Can Social Protection Be an Engine for Inclusive Growth?

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations and acronyms
Executive summary
Assessment and recommendations
	A conceptual framework to measure the impact of social protection on inclusive growth
		Social protection may affect inclusive growth through several transmission channels
		The transmission channels may operate at the micro, meso and macro levels
		The measurement framework proposed in this study focuses on the micro- determinants of inclusive growth for which a theoretical link exists with social protection and which can be measured in non-specialised household surveys.
		According to theoretical expectations, many micro-level effects of social protection on inclusive growth shall be positive. Other effects would a priori be unclear or negative.
	Evidence on the micro-level impact of social assistance on inclusive growth
		Social assistance tends to spur inclusive growth largely by improving children and youth education outcomes among low-income households
		The inclusive growth effect of social assistance is less apparent for the working age and elderly population
	Evidence on the micro-level impact of social insurance on inclusive growth
		The inclusive growth impact of social insurance for children and youth is not as obvious as that of social assistance
		Among the working age and the elderly, social insurance tends to support inclusive growth mostly through a positive effect on consumption and a small negative effect on fertility …
		…but the positive impact of social insurance on inclusive growth may be moderated by a small negative effect on labour supply, and to a lower extent, on savings.
	Making the case for social protection
		Argument 1: Under international human rights law, countries are legally obligated to establish social protection systems.
		Argument 2: Social protection is an effective tool to reduce poverty and tackle vulnerability.
		Argument 3: Social protection can also make good economic sense.
Chapter 1.  Measuring the impact of social protection on inclusive growth
	Inclusive growth and social protection
		Inclusive growth
		Social protection
	Linkages between social protection and inclusive growth
		Micro linkages
			Growth effect
			Effect on inequality reduction
		Meso and macro linkages
			Growth effect
			Effect on inequality reduction
	Micro-level impacts of social protection on inclusive growth
		Social protection can support consumption and alter savings patterns
		Social protection appear to have mixed effects on labour supply
		Social protection seems to improve education outcomes in poorer households
		Social protection can foster innovation and investments among the poor
		Social protection tend to lower fertility rates
		Social protection seems to have mixed effects on migration
	References
Chapter 2.  Micro-level impact of social assistance on inclusive growth
	Progressivity of social assistance
	Impact of social assistance on micro drivers of growth
		Impact of social assistance on children and youth
			Cash transfers seem to spur investments in schooling
			Conditional cash transfers appear to have the strongest effect on poor students
			Scholarships tend to impact positively on educational attainment of the poorest students
			Conditional cash transfers are likely to reduce child labour
			Conditional cash transfers may not reduce early pregnancy
			Universal child benefits seem to have no or limited effects on education
		Impact of social assistance on working-age individuals and the elderly
			Conditional cash transfers appear to have mixed effects on employment
			Conditional cash transfers tend to have positive or no effects on investments in small businesses
			Conditional cash transfers do not seem to impact investments in formal businesses
			Conditional cash transfers can reduce fertility rates
			Scholarships for poor students seem to have positive spillover effects on household food consumption and investments
			Social pensions can boost household consumption and investments
	References
		Annex 2.A. Social assistance in Brazil, Germany, Ghana and Indonesia
	Brazil
	Germany
	Ghana
	Indonesia
	Annex notes
		Annex 2.B. Measuring the impact of social assistance programmes on individual and household outcomes – methodological approach
Chapter 3.  Micro-level impact of social insurance on inclusive growth
	Progressivity of social insurance
	Impact of social insurance on micro drivers of growth
		Impact of social insurance on children and youth
			The effect of social insurance on education seem to vary across countries and programmes
			Evidence on the impact of contributory pensions on child labour and early pregnancy appears to be limited
		Impact of social insurance on working-age individuals and the elderly
			Contributory pensions are likely to increase consumption and reduce savings
			Contributory pensions can drive down labour supply
			Contributory pensions seem to have a small negative impact on fertility rates
			Social insurance may have a negative effect on migration outflows
	Notes
	References
		Annex 3.A. Social insurance in Brazil, Germany and Indonesia
	Brazil
	Germany
	Indonesia
		Annex 3.B. Measuring the impact of social insurance programmes on individual and household outcomes – methodological approach
	Brazil
	Germany
	Indonesia