Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences
	Preface
		Who Should Read This Book?
		How Is This Book Different?
		How to Read This Book
	Acknowledgments
	Contents
	List of Figures
	List of Tables
	About the Author
	Chapter 1: Introduction
		References
	Part I: Diagnosis
	Chapter 2: Critical Decisions
		2.1 What Makes a Decision Critical?
		2.2 What Makes Critical Decisions So Difficult?
		2.3 Critical Decisions Are Processes, Not Events
		2.4 Alternative Approaches to Critical Decision-Making
		References
	Chapter 3: The Law of Unintended Consequences
		3.1 Merton’s Analysis of the Law of Unintended Consequences
		3.2 Significance of Merton’s Work
		References
	Chapter 4: Psychology of Critical Decision-Making
		4.1 Rational Choice Theory
		4.2 Tversky and Kahneman
		4.3 Cognitive Biases
		4.4 A Cognitive Model for Decision-Making
		4.5 Intuitions about Situational Dynamics
		4.6 Cognitive Biases Revisited
		References
	Chapter 5: Rational Decision-Making
		5.1 Herbert A. Simon
		5.2 Bounded Rationality
		5.3 Simon’s Critique of Rational Choice Theory
		5.4 Simon’s Cognitive Model for System 2 Thinking
		5.5 Critical Decision-Making in Simon’s Model
		5.6 Bounded Rationality Revisited
		References
	Part II: Treatment
	Chapter 6: Countering Cognitive Biases
		6.1 Countermeasures for Cognitive Biases
			6.1.1 Countering Pattern Recognition Biases
			6.1.2 Countering Action Biases
			6.1.3 Countering Stability Biases
			6.1.4 Countering Interest Biases
			6.1.5 Countering Social Biases
			6.1.6 Countering Dynamic Biases
		6.2 Checklists
		6.3 Biases and Process Improvement
		6.4 Overcoming Cognitive Biases: The Business Case
		References
	Chapter 7: Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Their Discontents
		7.1 Business Intelligence and Analytics in Brief
		7.2 Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Critical Decisions
		7.3 Predictive Analytics and Time
		References
	Chapter 8: Modeling and Simulation
		8.1 Why Modeling and Simulation?
		8.2 Modeling and Simulating Critical Decisions
		8.3 Dynamics
			8.3.1 Game Theory
			8.3.2 Utility Theory
			8.3.3 Agent-Based Systems (ABS) and Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
			8.3.4 System Dynamics (SD)
			8.3.5 Process Models
			8.3.6 Network Models
			8.3.7 War Games
		8.4 Uncertainty
			8.4.1 Monte Carlo
			8.4.2 Bayesian Inference
			8.4.3 Real Options
		8.5 Critical Decision Support Revisited
		References
	Chapter 9: Test Drive Your Critical Decisions
		9.1 Simulations: Not a Panacea
		9.2 Decision Test Drives
		9.3 Scenario Planning
		9.4 Simulating Scenarios and Decisions
		9.5 Decision Selection Rules
		9.6 Supporting the Decision Lifecycle
		9.7 Decision Test Drives Revisited
		References
	Part III: Praxis
	Chapter 10: Competitive Marketing Strategy
		10.1 Background on Drug Markets
		10.2 Competitive Drug Marketing
		10.3 Decision Model for Competitive Drug Marketing
			10.3.1 Performance Metrics
			10.3.2 Decision Inputs
			10.3.3 Situational Dynamics
		10.4 Test Drive Results
		10.5 Discussion
		References
	Chapter 11: Disruptive Growth
		11.1 Background on Net Markets
		11.2 Decision Model for Net Markets
			11.2.1 Performance Metrics
			11.2.2 Decision Inputs
			11.2.3 Situational Dynamics
		11.3 Test Drive Results
		11.4 Discussion
		References
	Chapter 12: Managing Enterprise Risk
		12.1 Background on Risk
		12.2 Risk-Based Resource Allocation: A Portfolio-Based Approach
		12.3 Decision Model for Managing Risk Reduction Portfolios
			12.3.1 Performance Metrics
			12.3.2 Decision Inputs
			12.3.3 Situational Dynamics
		12.4 Test Drive Results
		12.5 Discussion
		References
	Chapter 13: Enabling Organizational Change
		13.1 Background on Change
		13.2 Modeling Transformational Change
		13.3 Decision Model for Enabling Change
			13.3.1 Performance Metrics
			13.3.2 Decision Inputs
			13.3.3 Situational Dynamics
		13.4 Test Drive Results
		13.5 Discussion
		References
	Part IV: Coda
	Chapter 14: Pragmatics
		14.1 Trust
		14.2 Garbage In, Garbage Out
		14.3 Anticipating Unknown Unknowns
		14.4 Return on Investment of the Test Drive Method
		14.5 Other Benefits
		14.6 No Guarantees
		References
	Chapter 15: Summary
		References
	Appendix A: Categorizing Cognitive Biases
	Appendix B: More on Bounded Rationality
		Inadequate Knowledge
	Appendix C: Modeling and Simulation Examples
	Bibliography
	Index