Between Peace and War: 40th Anniversary Revised Edition

Preface to the First Edition......Page 5
Prologue to the 40th Anniversary Edition......Page 9
Deterrence......Page 14
Typology of Crisis......Page 22
Context......Page 32
Structure of the Book......Page 35
Contents......Page 44
List of Figures......Page 46
List of Tables......Page 47
Underlying Versus Immediate Causes of War......Page 48
Definition of Crisis......Page 55
Selection of Cases......Page 59
Structure of the Book......Page 65
Part I: The Origins of Crisis......Page 72
Chapter 2: Justification of Hostility......Page 73
Justification of Hostility......Page 75
The Tactics of Justifying Hostility......Page 79
An Alternative Pattern of Crisis......Page 87
Chapter 3: Spinoff Crises......Page 96
The Origins of Spinoff Crises......Page 97
The Politics of Spinoff Crises......Page 109
Chapter 4: Brinkmanship......Page 116
The Goals of Brinkmanship......Page 117
The Origins of Brinkmanship......Page 120
Multiple Incentives......Page 138
Commitments and Opportunities......Page 140
Commitments Should Be Defensible......Page 145
A State Must Convince Possible Adversaries of Its Resolve......Page 146
Part II: The Politics of Crisis......Page 170
Chapter 5: Cognitive Closure and Crisis Politics......Page 171
Cognitive Consistency and Misperception......Page 172
Decisional Conflicts and Defensive Avoidance......Page 176
Cognitive Processes and Decision-Making Pathologies......Page 181
Defensive Avoidance and Unconscious Conflict......Page 185
The July Crisis: A Case Study......Page 188
Chapter 6: The Sources of Misperception......Page 232
The Politicization of Bureaucracy......Page 237
The Primacy of Domestic Politics......Page 251
The Role of National Self-Images......Page 273
Conclusions......Page 301
Chapter 7: The Context of Crisis......Page 337
The Variety of Military Options......Page 340
Fear of Strategic Disadvantage......Page 344
Degree of Military Confidence......Page 348
Attitude Toward War......Page 353
Perceptions of the Inevitability of Conflict......Page 358
Prevention Versus Preparation for War......Page 366
Crisis Type and Crisis Outcome......Page 387
Stress and Crisis Decision-Making......Page 389
The Limitations of Deterrence......Page 394
Problems of Coordination and Control......Page 401
The Future of Crisis Management......Page 410
Part III: Crisis and International Relations......Page 436
Chapter 9: Crisis as a Learning Experience......Page 437
Crisis and the Intensification of Hostility......Page 438
Crisis and the Amelioration of Hostility: The Fashoda Crisis......Page 446
The Lessons of Fashoda and Cuba......Page 455
Thucydides Rebutted......Page 469
Chapter 11: World War I, Crisis Management, and International Relations Theory......Page 474
Historians and World War I......Page 476
Representativeness......Page 480
Contingency......Page 482
Balance of Power......Page 487
Deterrence......Page 490
Crisis Management......Page 492
Conclusions......Page 495
Epilogue......Page 505
Deterrence and Compellence Redux......Page 506
Old Wine in New Bottles......Page 511
Tilting at the Conventional Wisdom......Page 518
Conclusion......Page 528
Notes......Page 529
Name Index......Page 538
Subject Index......Page 548