Beyond the Gap : How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need While Protecting the Planet

Cover
Half Title
Title
Copyright
Contents
Acknowledgments
Key Messages
About the Contributors
Abbreviations
Overview
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	How Much New Infrastructure Is Needed?
	Scenario Approaches Allow for Informed Policy Making
	Operations and Maintenance Play a Major Role in Costs
	In Sum
	Notes
	References
1 Making Infrastructure Needs Assessments Useful and Relevant
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	Why Is Estimating Infrastructure Needs So Difficult?
	A Framework to Make Infrastructure Investment Needs Assessments Useful
	In Sum
	Notes
	References
2 Water, Sanitation, and Irrigation
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	Water and Sanitation: MDG or SDG Makes All the Difference
	Irrigation: A Question of How Much to Expand
	In Sum
	Notes
	References
3 Power
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	Universal Access Costs Are Driven by Policy Choices regarding the Strategy to Increase Access
	Factoring Climate Change into Investment Needs Estimates
	South America: Bringing Climate and Demand Constraints Together
	In Sum
	Notes
	References
4 Transport
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	Rural Accessibility
	Urban Transport
	Global Transport Needs
	In Sum
	Annex 4A: Transport Investment Can Have Positive Impacts on Welfare but Hide Negative Impacts for Some Actors and for the Environment
	Notes
	References
5 Flood Protection
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	Costing Coastal and River Flood Protection Strategies
	Future Investment Costs Depend on Construction Costs and Risk Aversion
	How Different Regions Fare Depends on the Protection Strategy
	Protection Strategies Should Budget for Long-Term Maintenance Expenses
	In Sum
	Notes
	References
6 Infrastructure and Disruptive Technologies
	Key Messages
	Introduction
	New Technologies Are Enabling Disruptions and Transformations
	New Technologies Could Give Rise to Very Different Futures
	What Governments Can Do (and Avoid Doing)
	In Sum
	Annex 6A: Methodology to Derive the Three Scenarios
	Note
	References
Technical Appendix
Boxes
	2.1 International goals on water, sanitation, hygiene, and irrigation
	3.1 The multitier framework
	3.2 Putting a price tag on transitioning to a carbon-free world
	3.3 By 2030, a 1.5C scenario is similar to a 2C scenario for electricity generation investments
	5.1 Protecting New Orleans from flooding
	6.1 How our experts see a likely technology future (by 2040-ish)
	6.2 Our three technology-deployment scenarios
Figures
	O.1 The cost for infrastructure investments ranges from 2 percent to 8 percent of GDP per year in low- and middle-income countries
	O.2 The goal and the choice of technology are the main drivers of investment costs
	O.3 Public support policies drive investment costs in irrigation
	O.4 Within Sub-Saharan Africa, the financial burden of reaching universal electricity access varies significantly
	O.5 A 2C world may cost less than the business-as-usual one—or a lot more
	O.6 Models vary as to the extent to which decarbonization relies on stranded assets and reduced consumption
	O.7 The choice of terrestrial mode and rail occupancy drive transport investment costs
	O.8 The biggest burden in urban transport investment is on upper-middle-income countries
	O.9 Upgrading rural roads in Sierra Leone becomes costly—fast
	O.10 The cost of greater accessibility is much lower using gravel rather than paved roads in dry climates
	O.11 The choice of protection level, combined with construction costs, shapes river flood protection capital costs
	O.12 Construction costs, combined with risk aversion, shape coastal protection capital costs
	O.13 Operations and maintenance spending matters as much as capital spending for water and sanitation
	O.14 The technology mix for electricity determines the variable cost burden
	O.15 Maintenance may cost as much as or more than new investments in transport
	2.1 In South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, new capital spending needs exceed replacement costs for existing assets
	2.2 The goal and the choice of technology are the main drivers of investment costs
	2.3 Sub-Saharan Africa faces the highest capital cost of achieving universal access to water and sanitation
	2.4 Operations and maintenance spending matters as much as capital spending for water and sanitation
	2.5 The affordability of expanding water and sanitation services could be an issue for Sub-Saharan Africa, unlike other regions
	2.6 Public support policies drive investment costs in irrigation
	2.7 South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa bear the highest investment costs in irrigation
	2.8 Public support for irrigation increases food security in low- and middle-income countries
	B3.1.1 Improving attributes of energy supply leads to higher tiers of access
	3.1 The cost of achieving universal access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa depends on the service tier targeted
	3.2 Within Sub-Saharan Africa, the financial burden of reaching universal electricity access varies significantly
	3.3 An increasing share of persons gaining access to electricity uses low-carbon options
