China: The Gathering Threat

Cover......Page 1
Copyright page......Page 8
Contents......Page 11
Foreword......Page 13
A Gathering Danger—Hidden in Plain View......Page 19
Ending Terrorism and the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction......Page 21
Ending China's Unfair Taking of American Jobs and Production......Page 22
Preventing a War of Mutual Miscalculation......Page 24
Russia at a Crossroads......Page 26
An Effective U.S. Strategy......Page 27
The Parting of the Ways: June 4th, 1989......Page 29
The Ensuing Years......Page 30
The New China-Russia Strategic Alignment......Page 32
Indirect Conflict......Page 35
The New Hegemon......Page 36
China and the World: The Pursuit of Dominance in Eight Phases......Page 38
An Alternative Scenario: China and Russia Move Toward Peaceful Democratic Evolution......Page 42
Part I: China......Page 45
2  The First Mao Years, 1949–1965......Page 47
The Mao Years—In Overview......Page 52
Consolidation of Power, Soviet Alliance, Combat Abroad, 1949–1952......Page 55
"Land Reform"—Communists Take Control in the Countryside......Page 58
Agricultural Collectivization, First Five-Year Plan, Differences with the USSR, 1953–1957......Page 60
The Great Leap Forward and Away from the USSR......Page 63
The Growing Rift with the USSR and the Taiwan Crisis of 1954–1955......Page 64
The Great Leap Forward and Communism......Page 67
The Tragic Human Consequences of Mao's Radical Policies......Page 69
An Attempted Shift toward Economic Pragmatism......Page 72
China Attacks India, 1962......Page 73
China's Atomic Bomb and the Threat of Soviet Attacks......Page 74
3  The Cultural Revolution, 1965–1976......Page 75
Examples of Life During the Cultural Revolution......Page 79
Victims of the Cultural Revolution......Page 82
Implications of the Cultural Revolution for China's Future......Page 83
4  Soviet War Threats and the Opening of Relations with the U.S.......Page 87
The Death of General Lin Biao......Page 91
Normalization with the United States......Page 92
Nixon in China......Page 95
The Struggle for Succession, 1976......Page 98
5  Economic Modernization and China-U.S. Relations, 1979–1986......Page 102
The Transition to Deng Xiaoping, 1976–78......Page 103
China and the United States, Mutual Diplomatic Recognition, 1978......Page 105
The Visit of Deng Xiaoping to the U.S.......Page 109
The "Four Modernizations" and the "Newly Outward"......Page 111
Industrial Modernization......Page 113
"The New Leap Outward"......Page 115
Mao on Trial and Changes to Prevent a Recurrence......Page 116
Political and Social Impact of Modernization......Page 118
U.S.-China Cooperation......Page 122
Problems Associated with Modernization......Page 125
6  Communist Hardliners Crush Political Liberalization, 1986–1989......Page 127
Prelude to Tiananmen......Page 133
Communist Party Factions and the Tiananman Massacre, June 1989......Page 135
The Tiananmen Massacre of June 3–4, 1989 And Its Aftermath......Page 137
On Guard Against "Peaceful Evolution"......Page 143
Post-Tiananmen Sanctions by the United States, Japan, and Other Democracies......Page 144
China Again Defines the U.S. As the Main Enemy......Page 148
8  U.S.-China Relations, 1993–2000......Page 152
China Reaffirms That the U.S. Is Its Main Enemy......Page 154
Clinton's Retreat, 1994......Page 156
The 1995–1996 Taiwan Missile Crisis......Page 157
Corporate Interests and National Security......Page 160
China and the 1996 Presidential Election......Page 163
The U.S.-China Summits of 1997 And 1998......Page 165
The Clinton-Jiang Summit, June 1998......Page 167
China's War Plan Delivered to the U.S., 1999......Page 169
China's Second Threat of Nuclear Attack on the U.S.......Page 172
After Permanent Normal Trade Relations—Clinton Says No to Missile Defense......Page 175
9  A New Congressional Approach to China......Page 179
Congressional Investigations......Page 182
The Rumsfeld Commission......Page 183
Report of the Bipartisan Committee on China......Page 185
Part II: Russia......Page 193
10  The Soviet Era in Overview......Page 195
Lenin Leads the Communists to Power......Page 196
The Stalin Era: 1929–53......Page 199
Institutional Communism: 1953–1985......Page 202
The Communist Party-KGB Regime......Page 203
11  Gorbachev and the End of the USSR, 1985–1991......Page 207
Toward Reform Communism......Page 208
"Changing the Method of Rule"......Page 210
Turning Points in 1989–1990 In the USSR and Eastern Europe......Page 211
"A New Base of Power"......Page 212
Eastern Europe......Page 213
The Republics vs. the USSR......Page 215
Return of the Hard-liners......Page 217
