.6 Financing under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol......Page 189
13.7 The way forward......Page 190
13.8 Conclusions......Page 191
REFERENCES......Page 192
14.2 Advantages of a regional Approach......Page 194
14.3 Role of regional approaches in global climate change......Page 196
14.4.2 Regional adaptation strategies......Page 197
14.4.3 Regional mitigation strategies......Page 198
Hydropower development......Page 199
Natural gas utilization......Page 200
Transportation coordination......Page 201
Development of regional markets......Page 202
14.5 Conclusions......Page 203
REFERENCES......Page 204
15.1 Introduction......Page 207
15.2 Learning and experience curves......Page 208
15.3 Use of experience curves for analysing PV markets......Page 209
15.4 Impact of SHS sales on future PV price: a static experience curve analysis......Page 210
15.6 Carbon abatement implications of global SHS markets......Page 212
15.8 Renewables scenarios for Africa......Page 213
REFERENCES......Page 214
16.1 Introduction......Page 216
16.3.1 Energy production in South Africa and the Gulf of Guinea......Page 217
16.3.3 Woodland clearing, savannah burning and woodland degradation......Page 218
16.4 Mitigation options......Page 219
16.5 Responses to climate change......Page 220
16.6 Global change in Africa......Page 221
16.7 Global change and international development: a US example......Page 222
REFERENCES......Page 223
17.1.2 Energy supply......Page 226
17.2 Environmental impact of the energy system......Page 227
17.3.1 Energy efficiency......Page 228
17.3.2 Fuel-switching policy......Page 229
17.4 Barriers to improving environmental quality......Page 230
REFERENCES......Page 231
Part III Vulnerability and adaptation......Page 233
18.1 Introduction......Page 235
18.2 The general demographic, physiographic and socio-economic setting......Page 236
18.3 Coastal areas and climate......Page 239
18.4 Deltas......Page 240
18.5 Extreme events: lessons from the recent past......Page 241
18.6 Vulnerability index (VI)......Page 242
18.7 Conclusions......Page 243
REFERENCES......Page 244
19.1 Introduction......Page 248
Strand zone......Page 249
Avifauna of lagoonal wetlands......Page 250
19.2.4 Marine intertidal......Page 251
Sandy beaches......Page 252
19.2.5 Estuaries......Page 254
19.4 Biodiversity and coastal infrastructures......Page 255
19.4.2 Shoreline protection......Page 256
19.5.2 Adaptation options......Page 257
19.5.3 Protection of habitats......Page 258
19.5.4 Community involvement......Page 259
REFERENCES......Page 260
20.1.1 What are El Nino, La Nina and ENSO?......Page 262
Rainfall climatology......Page 264
20.3 Overview of enso influence on the climate of africa......Page 265
20.3.1 Sahel and West Africa......Page 266
Southern Africa......Page 268
20.4.3 The African experience with ENSO: selected key examples of impacts from recent ENSO events......Page 270
Kenya......Page 271
20.5 Conclusion......Page 272
REFERENCES......Page 273
21.1 Introduction......Page 275
21.2.1 The impacts of El Nino in 1997–1998......Page 276
21.2.3 The economic impacts of the 1997–1998 El Nino and 1998–2000 La Nina......Page 277
21.3 Forecasting ENSO at the national level......Page 278
21.4.1 Policy measures as a consequence of the ENSO events in 1997–2000......Page 279
21.5 Future policy responses......Page 280
REFERENCES......Page 282
22.2 Paederus sabaeus, the toxin and clinical effects......Page 284
22.4 Study design......Page 286
22.5 Results......Page 288
22.6 Discussion......Page 289
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 290
REFERENCES......Page 291
23.1 Introduction......Page 292
23.2.1 Rainfall and drought......Page 293
23.2.2 Drought coping mechanisms......Page 296
23.2.3 Indigenous plants......Page 299
23.3 Conclusions and policy implications......Page 301
REFERENCES......Page 302
24.1 Introduction......Page 304
24.3 Evaluation of IAMS with respect to developing regions......Page 306
24.4.1 Food security......Page 309
24.5 Data required for IA modelling......Page 310
24.6 Discussion......Page 311
REFERENCES......Page 313
25.1 Introduction......Page 315
25.2 Climate-related disaster statistics for Africa......Page 316
25.3 Climate variability and change......Page 317
25.4 Disaster risk and risk reduction concepts......Page 320
25.5 Disaster risk reduction......Page 321
25.6 Institutional development of risk reduction in Africa......Page 322
25.7 International strategy for disaster reduction......Page 324
25.8 Conclusion......Page 325
REFERENCES......Page 326
Part IV Capacity-building......Page 329
26.1 Introduction......Page 331
26.3 Botswana – accounting for national priorities in option ranking......Page 332
26.4 Tanzania – extension from energy to forestry and land use......Page 334
26.5 Zambia – negative cost options for households?......Page 335
26.6 Institutional arrangements and capacity-building......Page 337
26.7 Conclusions......Page 338
REFERENCES......Page 339
27.1 Introduction......Page 341
27.2 Multilateral action to address climate change......Page 342
27.3 The opportunities and challenges of addressing climate change in Africa......Page 343
27.4 Identification of capacity-building concerns and needs from initial national communications and other sources......Page 344
Capacity-building relating to assessment and implementation of climate change mitigation options......Page 345
Capacity-building relating to the development and transfer of technology......Page 346
Capacity-building relating to the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation......Page 347
Capacity-building relating to the development and transfer of technology......Page 348
Capacity-building relating to the clean development mechanism (CDM)......Page 349
27.5.1 Financing for capacity-building in priority areas......Page 350
27.6 Conclusion......Page 351
REFERENCES......Page 352
28.1 Introduction......Page 354
28.2 Where to from the present?......Page 355
28.3 Education......Page 356
28.3.1 Formal education sector......Page 357
28.3.2 Community education......Page 358
REFERENCES......Page 359
Part V Lessons from the Montreal Protocol......Page 361
29.2 The development of the ozone agreements......Page 363
29.5 The success of the ozone agreements......Page 364
Political and moral imperative......Page 365
29.6.5 Understanding the new concepts......Page 366
Assessment of technologies......Page 367
Market-based interventions......Page 368
REFERENCES......Page 369
30.3 The importance of industry leadership to the Montreal Protocol......Page 370
30.4 Climate protection is moving toward technical optimism and business opportunity......Page 371
30.7.1 Diplomatic strategies......Page 372
30.8 Lessons for Climate Protection-conclusions and hope for the future......Page 373
REFERENCES......Page 374
31.2 The nature of the environmental problem......Page 375
31.3 The state of scientific understanding......Page 376
31.4 The nature of the response options......Page 377
31.5 The role of assessments of science, technology and economics......Page 378
31.6 The role of developing countries......Page 379
31.7 The nature and appropriateness of emissions targets......Page 380
31.8 Summary and conclusions......Page 381
REFERENCES......Page 382
Index......Page 383