Banking asset quality

Executive Summary......Page 2
AT A GLANCE......Page 4
Asset Quality: Leaning, But Not Falling......Page 5
Chart 3: Monetary actions have been swifter and sharper this time around......Page 6
Chart 4: Composition of the book is much more diversified compared with previous cycles......Page 7
Table 1: Probability of default (PD)......Page 9
Table 2: NPA forecast for banks......Page 10
Overall Sector View......Page 12
Table 3: Credit breakup (modified ) across three cycles......Page 13
Chart 5: Bank-wise LLP (FY08) and net slippage in FY10E......Page 14
Chart 6: Default risk not to impact RoAs illustrated with SBI as benchmark......Page 15
Chart 8: Impact of inflation, credit growth, and NPA......Page 16
Chart 10: Slowdown in exports and weakness in IIP growth have been followed by higher slippages in India......Page 17
Chart 12: Rise in rates has affected retail book......Page 18
Chart 14: SBI net slippage across business cycles......Page 19
Chart 16: SBI’s NPL burden has positive  correlation with leverage......Page 20
Fig. 1: Three instances of sharp asset quality deterioration in the past......Page 21
Fig. 2: Improvements which could make a difference this time......Page 23
Fig. 3: Legal channels and loss metrics for NPA performance......Page 25
Chart 17: Corporate leverage is low and coverage ratios are high......Page 26
Chart 18: Long term loans of banks have increased over years (housing andinfrastructure)......Page 27
Corporate Asset Quality......Page 28
Table 8: Pattern and sources of funds of Indian corporates (ex finance)......Page 29
Chart 19: Rise in term lending, reducing working capital cycle and strong profits required less working capital......Page 30
Chart 20: Improving India Inc.......Page 31
Chart 21: Rating watch shows MCR below 1 since FY03......Page 32
Chart 22: Squeezing working capital limit could have probably led to higher defaults......Page 33
Table 11: Stress sector exposure and gross NPA estimate for leading banks......Page 35
Table 12: Banks with exposure to infrastructure......Page 37
Chart 25: % of debt with D/E above 1 and ICOR below 2......Page 38
Table 15: Projects delayed in hydel power......Page 39
Table 17: Top industry exposure amongst select banks......Page 40
Chart 29: Weakness emerging in the sector......Page 41
Table 19: Axis Bank has top non fund exposure while SBI has most overall exposure......Page 42
Chart 33: Margins are weak but coverage has improved......Page 43
Chart 35: Companies with D/E >1 and ICOR <2......Page 44
Chart 37: Margins and coverage ratio are falling......Page 45
Chart 39: Companies with D/E >1 and ICOR <2......Page 46
Chart 41: Margins to fall sharply with falling prices......Page 47
Table 25: Top exposure amongst banks......Page 48
Chart 45: Comfortable margins and coverage ratio......Page 49
Chart 49: Margins are fairly weak......Page 50
Chart 53: Margins are fairly weak......Page 51
Table 29: Commercial real estate outstanding and exposure across players......Page 52
Chart 56: Demand outlook is fairly weak......Page 53
Chart 58: Commercial real estate delinquency and charge : Malaysia......Page 54
Chart 59: Score of <3 witnessed in two sectors but metals have higher proportion of high risk debt......Page 55
Chart 61: Performance of risky debt to NPA......Page 56
Chart 65: Construction is witnessing little stress......Page 57
Chart 71: Decline in demand in auto ancillaries......Page 58
Retail Asset Quality: First Bite......Page 59
Fig. 4: Risk spectrum of retail credit; safer asset class dominates, but proportion of unsecured credit rising......Page 60
Table 31: ICRA ABS pools analysed......Page 61
Table 32: Retail credit breakup of leading players as of Q2FY09......Page 62
Table 33: Retail NPA estimates of major banks......Page 63
Table 34: Snapshot assessing risk of retail credit......Page 64
Chart 74: Growth in mortgage disbursements......Page 65
Fig. 5: Structural risk mitigants easing NPL risk on mortgages......Page 66
Table 35: Comfortable coverage ratio despite a declining trend......Page 67
Table 36: Impact analysis on mortgage borrower as of October 2008......Page 69
Table 37: Mortgage book as of FY08......Page 70
Chart 78: Residential real estate performance to macro factors......Page 71
Chart 81: Residential real estate delinquency......Page 72
II. Auto loans: Slippages to rise; old portfolio to show more pain......Page 73
Chart 85: Slippages in CV portfolio peak in 18-24 months post origination......Page 74
Table 39: Cash flows for a CV driver; Q1FY08 conditions increase default risk......Page 76
Chart 88: Movement of diesel index and freight index......Page 77
Chart 89: Car delinquency in specific portfolio......Page 79
Chart 90: Peak two-wheeler delinquency for securitised pools......Page 80
Table 41: Unsecured loan portfolio of some large banks......Page 81
Chart 92: US experience on credit cards charge off in comparison to GDP......Page 82
Chart 93: Malaysian experience on credit cards charge off delinquency......Page 83
Table 42: Comparison with other Asian countries......Page 84
Chart 95: Composition of priority sector gross NPA......Page 85
Table 43: Relief measures offered by government in past few years helped improve asset quality......Page 86
Table 45: Agricultural loan book performance as of FY08......Page 87
Chart 100: Impact of loan waiver on gross NPA is limited for Bank of Baroda......Page 88
Chart 102: Company-wise gross NPAs show similartrend......Page 89
Table 47: Scenario analysis with 3% slippage for FY09......Page 90
Table 48: “Others” priority sector gross NPA as of FY08......Page 91
AXIS BANK......Page 92
Table 1: Break up of corporate exposure......Page 93
Operating ratios (%)......Page 94
ROA decomposition (%)......Page 95
Valuation metrics......Page 96
HDFC BANK......Page 98
Table 1: Break-up of corporate exposure......Page 99
Operating ratios (%)......Page 100
ROA decomposition (%)......Page 101
Valuation metrics......Page 102
ICICI BANK......Page 104
Table 3: Consolidated NPA outlook......Page 105
Operating ratios (%)......Page 106
ROA decomposition (%)......Page 107
Valuation metrics......Page 108
STATE BANK OF INDIA......Page 110
Table 3: Consolidated NPA outlook......Page 111
Operating ratios (%)......Page 112
ROA decomposition (%)......Page 113
Valuation metrics......Page 114
Chart 1: India Inc. still in investment phase; contribution to be back ended......Page 115
Table 1: Break up of credit......Page 116
Table 2: Break up of corporate credit......Page 117
Table 3: Break-up of investment by the Planning Commission......Page 120
Table 4: Thermal project commissioning schedule (updated as of Oct, 08)......Page 121
Table 5: Hydel project commissioning schedule (updated as of Oct, 08)......Page 123
Chart 5: Improving margins and comfortablecoverage......Page 124
Chart 9: Margins and coverage ratios are strong......Page 125
Chart 11: Companies with D/E >1 and ICOR < 2......Page 126
Chart 13: Margins and coverage ratios are sound......Page 127
Chart 17: Margins are expected to come under pressure......Page 128
Chart 21: Stable margins across business cycles......Page 129
Chart 25: Weak demand outlook can impactprofitability......Page 130
Chart 29: Margins and coverage ratios are strong......Page 131
Chart 33: Margins and coverage ratios are declining......Page 132
Table 15: Key assumptions for housing market......Page 133