Breaking the Cycle: A Strategy for Conflict-sensitive Rural Growth in Burundi (World Bank Working Papers)

Contents......Page 4
Foreword......Page 8
Foreword......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 12
Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 14
Executive Summary......Page 16
A History of Cyclical Violence......Page 20
Investigating Conflict at the Level of the Community, the State, and the Private Sector......Page 21
Figure 1.3. Growth Comparisons......Page 25
Key Lessons from International Best Practices......Page 27
The Sources of Rural Growth Strategy......Page 29
CHAPTER 2 Burundi’s Growth: The Need for Long-lasting and Stable Performance......Page 40
Understanding Burundian Growth Patterns......Page 41
Table 2.1. Contribution of Three Sectors to the Economy, 1970–2005......Page 49
CHAPTER 3 Agricultural Recovery Food Security and Beyond......Page 54
Food Security and Food Aid......Page 55
Food Crop Subsector......Page 63
Livestock Subsector......Page 76
CHAPTER 4 Export Crops Toward a Significant Contribution to Growth......Page 88
Figure 4.1. Burundi Coffee Production (‘000 60 kg bags)......Page 89
Tea Subsector......Page 96
Figure 4.6. Burundi Horticultural Exports, 1987–2002......Page 105
CHAPTER 5 Overcoming the Main Obstacles to Growth......Page 116
Ensuring Security of Goods and People......Page 117
Fostering the Development of Infrastructure......Page 122
Table 5.8. Investment Needs per Year......Page 133
APPENDIX: Methodology......Page 142
References......Page 146
LIST OF FIGURES......Page 5
Table 1.1. Recommended Actions To Strengthen Rural Growth......Page 30
Table 2.2. Occupational Status of Youths in Burundi, 2006 (percent)......Page 51
Table 3.2. Impact of the WFP on the Populations (econometric approach)......Page 59
Table 3.3. Performance of WFP Targeting and Other Public Transfers in 2006......Page 61
Table 3.4. Simplified Typology of Production Systems Based on Soil Fertility Management Practices......Page 65
Table 3.5. Characteristics of Livestock Production Systems Found in Burundi......Page 79
Table 4.1. Production of Made Tea in Burundi (tonnes)......Page 99
Table 4.3. Comparison of Shipping Cost of Charter vs. Regularly Scheduled Passenger Flights (US$/kg)......Page 109
Table 4.4. Markets, Constraints, and Opportunities for Burundi......Page 111
Table 4.5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Mainstream and Niche Markets......Page 112
Table 5.3. Access to the RoadNetwork......Page 127
Table 5.4. Actions Required by the Transport Sector......Page 129
Figure 5.9. Water Tariff (US$/m3)......Page 131
Table 5.7. Tariffs in US Dollar Cents/Minute and Number of Subscribers......Page 132
Table 5.9. Ranking of Burundi’s Business Climate......Page 134
Figure 1.1. Government Expenditures in Burundi, Mozambique, Uganda, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone (percent of GDP, 1960 to 2005)......Page 22
Figure 1.2. Weak Institutions Lead to Conflict and Lead to Further Institutional Destruction......Page 23
Figure 2.1. Agriculture and Real GDP (annual growth rates, 1970 to 2005)......Page 42
Figure 2.2. GDP Growth, Government Expenditures, and ODA, 1970 to 2005......Page 45
Figure 2.3. Satisfaction with Public Services Among Users, Burundi 2004......Page 52
Figure 2.4. What Should Be the Priorities of Your Community? Burundi 2004......Page 53
Figure 3.1. Hunger Index, International Comparison......Page 56
Figure 3.3. Population Share (percent)......Page 57
Figure 3.4. Proportion of Individuals Living in Households with a Daily Caloric Intake per Adult Equivalent Below 1,900 kcal......Page 58
Figure 3.5. Composition of Agricultural GDP, 1980–2003......Page 64
Figure 3.6. Trends in Food Crop Production per Capita, 1990–2005......Page 66
Figure 3.7. Profitability of Principal Food Crops in Burundi (returns to land, labor)......Page 67
Figure 3.8. Proportion of Marketed Food Crops, Burundi, Early 2000s......Page 68
Figure 3.9. Livestock Numbers, 2005 as Percentage of 1999......Page 80
Figure 4.2. Annual Arabica Prices (US$/kg)......Page 90
Figure 4.3. Comparison of Prices Paid to Producers in East African Countries......Page 92
Figure 4.4. Potential Impact of Key Actions on Tea Industry Revenue......Page 102
Figure 4.5. Twelve Key Turnaround Activities Required to Upgrade the Competitiveness ofthe Tea Industry in Burundi......Page 104
Figure 5.1. Infrastructure Expenditures by Sector......Page 124
Figure 5.3. How Investors Perceive Quality Infrastructure......Page 125
Figure 5.4. Electrical Tariffs (US$/MW)......Page 126
Figure 5.6. Road Traffic as a Percentage of Ground Traffic......Page 128
Figure 5.8. Access to Potable Water in Urban and Rural Areas, 2001......Page 130
LIST OF BOXES......Page 6
Box 5.2. Are Interest Rates Too High?......Page 139