Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change

Contents......Page 8
Preface......Page 4
Acknowledgments......Page 6
List of authors......Page 12
1.1 Scope of and approach to the assessment......Page 14
1.2 Structure of the assessment......Page 15
1.3 Key messages and policy directions......Page 18
2.1 Why is Australia so rich in biodiversity?......Page 20
2.2.1 Breaking free from Gondwana......Page 22
2.2.2 Continental drift to the dry mid-30 degree latitudes......Page 23
2.2.3 Missing the ice ages......Page 24
2.3 The first humans colonise Australia......Page 27
2.4 The next wave of human colonists: the Europeans......Page 28
2.6.1 Ecosystem services......Page 30
2.6.2 Utilitarian values of individual species......Page 31
2.7 Biodiversity in an economic context......Page 33
2.8 The nature of the challenge......Page 34
3.2 Underlying ecological principles......Page 36
3.3 Drivers of changes in Australia’s biodiversity......Page 43
3.3.1 Proximate drivers......Page 44
3.3.2 Ultimate (indirect) drivers......Page 49
3.4.2 Species-level changes......Page 53
3.4.3 Community- and ecosystem-level changes......Page 63
3.5 Australia’s biodiversity under pressure......Page 66
4.1 The nature of contemporary climate change......Page 70
4.2.1 Temperature......Page 71
4.2.2 Sea level......Page 74
4.4.1 Recent climatic trends in Australia......Page 75
4.4.2 Australia’s future climate......Page 80
5.1 A new and different stressor......Page 84
5.2.1 Underlying physiological processes......Page 85
5.2.2 Will species stay or move?......Page 86
5.3.2 Averages vs extremes......Page 92
5.3.3 Synergistic interactions and surprises......Page 93
5.4.1 Observed changes in species and communities......Page 94
5.4.2 Observed changes in ecosystems......Page 96
5.5.1 Which species will be ‘winners’ and ‘losers’?......Page 98
5.5.2 Predicted general trends......Page 104
5.5.3 Biodiversity hotspots......Page 105
5.5.4 Interaction of climate change with fire regimes, introduced species and water resource development......Page 112
5.6.1 Coping with complexity......Page 123
5.6.2 Modelling......Page 126
5.6.4 Dealing with uncertainty: ecological resilience and transformation......Page 127
5.7 The challenge for policy and management......Page 129
6.1 Ready for the climate change challenge?......Page 132
6.2 Current management principles......Page 133
6.3 Relevance of management principles to ecological principles......Page 136
6.4.1 Protected area networks......Page 138
6.4.2 Off-reserve conservation......Page 141
6.4.3 Managing threatening processes......Page 142
6.5 The current policy and institutional landscape......Page 144
6.6 A platform for adaptation to climate change?......Page 150
6.7.2 Resource limitations......Page 153
6.7.4 Key knowledge gaps......Page 154
7.1 Biodiversity at the crossroads......Page 156
7.2 The nature of the climate change threat in the 21st century......Page 157
7.3 Socio-economic trends that could affect biodiversity......Page 161
7.4 Guiding principles and approaches for managing biodiversity in the 21st century......Page 162
7.5 Strategies and tools to meet the climate change challenge......Page 165
7.5.1 Dealing with existing stresses and disturbances under a changing climate......Page 172
7.5.2 Managing for appropriate connectivity via both the reserve system and off-reserve conservation......Page 173
7.6 Building innovative governance systems......Page 174
7.7 Towards a systematic regional approach for biodiversity conservation in the 21st century......Page 177
7.8.1 Innovation, oversight and coordination......Page 179
7.8.2 Financial mechanisms......Page 185
7.8.4 Information demands......Page 186
7.8.6 Technology transfer and capacity-building......Page 188
8.1 Australia’s biotic heritage: valuable and worth conserving......Page 190
8.3 The challenge of climate change......Page 191
8.4 Biodiversity management in a changing climate......Page 192
8.5 Key messages and policy directions......Page 193
Glossary......Page 196
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 211
References......Page 212
Index......Page 238