The Unraveling of the Soviet Union......Page 218
12  The Yeltsin Era, 1992–2000......Page 221
Two Fateful Decisions......Page 222
The Realities of the Soviet-era Economy......Page 224
Results of the Economic Reform Program......Page 228
The Political Struggle: 1992–1993......Page 229
The Three Pillars of the Emerging "Party of Power"......Page 234
The "Power Ministries"......Page 235
The United States and the Major Democracies......Page 236
Financial-Industrial Groups (the "Tycoons")......Page 237
The Elections of 1995 And 1996—The Communists Seek Restoration......Page 240
Dangerous Challenges to Yeltsin......Page 243
The Russian Financial-Political Crisis of 1998: The Rise of Primakov......Page 246
Seven Days in May 1999......Page 248
The Yeltsin Era in Perspective......Page 252
Negative Aspects......Page 253
Positive Aspects......Page 255
Putin—The Path to the Kremlin......Page 257
Putin as Prime Minister......Page 263
Putin as Acting President......Page 266
President Putin: Words, Actions, and Their Implications......Page 268
A Strong Central Government......Page 269
Economic Revival......Page 270
Political Democracy, The Media......Page 271
The Law Enforcement System and Espionage......Page 276
Patriotic Education and Soviet Symbols......Page 278
Cooperation and Integration, January 1992–October 1993......Page 282
Limited Cooperation and Increased Russian Assertiveness, November 1993–December 1995......Page 286
Dual Foreign Policy: "Cold Peace," Increasing Opposition to the U.S. and NATO, January 1996–Present......Page 291
The 1999 Kosovo Crisis and Its Political Effects......Page 297
After the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign Against Serbia......Page 303
Preserving Russia, the Near Abroad......Page 305
The Stated Purposes of Putin's Foreign Policy......Page 308
Relations with the United States......Page 309
Russia and Regimes Hostile to the United States......Page 311
The Russian Perspective......Page 313
The U.S. Perspective......Page 314
Part III: China and Russia......Page 319
15  China's International Actions......Page 321
The South China Sea......Page 322
China's Territorial Disputes with Japan, India......Page 326
Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction......Page 330
Promise and Forget: Chinese Reactions to U.S. Proliferation Concerns......Page 333
Violation of International Arms Control Treaties and Agreements......Page 337
16  "A Rich Country and a Strong Army": Military Modernization and Buildup......Page 339
Espionage and Covert Action......Page 341
The Los Alamos Nuclear Weapons Secrets......Page 343
Covert Action......Page 345
Diversion and Extraction of Militarily Useful U.S. Technology......Page 347
Asymmetric Warfare: "Gaining the Initiative by Striking First"......Page 350
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles......Page 351
Medium/Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles......Page 353
Air Forces......Page 354
Naval Forces......Page 355
Ground Forces......Page 356
Information Operations/Warfare......Page 357
Mutual Misjudgments: "Winning Victory with One Strike"......Page 359
17  The New Russia/China Alliance......Page 364
Russia and China: From Normalization to "Strategic Partnership"......Page 365
The Russia-China Alignment Intensifies, 1999......Page 371
The North Korean Stratagem......Page 377
Putin at the Russia-China Summits......Page 380
Consequences and Implications......Page 382
1  China-Russia Agreement on Major International Issues......Page 383
2  Transfer of Weapons of Mass Destruction......Page 385
3  Russian Sale of Advanced Weapons to China......Page 387
4  Strengthening Authoritarian Forces Within Russia......Page 391
Alignment or Alliance: The Russia-China Treaty of 2001......Page 392
18  China: Stealthy Strategy toward Global Dominance......Page 395
Reasons for China's Pursuit of Dominance in Asia and the World......Page 396
1  Preserve the Power of the Communist Party of China......Page 397
2  Counter the Military Power of the United States and Its Allies......Page 398
3  Ensure Access to Economic Resources......Page 399
4  The Fusion of China's Imperial and Communist Traditions......Page 400
Methods: The Strategy of Global Political-Economic Domination......Page 401
Eight Stages Toward Global Domination......Page 404
I.  Normalization with the Industrial Democracies, 1978–Continuing......Page 405
II.  Asian Regional Persuasion/Coercion, I980s–Continuing......Page 406
India......Page 407
Neighboring States......Page 411
North Korea and South Korea......Page 413
ASEAN......Page 416
States Hostile to the United States......Page 419
Key Third World States......Page 422
