Candidate Strategies and Electoral Competition in the Russian Federation: Democracy without Foundation

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Contents......Page 9
1 Elections and Development of Democratic Capacity......Page 11
Why Study Russia?......Page 14
A Strategy for Theory Development: Linking Individual Behavior,
Elections, and System-Level Outcomes......Page 16
The Plan of the Book......Page 20
2 One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: Russia's Failed Consolidation in Comparative Context......Page 24
Defining and Measuring Democratic Consolidation in the Postcommunist Context......Page 26
Elections and Democratic Consolidation: Promoting Elite
Commitment and Interest Aggregation......Page 30
Structure and Agency: Explaining Different Trajectories
of Democratic Development......Page 32
Post-Soviet Versus Postcommunist......Page 33
Economic Explanations......Page 34
International Influences......Page 35
Institutional Explanations: Majoritarian Versus Proportional Structures......Page 36
Strategy and Choice: The Primacy of Actions in Consolidation......Page 37
Testing Theories of Consolidation: Model and Results......Page 38
Interpreting the Results......Page 42
Democratic Deepening: Forging Linkages and Defining Priorities......Page 44
Looking Beyond Political Parties: The Role of Infrastructure......Page 45
Looking Ahead: A Model of Candidates’ Choices......Page 51
3 The Microfoundations of Democratic Responsiveness: Candidate Strategies and Electoral Infrastructure......Page 53
A Research Design for Testing the Micro Model......Page 55
Candidate Strategies as the Dependent Variable......Page 56
Explaining Candidate Decisions: The Independent Variables......Page 58
Electoral Institutions......Page 59
Information and Uncertainty......Page 63
Candidate Goals......Page 67
Electoral Resources......Page 69
Conclusion: Candidate Behavior and Electoral Infrastructure......Page 79
4 Many Candidates, Few Choices......Page 81
Defining the Dependent Variable: Coordination and Cooperation
in Candidate Entry Decisions......Page 82
Who Are the Candidates?......Page 86
The Impact of Rules: Defining the Costs of Entry......Page 88
Assessing the Likelihood of Success: Institutions and Context......Page 97
Electoral Systems and the Probability of Success......Page 98
Stocking the Pool: Defining the Benefits of Candidacy......Page 102
The Last Chance for Coordination: Strategic Withdrawal......Page 105
Conclusion: Candidate Entry, Democrats, and Democracy......Page 109
5 To Join or Not to Join: Candidate Affiliation in Transitional Russia......Page 112
Defining the Dependent Variable: Partisan
or Independent Candidates......Page 114
Characterizing the Affiliation Decision......Page 116
Predicting Affiliation: Goals, Resources, and Reputations......Page 123
Explaining Affiliation......Page 126
Explaining Which Party: How Candidates Choose Among Options......Page 130
Conclusion: Coordination, Cooperation, and Party Building......Page 134
The Consequences for Party Organizations......Page 135
Affiliation and Information......Page 137
Affiliation, Coordination, and Cooperation......Page 138
6 Finding Fit: Candidates and Their Districts......Page 141
Defining District Selection......Page 142
Yaroslavl: Two Candidates, Two Paths......Page 148
Explaining District Selection......Page 150
Redistricting......Page 151
Residency Requirements......Page 152
Candidate Resources......Page 155
Candidate Goals......Page 156
Other Possible Influences......Page 157
The Determinants of District Choice......Page 158
Untangling the Factors Behind District Selection: Multivariate Analysis......Page 161
Incumbents and District Selection......Page 167
The Effects of District Choice on Electoral Infrastructure......Page 171
7 Campaigning for the Duma: Mixed Markets, Mixed Messages......Page 175
Coordination and Cooperation Dilemmas in Electoral Campaigns......Page 177
Campaign Organization and Activity......Page 180
Different Constituencies, Different Messages:
Predicting Campaign Appeals......Page 183
Explaining Mixed Messages......Page 186
Political Parties, Issues, and Target Constituencies......Page 194
The Accumulation of Infrastructure: The Problem of Inference......Page 199
The Meaning of Elections in New Democracies......Page 205
8 Democrats, Democratic Transitions, and Democracy......Page 207
Russian Democracy: Past, Present, and Future......Page 208
The Advantages of a Candidate-Centered Approach......Page 212
Political Parties and Consolidation......Page 214
Political Institutions and Consolidation......Page 216
The Impact of Uncertainty on Democratic Consolidation......Page 218
Conclusion......Page 220
Appendix A: The Sample......Page 223
Block 1: Demographic Information......Page 225
Block 4: Experience as a Candidate......Page 226
Block 5: Electoral Experience......Page 227
Block 6: The 1999 Campaign......Page 228
Appendix C: Variables Constructed from Survey Data......Page 233
Cultural Variables......Page 239
Political Variables......Page 240
Works Cited......Page 243
Index......Page 255