Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
Figures......Page 13
Preface......Page 15
Acknowledgments......Page 19
1 The essence of Assumption-Based Planning......Page 21
HOW DOES ASSUMPTION-BASED PLANNING WORK?......Page 22
Identifying implicit assumptions in the plan......Page 25
Uncovering assumptions caused by planning......Page 26
Revisiting old assumptions......Page 27
WHO HAS USED ABP AND HOW DID IT FARE?......Page 28
Strengths......Page 29
Weaknesses......Page 31
HOW DO YOU KNOW ROBUST PLANS ARE BETTER?......Page 32
WHAT IS A PLANNING ASSUMPTION?......Page 34
THE TAXONOMIC TREE OF ASSUMPTIONS......Page 36
Assumptions about problems vs. assumptions about solutions......Page 37
Implicit vs. explicit assumptions......Page 39
Addressed vs. unaddressed assumptions......Page 41
Load-bearing vs. non–load-bearing assumptions......Page 42
Vulnerable vs. invulnerable assumptions......Page 44
One-sided vs. two-sided vulnerabilities......Page 45
Good vs. bad assumptions......Page 48
Levels of assumptions......Page 49
Directed vs. elected assumptions......Page 50
3 Step 1: identifying assumptions......Page 52
After planning has been completed......Page 53
As planning is just getting started......Page 55
GENERAL ASPECTS OF IDENTIFYING ASSUMPTIONS......Page 56
TECHNIQUES FOR IDENTIFYING ASSUMPTIONS......Page 57
“Telling planned actions the long way”......Page 58
Looking for wills and must......Page 59
Rationalizing a plan......Page 61
Asking the journalist’s questions......Page 67
Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing......Page 69
Driving Force Analysis......Page 70
Discovery-Driven Planning......Page 72
Core Belief Identification Squad......Page 74
Other techniques?......Page 75
WHICH TECHNIQUE TO USE WHEN......Page 76
Easiest and quickest......Page 78
HOW MANY ASSUMPTIONS TO IDENTIFY......Page 79
How many assumptions are enough?......Page 80
What if you have too many assumptions?......Page 81
4 Step 2: identifying load-bearing, vulnerable assumptions......Page 84
IDENTIFYING LOAD-BEARING ASSUMPTIONS......Page 86
Judgments about consequences......Page 88
Judgments about significant change......Page 89
Load-bearing assumptions in Discovery-Driven Planning......Page 90
IDENTIFYING VULNERABLE ASSUMPTIONS......Page 91
Potential biases in assessing vulnerability......Page 93
Avoiding bias in determining vulnerable assumptions......Page 97
Techniques for identifying load-bearing and vulnerability simultaneously......Page 98
Rip Van Winkle technique......Page 99
Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing......Page 103
RANKING THE LOAD-BEARING, VULNERABLE ASSUMPTIONS......Page 105
HOW MANY LOAD-BEARING, VULNERABLE ASSUMPTIONS WILL THERE BE?......Page 107
5 Step 3: identifying signposts......Page 111
DEFINITION OF SIGNPOST......Page 112
Aimpoints......Page 114
Indications and Warning......Page 115
Potential biases in recognizing important changes......Page 116
Using formal indicator systems......Page 120
Deriving signposts from aimpoints......Page 121
Imagining the road to failure......Page 122
LINKING SIGNPOSTS AND WARNING TIMES......Page 124
6 Step 4: developing shaping actions......Page 128
DEFINITION OF SHAPING ACTION......Page 129
To reduce the vulnerability......Page 131
To change the nature of the vulnerability......Page 132
IDENTIFYING EXISTING SHAPING ACTIONS......Page 134
Relevant theories of causation......Page 135
Historical and comparative experiences......Page 136
Creativity......Page 137
7 Step 5: developing hedging actions......Page 141
Contingency actions......Page 143
Hedging strategies......Page 146
“SELLING” HEDGING ACTIONS......Page 148
IDENTIFYING EXISTING HEDGING ACTIONS......Page 149
DEVELOPING HEDGING ACTIONS USING SCENARIOS......Page 150
Definition of scenario......Page 151
Requirements for good ABP scenarios......Page 153
Constructing scenarios......Page 158
Generating hedging actions from scenarios......Page 162
DEVELOPING HEDGING ACTIONS WITHOUT USING SCENARIOS......Page 166
Regulatory requirements......Page 167
GUARDING AGAINST UNDERHEDGING......Page 168
INTEGRATING HEDGING ACTIONS INTO A PLAN......Page 169
HEDGING ACTIONS AND REPLANNING......Page 170
8 The art of conducting ABP......Page 174
When to not do ABP......Page 175
Who should be involved......Page 176
The importance of getting the ABP effort sanctioned......Page 178
IDENTIFYING LOAD-BEARING, VULNERABLE ASSUMPTIONS......Page 179
Deal with tautologies and circular reasoning......Page 180
Keep the inquiry from getting too closed......Page 181
Keep the inquiry from getting too open......Page 182
Keep the inquiry from stalling......Page 183
Deal with breakdowns in collegiality......Page 184
Pay attention to style in facilitating an ABP session......Page 185
Use interview protocols......Page 186
Assess risk......Page 187
AGREEING ON SIGNPOSTS......Page 189
INTRODUCING SCENARIOS......Page 190
To avoid overselling ABP......Page 192
USING ABP DURING PLANNING......Page 193
Identifying planning problems......Page 194
Identifying plan problems......Page 195
Bringing fresh perspectives to the planning process......Page 196
Developing a strategic control system......Page 197
ASSUMPTION-BASED THINKING......Page 198
Analyzing assumptions for opportunities......Page 199
AN EXAMPLE OF ABT—ARMY NCO LEADER DEVELOPMENT......Page 200
FINAL WORD......Page 203
Appendix Assumption-Based Planning and the planning literature......Page 205
Strategic planning habits......Page 207
THE ORIGINS OF ASSUMPTION-BASED PLANNING......Page 209
ABP-like processes in the literature......Page 211
ABP concepts in the literature......Page 213
ABP words in the literature......Page 230
Bibliography......Page 237
Glossary......Page 249
Index......Page 257