Key Sea Lanes: Strategic Denial......Page 423
The Panama Canal......Page 424
III.  Asian Preponderance: Taking Control of Taiwan (2005–2008?)......Page 427
Intimidate with Force, Seduce with Money......Page 428
IV.  Asian Dominance: The End of the U.S. Alliance with Japan  (2008–2012)......Page 432
V.  The De Facto End of NATO: The Neutralization of Western Europe  (2010–2014)......Page 437
VI.  China Obtains the Russian Far East, China Is Dominant Over Russia  (2014–2020)......Page 439
VII.  The United States Is Geopolitically Isolated, China Is Preponderant in the World  (2020–2023)......Page 441
VIII.  China Is Dominant in the World (2025-?)......Page 443
19  Russia and China's Two-Track Policies: Destination Unknown......Page 446
How to Win Friends and Influence (Erstwhile) Enemies......Page 448
A More Dangerous World......Page 451
Telling the Truth About U.S. International Purposes and Actions......Page 456
The Truth About Communist China......Page 459
U.S. Assistance......Page 460
Alliances and Security Relationships......Page 461
Missile Defense......Page 465
Secure Military and Military-Related Technology......Page 472
22  Russia: Incentives for Democracy and Cooperation with the West......Page 476
Create Incentives for a Peaceful, Democratic Russia......Page 478
Russia to End Military Aspects of Its Alliance with Communist China—Or Lose Economic Benefits......Page 479
Russia to End Sales of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Related Technology......Page 480
Enhancing Russia Domestic Development......Page 481
Help Russia Understand the Threat from China......Page 482
The Stalin Mistake: Arming the Potential Aggressor......Page 483
Gradual Annexation: The Rising Tide of Illegal Chinese Immigration......Page 484
China's Geostrategic Moves Against Russia......Page 485
23  China: Realistic Engagement, Not Unconditional Engagement......Page 488
Failures of U.S. Unconditional Engagement: National Security Interests......Page 493
Failures of Unconditional Engagement: Human Rights/Political Pluralism......Page 494
Failures of Unconditional Engagement: U.S. Worker and Economic Interests......Page 496
Realistic Engagement with China......Page 499
24  Encouraging Democracy and Human Rights in Russia and China......Page 503
Russia......Page 506
The People's Republic of China......Page 511
Citizens Seeking Fair, Legal, Effective Governance: Vulnerabilities of the Regime......Page 514
Reform Elements Within the Chinese Communist Party......Page 519
Possible Stages of Party Evolution Toward Political Reform......Page 523
"Socialist Democracy"......Page 524
"Limited Social Democracy"......Page 525
Prodemocratic Citizens of China......Page 526
Prodemocracy Chinese Exiles......Page 527
The Program for Democracy in China......Page 529
Analysis......Page 530
Communications......Page 531
Assistance for Prodemocratic Chinese in China and Abroad......Page 534
Monitoring of Relations Among China, the U.S., and the World......Page 536
"Parliament in Exile"......Page 537
Acknowledgments......Page 541
1  Reform, Repression, and the New China-Russia Alliance......Page 543
2  The First Mao Years, 1949–1965......Page 544
4  Soviet War Threats and the Opening of Relations with the U.S.......Page 546
5  Economic Modernization and China-U.S. Relations, 1979–1986......Page 547
6  Communist Hardliners Crush Political Liberalization, 1986–1989......Page 548
7  China-U.S. Relations after Tiananmen, 1989–1992......Page 549
8  U.S.-China Relations, 1993–2000......Page 550
9  A New Congressional Approach to China......Page 552
10  The Soviet Era in Overview......Page 553
11  Gorbachev and the End of the USSR, 1985–1991......Page 555
12  The Yeltsin Era, 1992–2000......Page 556
13  The New Century with President Putin......Page 558
14  U.S.-Russia Relations Since 1992......Page 560
15  China's International Actions......Page 562
16  "A Rich Country and a Strong Army": Military Modernization and Buildup......Page 565
17  The New Russia/China Alliance......Page 567
18  China: Stealthy Strategy toward Global Dominance......Page 569
19  Russia and China's Two-Track Policies: Destination Unknown......Page 573
21  A Prudent and Proactive U.S. Strategy......Page 574
22  Russia: Incentives for Democracy and Cooperation with the West......Page 575
23  China: Realistic Engagement, Not Unconditional Engagement......Page 576
24  Encouraging Democracy and Human Rights in Russia and China......Page 578
C......Page 583
D......Page 584
H......Page 585
I......Page 586
L......Page 587
M......Page 588
P......Page 589
S......Page 590
T......Page 591
V......Page 592
Z......Page 593