	3.4 The optimal mix of technology varies with the level of electricity service
	3.5 High variable power sector costs are a major challenge, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa
	3.6 Electrification costs are much higher if the total cost of service is included
	3.7 Sub-Saharan Africa faces high annual fixed operations and maintenance costs for electricity
	3.8 High nominal access can mask low reliable access to electricity in major Sub-Saharan African cities
	3.9 A 2C world may cost less than the business-as-usual one—or a lot more
	3.10 Models disagree more in some regions than in others
	3.11 The low-carbon share of investment rises progressively
	3.12 Many models find many ways to meet the climate change constraint on the supply side
	3.13 Electricity consumption falls as the climate constraint tightens
	3.14 Much of the coal-fired power infrastructure in the low- and middle-income world could become stranded assets by 2030
	B3.3.1 Between 2015 and 2030, the 1.5C and the 2C investment paths for the power sector are very similar
	3.15 Variable costs are lower than capital costs for power infrastructure in South America
	3.16 Total costs of electricity in South America are driven by cost of capital, demand, and CO[sub(2)] constraint
	4.1 Upgrading rural roads in Sierra Leone becomes costly—fast
	4.2 The cost of greater accessibility depends on many country-related factors
	4.3 Road paving can have a major impact on forest cover
	4.4 The cost of greater accessibility is much lower using gravel rather than paved roads in dry climates
	4.5 A growing role exists for public transport
	4.6 Better planning lowers urban transport needs by 20 percent
	4.7 The biggest burden in urban transport investment is on upper-middle-income countries
	4.8 Large differences in urban density around the world are maintained in the planning scenarios
	4.9 Urban planning and climate change mitigation must be coordinated
	4.10 Operating costs for urban transport are high
	4.11 Global transport infrastructure investment needs are highest for road and rail
	4.12 The choice of terrestrial mode and rail occupancy drive transport investment costs
	4.13 Maintenance may cost as much as or more than new investments in transport
	4A.1 Investments in transport corridors can create both winners and losers
	5.1 Construction costs, combined with risk aversion, shape coastal protection capital costs
	5.2 The optimal coastal protection strategy based on CBA reduces long-term costs
	5.3 The choice of protection level, combined with construction costs, shapes river flood protection capital costs
	5.4 For river foods, maintaining 2015 risk levels might be unaffordable in Sub-Saharan Africa
	5.5 For coastal foods, the optimal protection strategy based on CBA invests more than the low-risk-tolerance strategy only in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
	A.1 Overview of the SSP space
	A.2 Quantitative projections for demography, urbanization, and GDP in low- and middle-income countries, 2015–30
Maps
	4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa stands out for rural accessibility issues
	5.1 Using open or closed riverine coastal protection in the Netherlands
Tables
	O.1 In the preferred scenario, investment costs are the highest for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
	O.2 Policy choices on tiers of service drive costs of electrification
	O.3 The preferred scenario uses low-carbon modes and accompanying policies for rail and public transport
	O.4 Universal access to paved roads is not within countries’ reach by 2030
	1.1 The range of estimated annual infrastructure investment needs in the recent literature is quite large
	1.2 Possible indicators for measuring infrastructure services, by sector
	2.1 Overview of the assumptions and models used in this chapter
	2.2 A long way to go to reach universal coverage on water and sanitation
	2.3 Possible strategies for providing water and sanitation vary with the level and rollout of service
	2.4 Various options are available for delivering water and sanitation services
	2.5 Supporting irrigation helps to address hunger but is no panacea for climate change and biodiversity
	2.6 Public support for irrigation induces shifts toward more water-intensive crops
	3.1 Overview of the assumptions and models used in this chapter
	3.2 What should the new level of customer consumption of electricity be?
	3.3 Policy choices on tiers of service drive costs of electrification
	4.1 Overview of the assumptions and models used in this chapter
	4.2 High road maintenance costs pose a hurdle in Sub-Saharan Africa
	4.3 Universal access to paved roads is not within countries’ reach by 2030
	4.4 Drone delivery helps to increase social integration in rural areas
	4.5 Major gaps remain in the availability of mass transit infrastructure
	4.6 The preferred scenario uses low-carbon modes and accompanying policies for rail and public transport
	5.1 Overview of the assumptions and models used in this chapter
	5.2 Protection standards vary with wealth and location
	5.3 A wide range of sea-level rise scenarios
	5.4 East and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have the highest adaptation deficits in coastal protection
	6.1 General levels of technology deployment, by scenario and sector